yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 They look identical to me. I think there has been a slight edge northward. Anywho... will be interesting to see how this night unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 from new day 1 AS COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT...EXPECT TSTMS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A QLCS ALONG FRONT NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH PERHAPS ONE DOMINANT PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND OF TSTMS FORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 They look identical to me. 12Z, 16Z and 20Z have been, for all intents and purposes, the same thing. Granted, they pegged it pretty well with the original version (the 12Z), so it's not that big of a deal IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 from new day 1 AS COLD FRONT AND SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT...EXPECT TSTMS TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A QLCS ALONG FRONT NWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH PERHAPS ONE DOMINANT PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND OF TSTMS FORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS. GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/ AND A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN. That was a copy from the 1630 SPC OTLK Ian... what are you thinking for tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12Z, 16Z and 20Z have been, for all intents and purposes, the same thing. Granted, they pegged it pretty well with the original version (the 12Z), so it's not that big of a deal IMO. Seems like one of the rarer times when they make very few changes. Stable SPC FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Seems like one of the rarer times when they make very few changes. Stable SPC FTW. Until the 0100 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 That was a copy from the 1630 SPC OTLK Ian... what are you thinking for tonight? ahh.. doing too many things at once. stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Until the 0100 OTLK ahh.. doing too many things at once. stormy Multitasking FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Wind advisory now been give URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 301 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ042-050>057-501-502- 010415- /O.EXB.KLWX.WI.Y.0012.101201T0300Z-101201T1600Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF... ST MARYS CITY...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK... FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON 301 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY. * TIMING...GUSTS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING. * WINDS...GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 ARW Local model (LWX) pic from the 15z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 ARW Local model (LWX) pic from the 15z run. That looks pretty nasty at 8 AM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 gusts to 45-50 just in the main frontal passage with embedded higher w/ best convection.. wont be hard to lay down numerous reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 gusts to 45-50 just in the main frontal passage with embedded higher w/ best convection.. wont be hard to lay down numerous reports Although do non tstm winds go into the master SPC map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Although do non tstm winds go into the master SPC map? no but that's not what i meant anyway.. if you have conditions that are going to produce 45+ gusts you dont have much more to go in convection to hit severe criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 63/51 SE 14 G 24 at KDCA for 3 PM OB 61/51 SE 16 G 25 at KIAD at 3 PM OB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 no but that's not what i meant anyway.. if you have conditions that are going to produce 45+ gusts you dont have much more to go in convection to hit severe criteria. Gotcha. Yeah and I bet just off the surface winds will be even higher. I haven't had a look at BUFKIT in the last 12 hours. 63/51 SE 14 G 24 at KDCA for 3 PM OB We need to get the dews up. Isn't that a decrease of a degree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Gotcha. Yeah and I bet just off the surface winds will be even higher. I haven't had a look at BUFKIT in the last 12 hours. We need to get the dews up. Isn't that a decrease of a degree? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 dews should get into the mid-upper 50s in the dc area by later today i think .. a degree shift is unimportant, 50+ will do prob anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 ARW Local model (LWX) pic from the 15z run. I guess I won't need to set my alarm for the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 WOW ARW Local model (LWX) pic from the 15z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 BUFKIT has 73kts of wind at just under 5kft around 7am tomorrow morning. 57kts at 3kft and 45kts at 2kft (12z NAM Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 12z GFS BUFKIT (DCA) 5:00am tomorrow morning 70kts of wind at just above 3kft and 59kts of wind at 2kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Really if we get anything like what the locally run ARW says, on top of the 45-50mph gusts, this could be a very strong damaging wind event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Really if we get anything like what the locally run ARW says, on top of the 45-50mph gusts, this could be a very strong damaging wind event. i doubt that line is uber intense.. these thin bands are not often so. there are limits but there should be some reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 i doubt that line is uber intense.. these thin bands are not often so. there are limits but there should be some reports. Agree I'd say 60-70mph worst case scenario with maybe a spinup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Agree I'd say 60-70mph worst case scenario with maybe a spinup. Did the line fire up West of the mountains and hold together or did it form elsewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Did the line fire up West of the mountains and hold together or did it form elsewhere? Well verbatim on that model it looks a little messy W of mountains and then kind of congeals and becomes clearer east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Temp, dews and winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Well verbatim on that model it looks a little messy W of mountains and then kind of congeals and becomes clearer east. yeah I know how that movie ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Who thinks a watch will go up and when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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