Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Sorry but there is way to much moaning and groaning going on once again in the March thread about Spring and or what some expect come March 1st and well i am tired of reading it. Have this same crap every year starting in mid Feb or so and really ramps up come March 1st BUT what makes it worse is hearing the moaning and complaining ( and wishcasting too ) after the past 2 March's in a row. I mean WTF? Many are either totally clueless about where they live ( Climo ) or simply just wanna find something to b**ch about. Whatever it is i am tired of it. So please keep the complaining about lack of spring warmth or whatever out of this thread. Thanks. Personally i don't care what happens because well it is March and climo says it can snow into May or be 80 in these parts if it wants so no need to b**ch over it. Anyways for the winter fans i figured i would do up a separate March thread to discuss cold and snow. I would rather have it all in one thread but i cannot take the complaining and wishcasting in the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Looking at the models long range still shows storms and cold weather so let's go with it. Any one of these storms could blowup into a major snowstorm for many in this forum so if it's going to be cold and wintry then let it happen. I am always up for another storm in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Not sure who this is directed at. I can only speak for myself and I've said that I want winter done with when I get to 50". I don't think I'm going to get my wish though in terms of a sustained above average pattern. This March is shaping up to be different than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 the pattern certainly looks to stay very active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Looking at the models long range still shows storms and cold weather so let's go with it. Any one of these storms could blowup into a major snowstorm for many in this forum so if it's going to be cold and wintry then let it happen. I am always up for another storm in Chicago. The only reason i have not *totally* pulled the trigger yet is well the last 2 March's in a row. Normally * Nina climo * says the cold and snow holds on a bit longer as does the solar stuff but ALA we saw what happened Last Year and the March before granted it did snow that April again. The euro weeklies starting on the 7th has areas from IN/MI south and east normal and going below normal west/nw of there and the following week has it slightly below normal for the region as a whole from the MS river on east with normal west of there except along the Canadian border which is a shade below normal. And normal to slightly below ( OV ) the following week. We'll see anyways. These are not the end all either and i have seen them change drastically a few times since i started following them a little over a year ago. As is usually the case the models tend to struggle when we are changing seasons. Unsure of exactly why that is but they do. See it in Nov etc ( mid-Late fall/early winter ) and again late in winter/early-mid spring and thus late Feb into March etc. Thus something to keep in mind before getting overly excited or whatever over a few model runs beyond day 3. Will save yourself a ton of grief. As for me if it wants to snow into May then heck go for it. I am always game. Same thing if severe wx wants to get rolling around here. Just keep it active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 Not sure who this is directed at. I can only speak for myself and I've said that I want winter done with when I get to 50". I don't think I'm going to get my wish though in terms of a sustained above average pattern. This March is shaping up to be different than last year. You RARELY if ever b**ch or wishcast and so no it was not directed at you. You probably know that though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Sorry but there is way to much moaning and groaning going on once again in the March thread about Spring and or what some expect come March 1st and well i am tired of reading it. Have this same crap every year starting in mid Feb or so and really ramps up come March 1st BUT what makes it worse is hearing the moaning and complaining ( and wishcasting too ) after the past 2 March's in a row. I mean WTF? Many are either totally clueless about where they live ( Climo ) or simply just wanna find something to b**ch about. Whatever it is i am tired of it. So please keep the complaining about lack of spring warmth or whatever out of this thread. Thanks. Personally i don't care what happens because well it is March and climo says it can snow into May or be 80 in these parts if it wants so no need to b**ch over it. Anyways for the winter fans i figured i would do up a separate March thread to discuss cold and snow. I would rather have it all in one thread but i cannot take the complaining and wishcasting in the other. My friends on Facebook and 75% of the people I know do it every year, starting in February..."Waaaaah, I want Spring....Spring is coming, yay!" blah blah blah I think all the snow-hating news anchors on tv get them started... March Winter-related topic: The GFS is back to teasing us with more snowstorms in the mid-long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 2, 2011 Author Share Posted March 2, 2011 My friends on Facebook and 75% of the people I know do it every year, starting in February..."Waaaaah, I want Spring....Spring is coming, yay!" blah blah blah I think all the snow-hating news anchors on tv get them started... March Winter-related topic: The GFS is back to teasing us with more snowstorms in the mid-long range. Honestly? Every time i have had someone do it in front of me i have busted out laughing at them. Thus how silly i think it is. Basically like complaining about heat in the south in Sept. And yep as said the models will struggle and thus flip flop more often then not in the mid/long range. Personally i think we are good for a few more snows and i still think there is another big dump to be had as well before all is said and done with snowfall. This is based a bit on Nino to nina climo, QBO etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2011 Share Posted March 2, 2011 Honestly..Its not a b**ch session when someone is only welcoming the warmth of spring. Winter gets long. Yes the snowstorms and tracking them with you guys is a blast. But some of us..including myself are "wishing" for warmth. It gets you fired up for severe weather. I know there is a fine line between wishcasting and "welcoming" and your correct on a weather forum all bias's should be left at your home page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Theres nothing wrong with wanting spring; but as Harry said, every year it gets CRAZY March 1st with people moaning about wanting winter over. Its one thing to here that from the general public, esp after a harsh winter like this, but you dont want to hear fellow snowlovers doing so! Ive seen it every year, and then as soon as someone gets a snowstorm their attitude of wanting spring so bad changes instantly lol. March 2008 (with snowstorms of 10", 4", 7", and 5") is fresh in my mind. No thats not normal, but 2009+2010 March was a freak fluke. How ridiculous does this look: FEB 2010 + FEB 2011: 60.4" of snow imby MAR 2009 + MAR 2010: 0.6" of snow imby Normal FEB snow: ~9" Normal MAR snow: ~7" The point is, while the days of snowcover are on the wane big time, the days of snowstorms are not CLOSE to being done, esp north of I80, from a climo perspective. There is almost always shovelable snow after March 1st in DTW/ORD/MKE/etc....and many times we can get some major snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I love spring weather--it is most definitely the most exciting weather of the year--and it is a meteorologists dream once spring weather kicks in across the plains and Great Lakes. The prospects of deep, moist convection and bombing ejecting lee cyclones all in one are as exciting as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 better have this thread because next week the snowmelt crowd is gonna be honking away in the lakes you guys could start seeing the brown stuff : ( but it'll get cold behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 better have this thread because next week the snowmelt crowd is gonna be honking away in the lakes you guys could start seeing the brown stuff : ( but it'll get cold behind that. Not as cold as it would be if there was snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 its over for us Southerners... Late Nina conditions ramping up FTL.. Congrats, dakota's and gods country. While we enjoy and watching robins pick worms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Not as cold as it would be if there was snowcover. well if the gfs long range is correct you'll be 20-30 degrees below climo by the end of next week, alot of the models keep much of the midwest well below climo into the 2nd and 3rd week of march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 its over for us Southerners... Nina FTL.. Congrats, dakota's and gods country. While we enjoy and watching robins pick worms. Get ready for Harry's wrath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Get ready for Harry's wrath. things have been way too quiet lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Get ready for Harry's wrath. Same hairy that was bitching about his winter being a total failure. Meh.. It's over. Any storm that ramps up is rain here.. Why kid yourself. Suppose anything can happen but I don't see any signs that point to gassing up the snow thrower again in the near future. Sure anything can happen down the road but that road for a time being is closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Meh.. It's over. Any storm that ramps up is rain here.. Why kid yourself. Noting going to get the 1.8" to reach 50" here. I'll have to bump up the GHD Blizzard total to reach it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 well if the gfs long range is correct you'll be 20-30 degrees below climo by the end of next week, alot of the models keep much of the midwest well below climo into the 2nd and 3rd week of march Analog96 told me that the models are horrible and worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Analog96 told me that the models are horrible and worthless. true... we should petition for the NGM, ETA, AVN, to come back these models SUCK..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 true... we should petition for the NGM, ETA, AVN, to come back these models SUCK..... I think we need to bring back the 2-layer barotropic models from the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Analog96 told me that the models are horrible and worthless. Anal log 96 has his own MOS data and snowfall accumulations that are calculated within his own brain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Anal log 96 has his own MOS data and snowfall accumulations that are calculated within his own brain I bet he calculates and integrates the linearized N-S equations in his head too and develops his own deterministic forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I bet he calculates and integrates the linearized N-S equations in his head too and develops his own deterministic forecasts. Yes. AMDL96 Anal Mos Data Log 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Anal log 96 has his own MOS data and snowfall accumulations that are calculated within his own brain Is he able to divide by zero like turtlehurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 I think we need to bring back the 2-layer barotropic models from the 50s. i agree we should have a relics model thread than maybe people can see how far we've come using 4DVAR (ecmwf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Is he able to divide by zero like turtlehurricane? no one can divide by zero like dtk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 Yes. AMDL96 Anal Mos Data Log 96 That man is seriously talented. I wonder what he charges for this data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 3, 2011 Share Posted March 3, 2011 i agree we should have a relics model thread than maybe people can see how far we've come using 4DVAR (ecmwf) And CMC and UK too (regarding the use of 4DVAR). I agree though--data assimilation and statistical analysis of said data is so amazingly complex it is just a nod to human ingenuity these models do what they can do. Even then they will never get close to reality--and good forecasters will always be needed. Still though--amazing tools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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