earthlight Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html You can loop the 00z CMC NHEM maps to see the general idea of what's going on with the pattern evolution. Try and follow along (I like to do these longer posts at night, lol) the guidance is telling us that the big Central Canadian ridge will build as quickly as 138-144 hours (go there to see it, it's huge). This feature, working in tandem with the blocking developing over Greenland, will force the psuedo-Polar Vortex north of New England to retrograde west and then back south, dropping into the Northeast US. There are a few things to consider here. Obviously with this blocking forcing the Polar Vortex to retrograde there will be a period of a gradient type pattern between the Southeast Ridge which is stronger now than it was this winter. You can see the Pacific jet is still active and energy is flying underneath the Central Canadian block along the gradient between the SE Ridge and the Polar Vortex. Where this gradient sets up will ultimately determine where the snow falls. The Canadian, which is the link we're following along with, has this gradient to the north and gives the snow to New England. But the final snow threat in this synoptic setup may occur when this Polar Vortex finally does decide to drop southwest and south into the Northeast. Any further west towards the Great Lakes and we may be looking at a coastal system. We'll see, but this entire pattern evolution is peculiar and will be fun to watch unfold. Edit for the visual..this is after the initial gradient threat but it still gets the point across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 sweet post, so if there is a shot at a coastal it would have to phase with the PV correct? kinda like what the GFS had last night and what the euro is showing tonight... long shot as you would need heights to rise fast to get it over the BM, but still there will be overunning prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 sweet post, so if there is a shot at a coastal it would have to phase with the PV correct? kinda like what the GFS had last night and what the euro is showing tonight... long shot as you would need heights to rise fast to get it over the BM, but still there will be overunning prior Yeah it's a long shot. But it's not as if the potential doesn't exist. Considering where we've been the past month, this pattern should be mouth watering to those who want to see some final flakes before we all don our shorts and nzucker gets out to do is garden work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Might need a wind advisory Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Just looked at Central Park records for late next week and came across the fact that Central Park had record lows on April 6, 7, and 8 1982, quite possibly the last time Central Park had three days in a row with record lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Not trying to be a d***, seriously, but the 162 threat on the GFS is hundreds of miles to our south, the 216 hour threat has a very marginal temperature setup (not using the 2m temps at this range verbatim, but the lack of a supportive cold air source and the resulting crappy thermal profiles), the 288 hour threat is too far north and again has no cold air source, and the 348 hour threat...which is into Mr. Rogers fantasy land is probably the best of the setups. This is taking the 00z GFS verbatim..but I think you used this run to advertise the snowy potential which it does not. Again, verbatim. The ECM does show the Day 6/7 overrunning threat to be further to the north than the GFS, and that developing coastal could certainly affect the NYC metro. To me, the PNA ridging looks a little flat to support a big coastal coming north, which would be more likely around March 30th, but it's not totally impossible given the 50/50 low and -NAO. In terms of the 216-hour threat, thermal profiles look pretty decent to me, as there's a strong block over Central Canada creating a cold vortex over the Canadian Maritimes, and that cold is filtering down to the NYC area. At 216 hours, 850s are -5C, and they warm to -3C during the precipitation at 228 hours. To me, this suggests a snow event, but it would be marginal for urban areas if it occurred during the day. For the northern suburbs with some elevation, I'd feel pretty comfortable with -3C/-4C 850s in late March, probably wouldn't accumulate a ton but you'd definitely get some snow on the grassy surfaces. I was mostly saying that the 0z GFS lost the uber-warm look it had previously had in the long range. It had always showed the cold spell next week, but previous runs warmed us up to +10C 850s in late March/early April after a brief chance at wintry weather. This run looks to have a much more sustained -NAO and better PNA ridging out towards Day 10. That's all I was really saying, as it's much too early to discuss the specific temperature profiles and tracks of storms. We need to wait a few more days for that, but I have a feeling some will be surprised with the magnitude of the cold, and potentially the snow. You had snow in May 2002? Wow... I remember we had a three day heatwave in April that year when it topped out at 96. It almost was a four day heatwave as the fourth day it made it to 89. I think it was around May 13th or so...our cabin in the Poconos is around 1500' elevation, and we probably picked up 1-2" on grassy surfaces. I should have gone for a hike in the higher ridges but didn't know enough about the weather to do so at that point. I did go hiking during the October 2009 event, had only a dusting at my house but found 3" of solid snow at ~2300', looked extremely cool against the red leaves of the maple and pin oaks at that point in the autumn. I remember being amazed as I drove from Middlebury to PA on the night of October 14th, hitting moderate snow near Walton, NY on Route 8 as I ascended one of the bigger hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Yeah it's a long shot. But it's not as if the potential doesn't exist. Considering where we've been the past month, this pattern should be mouth watering to those who want to see some final flakes before we all don our shorts and nzucker gets out to do is garden work. I guess any snow past the Ides of March is a long shot down here. I'd really love to get a decent event as I have 65.75" recorded this season and need just 2.5" to get past last year's seasonal snowfall total. 10-11 was a superior winter so I'd like to have more snow to show for it, would be really disappointing not to make the 68" measured in 09-10 after having over 55" at the end of January 2011. I am just totally in love with snow so I will take it at any point in the year; I even enjoyed a mid-August snowfall I witnessed back in 2000 at the Columbia Icefields in Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada. And yes, it's time to get the garden going. I just put in my order from Seed Savers Exchange, a company that specializes in heirloom and organic seeds. This summer, I will be growing cucumbers, several varieties of tomatoes including a Brandywine heirloom, some European squashes, and two different types of eggplant...I will start a few of these inside and then transplant them in May, as well as getting some seedlings from the local nursery, but will be direct-sowing peas and lettuce in early April once this cold snap ends. I wouldn't be shocked if we went to a warm pattern after the blocking blows up in early April, and peas/lettuce don't mind an occasional light frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I guess any snow past the Ides of March is a long shot down here. I'd really love to get a decent event as I have 65.75" recorded this season and need just 2.5" to get past last year's seasonal snowfall total. 10-11 was a superior winter so I'd like to have more snow to show for it, would be really disappointing not to make the 68" measured in 09-10 after having over 55" at the end of January 2011. I am just totally in love with snow so I will take it at any point in the year; I even enjoyed a mid-August snowfall I witnessed back in 2000 at the Columbia Icefields in Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada. And yes, it's time to get the garden going. I just put in my order from Seed Savers Exchange, a company that specializes in heirloom and organic seeds. This summer, I will be growing cucumbers, several varieties of tomatoes including a Brandywine heirloom, some European squashes, and two different types of eggplant...I will start a few of these inside and then transplant them in May, as well as getting some seedlings from the local nursery, but will be direct-sowing peas and lettuce in early April once this cold snap ends. I wouldn't be shocked if we went to a warm pattern after the blocking blows up in early April, and peas/lettuce don't mind an occasional light frost. Early April? I would wait until April 20th to do anything like that outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 I guess any snow past the Ides of March is a long shot down here. I'd really love to get a decent event as I have 65.75" recorded this season and need just 2.5" to get past last year's seasonal snowfall total. 10-11 was a superior winter so I'd like to have more snow to show for it, would be really disappointing not to make the 68" measured in 09-10 after having over 55" at the end of January 2011. I am just totally in love with snow so I will take it at any point in the year; I even enjoyed a mid-August snowfall I witnessed back in 2000 at the Columbia Icefields in Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada. And yes, it's time to get the garden going. I just put in my order from Seed Savers Exchange, a company that specializes in heirloom and organic seeds. This summer, I will be growing cucumbers, several varieties of tomatoes including a Brandywine heirloom, some European squashes, and two different types of eggplant...I will start a few of these inside and then transplant them in May, as well as getting some seedlings from the local nursery, but will be direct-sowing peas and lettuce in early April once this cold snap ends. I wouldn't be shocked if we went to a warm pattern after the blocking blows up in early April, and peas/lettuce don't mind an occasional light frost. hahah, you make gardening sound like a surgery somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Early April? I would wait until April 20th to do anything like that outside. You want to start peas, lettuce, and arugula early as they are frost hardy and don't like the heat. You want to be harvesting your crop by early-mid June before the serious summer heat arrives. As long as temperatures don't drop below 25F, none of these vegetables is going to be harmed. They actually grow fastest when it's a bit chilly...50s and 60s by day and 30s at night is perfect. I'm not expecting to get into the low 20s once early April arrives as that would be very rare here. Usually we see a couple frosts in April, but it's more like temperatures around 30F, not brutally cold. 0z ECM has a severe cold snap with three days in a row with 850s around -12C. Highs would be in the mid 30s around the region, maybe low 30s outside the city. This would probably get March's temperature anomaly back near average despite such a mild start. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Im hoping for a severe cold snap in early April too-- we've had lows in the mid and upper 20s in early April, even if it didnt snow, on a few occasions. That kind of cold snap slows down the allergy season quite nicely After April 10, that usually doesn't happen, but the first ten days of April are fair game. BTW any snow on the Euro in that time frame? Doesnt the EURO have a bit of a warm bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 -NAO possibly due to the unfrozen waters of the Arctic, which may be linked to global warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 A lot has to go perfect for a snowstorm to happen this late in the year, however, the pattern depicted on the 00z gfs is not so far off from producing a little saomething at all. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ The second image is the pattern a couple days after the big storm in April 82. It produced another little event on the 9th for the mid-Atl. 1.3" measured in New Brunswick, 25/38 for low/high temps that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Even the 0z Euro as is from last night, LGA still gets .22" of qpf, as 100% all snow, based on text soundings and skew t diagrams. Areas just south, around Sandy Hook, receive close to .40" qpf as all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Alot of our bigger, non-miller A type of events have come out of similar patterns to this one. The right amount of phasing with the blocking and cold air in place favors an overrunning type scenario transitioning to a slow moving coastal. We don't always have to have a bomb to get high snow totals. I just took a look back at some of the info on PDII. The airmass out ahead of it was very cold. The system developed over the Rockies and then transitioned eastward dumping heavy snow over the midwest and as far East as NJ. Then, it transfered to a coastal off the Carolina Coast giving us a double whammy. I see some similarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Alot of our bigger, non-miller A type of events have come out of similar patterns to this one. The right amount of phasing with the blocking and cold air in place favors an overrunning type scenario transitioning to a slow moving coastal. We don't always have to have a bomb to get high snow totals. I just took a look back at some of the info on PDII. The airmass out ahead of it was very cold. The system developed over the Rockies and then transitioned eastward dumping heavy snow over the midwest and as far East as NJ. Then, it transfered to a coastal off the Carolina Coast giving us a double whammy. I see some similarities. I do not see any similarities whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Looking less likely that March will end snowless. 12z ECM and 12z GFS both show snow for NYC metro next Wednesday with surface temps in the low-mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Alot of our bigger, non-miller A type of events have come out of similar patterns to this one. The right amount of phasing with the blocking and cold air in place favors an overrunning type scenario transitioning to a slow moving coastal. We don't always have to have a bomb to get high snow totals. I just took a look back at some of the info on PDII. The airmass out ahead of it was very cold. The system developed over the Rockies and then transitioned eastward dumping heavy snow over the midwest and as far East as NJ. Then, it transfered to a coastal off the Carolina Coast giving us a double whammy. I see some similarities. Is this a serious post? this is the NARR on PDII. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2003/us0217j5.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Is this a serious post? this is the NARR on PDII. http://www.meteo.psu...03/us0217j5.php i love how the low never deepened, yet there was widespread 2 feet, then you got dec 26th which was sub 975 and the epic amounts were in a small area. Probly all due to the southern jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 i love how the low never deepened, yet there was widespread 2 feet, then you got dec 26th which was sub 975 and the epic amounts were in a small area. Probly all due to the southern jet Also due to the temp. differences and the strength of the high to the North in '03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 18, 2011 Share Posted March 18, 2011 Also due to the temp. differences and the strength of the high to the North in '03. true, mass overunning well ahead of the low with that strong high and the low crawled up the coast, classic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Looks like a chance for snow on Thurs, there is decent agreement from the ECMWF, GFS and GEM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Even the 0z Euro as is from last night, LGA still gets .22" of qpf, as 100% all snow, based on text soundings and skew t diagrams. Areas just south, around Sandy Hook, receive close to .40" qpf as all snow. Sounds somewhat like April 2003. Another daytime event which may have some similarities occurred in late March 1994 -- it was the last event of that memorable winter and we picked up 3-4 inches.... when the snow rates were moderate to heavy it accumulated and when it lightened up you could see that what had already fallen was starting to melt from the driveways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Looks like a chance for snow on Thurs, there is decent agreement from the ECMWF, GFS and GEM.. Upton is really playing it conservative - just light snow mixed with rain showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I do not see any similarities whatsoever. I wasn't trying to say the current setup as depicted by the latest model runs is anything like PDII but I was pointing out the similarities with overrunning transitioining to a weak coastal. If things evolve a little, I dont see why we can't get heights to rise fast enough. Of course alot has to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Upton is really playing it conservative - just light snow mixed with rain showers 12z euro, 18z GFS and 12z Ggem are not much snow. Euro has 1"-2" of slop. 18z GFS only had rain to wet snow and Ggem was rain to maybe 1"-2". Storm is looking more and more like it will get squashed by confluence to our north. Trends are for a flat wave, that gets squashed in the cold sector. Let's hope trends change over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Upton is really playing it conservative - just light snow mixed with rain showers I think that at this point, there is no other way to play it. We are not talking about a major storm yet (and may never be doing so for this one). We are not talking about temperatures below freezing for any extended period of time if at all. I do not see how you can blow this up right now. Things could change, but will they? The pieces of the puzzle would have to fall into place perfectly. That has happened several times this season, but not since January. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 GFS is more north and much wetter then 18z. .50"-.75". Coast is fighting boundary temps though. Nice to see it more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 GFS is more north and much wetter then 18z. .50"-.75". Coast is fighting boundary temps though. Nice to see it more amped up. It doesn't really matter with the temps we're gonna have wednesday into thursday. We're talking late March here. Not early March. In late March you need a way below normal airmass in place to get accumulating snow in the NYC area. What we have for this potential system simply won't cut it. Even if temps fall to the mid 30s, there's no way it would accumulate on the warm ground. Lee Goldberg put it best tonight ... he said rain with possibly some wet snow mixed in. If you see a little wet snow, be happy. Anyone that thinks we're getting accumulating snow with very borderline temps in late March is really reaching here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Upton is really playing it conservative - just light snow mixed with rain showers That's a smart call, it's far out and we're talking about a late season snowstorm. They have changed my forecast from all rain to a mix, however: Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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