earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 The surface temps are coming in warm because it falls at 18-21z but in reality it shouldn't be that big of a deal...it's definitely a plastering snow where it is snow..heavy and wet..but the 850 0c line gets to a line from PHL to NYC and no further north or west of that..and then crashes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Likely a dynamically driven rain to snow bomb for the immediate suburbs into the interior ..that is the craziest solution I have seen yet It sounds like we get dryslotted though. Who does the best on the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 NZucker might be passed out on the floor of his apartment at 1800' elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 27, 2011 Author Share Posted March 27, 2011 Here's Newark NJ at 18z Friday...Surface roughly 36.5 850 temps are -0.6 and 0.64" liquid in the past 6 hrs FRI 18Z 01-APR 2.7 -0.6 991 93 76 0.64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 NZucker might be passed out on the floor of his apartment at 1800' elevation LOL i knew this type of run was coming from the euro, just a matter a when..Curious if this type of solution holds..Remeber what HM said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 NZucker might be passed out on the floor of his apartment at 1800' elevation That's a close call, would probably be rain here and then flip over to snow for 1-3" at the end....Dobbs Ferry might be just a bit too close to the low pressure to see big totals. I'm going to be in Chicago on April 2nd, could get home a little after midnight if a big Nor'easter were in progress since I'm driving, but I'm planning to stick around Chi-town to see friends unless this turns into a total bomb. Definitely seems as if the ECM has been pretty consistent in advertising a big storm with the cut-off, and the 0z GFS definitely trended towards more of a phase. Given the lack of blocking, I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up a coastal hugger or inland runner, as several people have already mentioned...we're a little beyond the breakdown of the NAO block it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 LOL i knew this type of run was coming from the euro, just a matter a when..Curious if this type of solution holds..Remeber what HM said If the storm played out this way, I'd drive to my house in NE PA or find a motel somewhere in South-Central PA on the way back from Chicago....they get slammed on the Euro, and there's a lot of great elevation in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 If the storm played out this way, I'd drive to my house in NE PA or find a motel somewhere in South-Central PA on the way back from Chicago....they get slammed on the Euro, and there's a lot of great elevation in that area. zucker's journey to even higher elevation ftw..we'll see, i havent had to move all winter to see a blizzard. If a storm like this happens with a full phase, closed H5 with a track just inside the benchmark - we will get some great dynamics, heavy precipitation and hopefully timed at night. Could be a great ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 zucker's journey to even higher elevation ftw..we'll see, i havent had to move all winter to see a blizzard. If a storm like this happens with a full phase, closed H5 with a track just inside the benchmark - we will get some great dynamics, heavy precipitation and hopefully timed at night. Could be a great ending Yeah the problem is that I'm going to be in Chicago interviewing until 3PM or so, so it would take me a long, long time to get back to NYC....even driving fast, I couldn't get back until like 1AM, when the storm might be winding down. That's why I'd consider finding a motel in a rural area of Central/Western PA, which would shorten the drive by 3-4 hours and allow me to gain some elevation. I could also drive on I-86 to my parents' vacation home in NE PA, but that's still a 9-10 hour journey; the house is at 1500' in an elevated valley so does hold the cold really well, and really late in the season. I'm planning on staying in Chicago unless this is an absolute bomb, but I would drive back for the Euro for sure. One of the few storms I chased was the 2/25 Snowicane last year...I drove home from Middlebury College in Central VT to see my hometown get crushed with 26", just incredible for NYC metro, especially considering it was raining in VT. I also chased the 10/16/2009 Nor'easter in the Poconos, got a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Yeah the problem is that I'm going to be in Chicago interviewing until 3PM or so, so it would take me a long, long time to get back to NYC....even driving fast, I couldn't get back until like 1AM, when the storm might be winding down. That's why I'd consider finding a motel in a rural area of Central/Western PA, which would shorten the drive by 3-4 hours and allow me to gain some elevation. I could also drive on I-86 to my parents' vacation home in NE PA, but that's still a 9-10 hour journey; the house is at 1500' in an elevated valley so does hold the cold really well, and really late in the season. I'm planning on staying in Chicago unless this is an absolute bomb, but I would drive back for the Euro for sure. One of the few storms I chased was the 2/25 Snowicane last year...I drove home from Middlebury College in Central VT to see my hometown get crushed with 26", just incredible for NYC metro, especially considering it was raining in VT. I also chased the 10/16/2009 Nor'easter in the Poconos, got a few inches. good luck getting out of chicago at rush hour lol i think based on all the model runs so far, the tendency for storms to explode off our coast this year, and that HM is already 3/3 this year on snowstorms, this storm is probably going to happen. But the cold air will be so stale and its freakin april too. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 good luck getting out of chicago at rush hour lol i think based on all the model runs so far, the tendency for storms to explode off our coast this year, and that HM is already 3/3 this year on snowstorms, this storm is probably going to happen. But the cold air will be so stale and its freakin april too. We'll see Chicago can be a little tricky at rush hour but you are usually OK if you take I-94 and stay off Lake Shore Drive. I'm lucky that I've been there a bunch of times so sort of know my way around; it's one of my favorite cities besides San Francisco and NY. Some of the boulevards can save you time over the crowded interstate if you hit it at rush hour, and then you're fine once you get on 90/80 and get into Indiana. Indiana is a fast driving state since the speed limit is 70MPH and the cops are very lenient. Have to be careful in Ohio but can put the pedal to the metal in rural PA and of course Jersey where the fastest drivers in the country are... HM was talking about a snowstorm between April 5-10...he said this event might happen a little earlier with the NAO block decaying, but the GFS has also been showing a cold pattern around April 6-7 which could be the HM storm...he mentioned the -EPO being a catalyst for the storm, and the GFS does develop a nice AK block with an Aleutian low that keeps us below average again between April 5-10. That could be the last chance for flakes this season, and perhaps the window of opportunity that HM was originally interested in. The 0z GFS really hammers this idea home with a storm in that time frame but I've noticed all the runs have been consistent in bringing back the cold after a brief warm-up April 4th or so...Euro also does this on the 12z run. I don't have too much hope for the coast in the April 2nd storm...the cold air is just so stale as you say, and this has a lot of room to trend inland since we're losing the blocking pattern. You don't want to be starting with -1C 850s in April, you need real cold to see a snowfall unless it's a bomb with the absolute perfect track. Could it happen? Sure, but the elevated interior is clearly favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 From the 0z Euro - some qpf totals 1.38 Andover, NJ surface temps of 33.4 to 34.5 1.33 Morristown, NJ surface temps of 34.5 to 36.0 1.25 Caldwell, NJ surface temps of 34.5 to 36.0 1.23 Sussex, NJ surface temps of 32.9 to to 34.5 Now imagine, the Euro has been at least 2 degrees too warm with surface temps with every storm I can remember this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 New JB this morning - not clear though on where the rain/snow line sets up http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The 6z GFS ensemble mean looks VERY different than the operational run, consolidating the low near the Carolina coast and deepening it as it moves it north along the coast to a 996mb off the NJ coast and a 994mb near the Benchmark, with 850's below 0 for everyone, and -2 or less for everyone north of a Trenton to Sandy Hook line. Looks like a nice storm for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Verification scores at day 6 the GFS has moved to 4th place. 1st is ECMWF, 2nd UKMET, 3rd is the Canadian, 4th GFS, 5th is NOGAPS http://www.emc.ncep....html/acz6.html. I saw another chart that actually has the JMA in 3rd place ahead of the Canadian and GFS http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz6.html Question, what model is X? Is that the GFS - X? That model actually comes in 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Verification scores at day 6 the GFS has moved to 4th place. 1st is ECMWF, 2nd UKMET, 3rd is the Canadian, 4th GFS, 5th is NOGAPS http://www.emc.ncep....html/acz6.html. I saw another chart that actually has the JMA in 3rd place ahead of the Canadian and GFS http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz6.html Question, what model is X? Is that the GFS - X? That model actually comes in 3rd. This is going to be another nail biter for NYC metro and the final results will probably be similar to last weeks event region wide IMO ....................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 The JMA is actually now in 3rd place for verification behind the EC and UKMET. Day 5 - http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/index12z.html Day 6 - http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/index12z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 JMA has done well this winter. Been following it but don't post it because people think it's terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 HPC Preliminary - keeps the LP just off the coast (NYC metro snowlovers would prefer a track slightly more east)- question remains how much cold enough air remains at all levels and how strong this system gets and time of day is more important this time of year obviously http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day5nav_pre.html JD just posted his outlook - seems bullish on big snows somewhere - but doesn't say where yet http://www.weatherbell.com/jd/?category_name=blog_home_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 That goes for the NOGAPS also. One of our newer posters was flipping out because I posted the NOGAPS the other day, which was showing a solution very similar to all of the other models now. The GFS is now ahead of only the NOGAPS, so these people should keep that in mind. The GFS is currently in 4th place behind the JMA and ahead of only the NOGAPS. JMA has done well this winter. Been following it but don't post it because people think it's terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 That track is actually further east than the ECMWF is showing and the ECMWF has most people west of New York as wet snow already. That track looks to be based off of the GFS ensemble mean, which takes that track and keeps us all snow. HPC Preliminary - keeps the LP just off the coast (NYC metro snowlovers would prefer a track slightly more east)- question remains how much cold enough air remains at all levels and how strong this system gets and time of day is more important this time of year obviously http://www.hpc.ncep....ay5nav_pre.html JD just posted his outlook - seems bullish on big snows somewhere - but doesn't say where yet http://www.weatherbe...=blog_home_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Great links. Thank you. HPC Preliminary - keeps the LP just off the coast (NYC metro snowlovers would prefer a track slightly more east)- question remains how much cold enough air remains at all levels and how strong this system gets and time of day is more important this time of year obviously http://www.hpc.ncep....ay5nav_pre.html JD just posted his outlook - seems bullish on big snows somewhere - but doesn't say where yet http://www.weatherbe...=blog_home_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 This guy actually thinks the GFS will be the model that verifies with an inland solution even mentions severe weather for us... I would like some comments on this one... http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/prometweatherblogs/12/2/4494/Mid-Week-and-Late-Week-Storm-Analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 6 of the 12 ensemble members from the 6z GFS produce a major snow storm for our area with a deep low pressure center just off the coast. My favorite one is P002 at 150 hrs. (the 4th one to the right on the top of the 150 hr panel) It has a 968mb low off the DelMarva with snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Sure, ride the wave of the 4th best model and forget about the 1st best and the ensemble mean of the GFS (the model he is using to make his forecast). Good idea. This guy actually thinks the GFS will be the model that verifies with an inland solution even mentions severe weather for us... I would like some comments on this one... http://www.liveweath...-Storm-Analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Sure, ride the wave of the 4th best model and forget about the 1st best and the ensemble mean of the GFS (the model he is using to make his forecast). Good idea. Keep in mind, those charts are hemispheric. If anyone actually thinks the UKMET is the 2nd best model in this area, they have never made an actual forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 Taken from the updated preliminary discussion from HPC. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE THERE IS A GENERAL TREND OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES TOWARD ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC THEN SRN NEW ENG COASTS FRI/SAT AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUN. BEST FITTING THIS SCENARIO IS THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT HPC PROGS THAT FULLY UTILIZED THAT GUIDANCE TODAY WERE MANUALLY ADJUSTED TO SHOW THREAT FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP LOW CONSIDERING AMPLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL FORECAST SUPPORT FOR SUCH A DEEP SYSTEM AND ALSO KEEPING IN MIND HOW WELL THE SYSTEMS SEEM IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/OBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I do understand what you are saying but at least it is for the Northern Hemisphere. Are there accuracy ratings anywhere for just the United States? Keep in mind, those charts are hemispheric. If anyone actually thinks the UKMET is the 2nd best model in this area, they have never made an actual forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I do understand what you are saying but at least it is for the Northern Hemisphere. Are there accuracy ratings anywhere for just the United States? They don't really publish any. Perhaps the UKMET is GREAT in Europe. I don't know. All I know is that it has serious issues in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 27, 2011 Share Posted March 27, 2011 I agree the UKMET does not seem good in this area, but I am just wondering if it just seems that way to us? Maybe it does not do as well with the low pressure centers with individual storms that we pay most attention to, but it does better when we are not paying as much attention with less important storms? Or maybe it does better in Europe. I don't know. Thank you for your input on this. They don't really publish any. Perhaps the UKMET is GREAT in Europe. I don't know. All I know is that it has serious issues in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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