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Monday - Tuesday Event


jayyy

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0z NAM.. could it ahve started a trend? Low takes a track almost identical to todays.. less cold air to work with BUT as the clipper comes through Saturday, intensifies and goes NE, it could pave the path for a storm farther SE over the next few days on the models.. 0z nam Bufkit for KBUF, 7 inches on the backend!

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question for anyone, preferably a Meteorologist..

Although models have this event going well west, could it eventually trend S+E? I ask this because, although our saturday clipper will move either north of, or directly over us and exit into the Canadian Maritimes and not be much of a snowmaker, won't it carve a path farther SE for the event two days after.. Often times when you see a clipper or weak low pressure system come through the area a few days prior, models dont catch onto the right track until the storm has passed and become a "player" North and east of the area.. IF our clipper does intensify and provide ANY type of blocking or confluence up north, it COULD nudge our storm southward.. Any ideas? There has been a pretty consistent trend ever so slightly south and east the past few runs, with the NAM showing a moderate snow event after a change over... Am I just pulling this out of my buttt to hold onto any hope I have? or does this weekends clipper have any effect on how the storm early next week pans out?

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yes sir, quite warm.. but 6z NAM is usually too warm and wet. I really only pay attention to the 12z and 0zcruns, especially when were over 48-54 hours out..

BUFKIT prints 3.8 in of snow on the back end of tuesdays event, instead of 7.2 inches.. pretty much the same exact run as 0z... only

difference being that the 00z run changes WNY over to snow with another 4/10ths of an inch of liquid left to fall... the 6z NAM cuts

the total precip amounts down... instead of 4/10ths of an inch of qpf after the rain, only about .15-.20" liquid snow equivalent is left.

in my experience with storms, the NAM is pretty much garbage outside 2 days.. i MAY stretch it to 54 hours depending on the setup.

I take most models runs with a grain of salt... although if i had to choose, I would put more stock into 0z which uses brand new data

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6z GFS follows in the footsteps of the NAM.. the EXACT same look at 66 hours... 2 lows. one in Downeast maine, and the other over NYC. What we need is some separation with the two waves of low pressure.. if we can get some space between them, the first low can bring in colder air, as well as bring the second, more potent storm system, south of us.

Differences nam vs. gfs

NAM a bit faster, but GFS warmer...only brings 0.3 inches of snow behind the rain

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Gfs yesterday was showing 1.5"+ of precip, today its more around .5-.7..So it atleast thats some good news..The 2nd storm on the gfs actually goes to far SE for any precip to fall in the area..

The bulk of that precip is frozen across the Nrn sections of St Lawrence / Franklin / Essex counties. Based on the thermal lines, I would say that area initially starts as SN / IP mix changing to FzRa... ending as a period of SN.

Regardless of Ptype, significant winter wx event looking more likely up there.

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its going to be real touch and go in the ottawa valley and here.

i dont like that all of tonights modeling is coming in slightly more amped with the low, and thus a push of warmer air....

since we are going to be riding the line by 20 or 30 miles, it will be impossible to nail this down until maybe even nowcasting time, certainly not by until later tomorrow afternoon at the earlies..

given the trends this year, i wouldnt be surprised if the heavy snow setsup JUST north of ottawa... :lol:......it will be a very close call.

right now i favor predomaintely FRZRA throughout ottawa-montreal corridor.

if the low keeps coming in more amped, we risk a changeover to rain. hopefully we see a reversal by the 12z models tomorrow and back to more snow like we saw on the 18z....the energy is still way over the intermountain region.

but it definitely could be another heartbreaker.....hopefully we get one to finally break right by 20 miles.

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its going to be real touch and go in the ottawa valley and here.

i dont like that all of tonights modeling is coming in slightly more amped with the low, and thus a push of warmer air....

since we are going to be riding the line by 20 or 30 miles, it will be impossible to nail this down until maybe even nowcasting time, certainly not by until later tomorrow afternoon at the earlies..

given the trends this year, i wouldnt be surprised if the heavy snow setsup JUST north of ottawa... :lol:......it will be a very close call.

right now i favor predomaintely FRZRA throughout ottawa-montreal corridor.

if the low keeps coming in more amped, we risk a changeover to rain. hopefully we see a reversal by the 12z models tomorrow and back to more snow like we saw on the 18z....the energy is still way over the intermountain region.

but it definitely could be another heartbreaker.....hopefully we get one to finally break right by 20 miles.

OL, if we get ANYTHING, I'll be happy. I'll also be happy if the temperature is held at or below the freezing mark, given the original forecast was for 13C.

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great to see all the models since the 00z cycles tick colder. the 12z RGEM still on the warmer side, but defintely colder.

i think its safe to say at this point that a winter storm is on the way for Eastern ontario and SW quebec. plain rain is essentially out of the question for the cities, barring a serious last minute waffle.

i think env canada should have a WSwatch up for the ottawa valley for ice and snow.

models still vary on amounts of each type, but the potential does exist for >6 inches/ 15cm of snow if its all snow.

hard to believe that a torch cutter trended as such.........but only this year could it with the wicked SE trend. for once, it will pay off. :o

more later as thermal profiles are looked at more closely.

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Eek... 12z ECM produces a heavy icing (Mostly FzRa) in excess of .50" across the northeast portion of ALY cwa (N Washington-NE Warren NY and S VT zones) and southern portion of BTV cwa (Essex NY and C VT zones) Tonight into 1st half of Monday.

Further south / west, looks like a short-lived WWA type event for Sleet / FzRa.

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LOL euro has shifted S :lmao:

:arrowhead:

would be all snow in the cities but signficiant cutback on qpf (esp for ottawa :lmao: ), probably heaviest snow would be along and near the border.

how can this be?

well it seems the models are having a hard time with the fact that the storm is still forming and before you know it will be on top of us as a wave of low pressure. if you look at national radar, there is no storm to speak of right now, just some blobs of convection getting going early in the game.

i think there will be a narrow band (20-25miles) of 6-10 inches (15-25cm) of snow but whether that it is north of the cities, across ottawa and montreal, or S of them, or even in NNY/NVT....is impossible to tell right now given the SIGNIFICANT model differencees (at <18hrs lead time) and the fact the storm is forming very late in the game and nothing to track on radar at this time in the cold sector.

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Eek... 12z ECM produces a heavy icing (Mostly FzRa) in excess of .50" across the northeast portion of ALY cwa (N Washington-NE Warren NY and S VT zones) and southern portion of BTV cwa (Essex NY and C VT zones) Tonight into 1st half of Monday.

Further south / west, looks like a short-lived WWA type event for Sleet / FzRa.

12z NAM and GFS also produce moderate icing in excess of .25", with the GFS closer to the ECM with amounts nearing or exceeding .50" across portions of the Dacks / Upper HV / C-S VT. Looking at the soundings on the NAM / GFS, profiles look good for FzRa in this area where it remains below 32°F at the surface, although there could be a brief period of SN / PL at the onset.

Based on 12z runs, there is potential for .50" ice... but it may be a little too marginal for a Watch / Warning unless the models continue to trend colder and / or wetter like the ECM.

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Looks like the 18Z NAM went south. Actually only gets me to 3C now, but still 95% is FZRA and/or RN. Probably means more snow and less threat of FZRA for you people up north.

That low may try to head for northern NY, but it will be what I call a "ghost low" by that time....as the warm sector is pinched off and ultimately we see the NAM with a new low on the Maine Coast.

I like the way these things tend to trend south and it gives some hope for the big one in a week ....despite some of the distasteful 12Z runs. Gonna be arctic air over almost all of Canada at that point and hope it bleeds across into Quebec and Upstate NY.

EC issed a WSW for Ottawa calling for up to 6 inches.....

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there really are a couple of ways to go with tomorrow's forecast.....agressive or conservative.

there are reasons to go conservative.....possilibity of warmer air/mixed pcpn, developing wave

there are some reason to go agressive: convective type precip, favorable track of wave

low confidence forecast at this time because the storm is late blooming and the models have very important and significant differences at basically zero lead time. having said that, i think the WSW are appropriate at this time because the morning commute should be messy.

heaviest precip tomorrow AM from arond the commute until noon through early afternoon west to east. precip could be very heavy due to convective type.

using agressive techniques, i'd say 4-8 inches / 10-20cm with localized to 10 inches/25cm in spots in the ottawa-montreal corridor, with highest amounts favored east of ottawa and towards northern sections of montreal. convective type precip favors localized amounts.

using consevative approach, id call for 2-5 inches / 5-13cm in the same corridor with accumaltions to 8 inches in the ski areas north of montreal and north of ottawa , with some ice mixed in the cities.

when will we know? probably around 2-3am when precip starts entering our region and we see more of the developed system behind it, and see ptype setup, and temp profile around ontario. i wont be up at that time ,but will check in the AM.

potential for significant icing just S of ottawa and towards east of MSS and along the international border S of montreal. if more warm air, significant icing possible in the cities.....and the storm will become more of an ice event and less snow. rain is not likely in the cities.

through brockville back down towards kingston and into NNY towns like ogdesnburg, canton, gouverneuer, mixed precip to rain is expected.

based on early modeling and early radar return in the midwest, it looks to me that precip will be towards the heavier end but with warmer thermal profiles. of course heavier precip can offset warmth in the column, so again....very tricky balance.

when all is said and done, could be a very good storm across the ottawa- montreal corridor, certainly could be very nasty if ice becomes an issue.

keep your fingers crossed.

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GFS had the best handle on precip already fallen on the northern side, compared to NAM and RGEM.

this fits in with heavier and warmer that was mentioned for up here.

GFS just bombs the area tomorrow morning with ridiculous precip rates.

gonna be real interesting to see what falls from the sky tomorrow.

Whatever happens OL, what an incredible change in forecast from what EC was calling for only three days ago - rain with a high of 13C

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