Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Dual barrel low forming along the southeast coast at 108 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 There it is, forming along the Carolina coast at 117 hrs. sub 1000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Sub 996mb near Hatteras at 120 and climbing up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 sub 992mb at 123 hrs. just NE of Hatteras. Moderate precip up to south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 sub 992mb off the DelMarva at 126 hrs with moderate precip up to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 sub 988mb off the DelMarva at 132 hrs. South Jersey getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 sub 984 mb off NJ at 132 hrs. south Jersey gets crushed, NYC getting it good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 sub 980 south of LI at 135 hrs. NYC gets crushed. 850's and surface below freezing in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 wow, north jersey and NYC get absolutely hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 sub 976 near the Benchmark at 141, wrap around snows for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 looks like about 1.5 qpf for NYC and South Jersey and 1 inch back to the Delaware River in North Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 A dynamic beast for the area if the gfs is right, wow. H5 closes off the coast of jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 A dynamic beast for the area if the gfs is right, wow. H5 closes off the coast of jersey That's just gorgeous: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I hate to say it, but I think this is the solution that will happen with only minor changes here and there. The Euro was advertising this already a few times and the Canadian is not far behind. The NOGAPS also has a similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I hate to say it, but I think this is the solution that will happen with only minor changes here and there. The Euro was advertising this already a few times and the Canadian is not far behind. The NOGAPS also has a similar solution. I think Earthlight teamed up with Nate to run the 18z GFS this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Tasty....GFS closes off the H5 low right under the city. Dream scenario for this late in the season. The strength of the phasing and vort will be key here.....I'd like to see the GFS remain a bite progressive with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Forky loves the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Then they must have teamed up to run several previous runs of the EC that showed a similar solution, as well as today's Canadian and NOGAPS. Of course there is still the UKMET that bombs it out even more and makes it an inland runner. I think Earthlight teamed up with Nate to run the 18z GFS this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Then they must have teamed up to run several previous runs of the EC that showed a similar solution, as well as today's Canadian and NOGAPS. Of course there is still the UKMET that bombs it out even more and makes it an inland runner. I'm still worried of a solution that is too amped up as well. It's a delicate balance because we want the first low to be strong enough so that the second low doesn't run up into the Hudson, but weak enough so that it doesn't shove all the good baroclinicity to the east. Still lots of time for this, so stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I'm still worried of a solution that is too amped up as well. It's a delicate balance because we want the first low to be strong enough so that the second low doesn't run up into the Hudson, but weak enough so that it doesn't shove all the good baroclinicity to the east. Still lots of time for this, so stay tuned. But up the CT river wont be a bad thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 But up the CT river wont be a bad thing.. Snowicane/December 2000 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 1.60 total qpf in NYC with 1.4 of that almost definitely snow, if not all of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Snowicane/December 2000 redux? Ughh.. Too good to be true.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Highly unlikely solution...but where is atownwxwatcher with the NOGAPS? That should tell us for sure if this storm is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I guess we can beat 1995-1996 totals if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Not to be a Debbie downer, but it's still 5 days out and the 18z GFS, and it's early April, with the 850 zero line running about 80 miles north of NYC. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=03%2F27%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&fcast=03%2F27%2F2011+18UTC+129HR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I guess we can beat 1995-1996 totals if the GFS is right. How much does NYC have to date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 How much does NYC have to date? 61, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Not to be a Debbie downer, but it's still 5 days out and the 18z GFS, and it's early April, with the 850 zero line running about 80 miles north of NYC. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=03%2F27%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&areaDesc=North+America+-+US%2C+Canada%2C+and+northern+Mexico&fcast=03%2F27%2F2011+18UTC+129HR That's not the 850 line. That's the surface line. And right after that it drops below for NYC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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