Tornado Girl Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 And more LES too but not this winter. ;-) :-) Yes....it killed my winter forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 Here was the 12z Canadian Ensemble Mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 KALB IT IS IN THIS REGION THAT CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THAT HEAVY SNOW MAY OCCUR I find the use of MAY OCCUR humorous to me- this screams confidence to me! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Yes....it killed my winter forecast No it was an awesome forecast for SYR to have more LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 6 inches at my place? I'm not biting. Fool me once, you damn SWFE, shame on me... fool me twice?...... KALB pretty optimistic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 23, 2011 Author Share Posted February 23, 2011 The 18z GEFS is pretty much identical to the 12z ECM in terms of strength / placement of the LP by 1PM Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 No it was an awesome forecast for SYR to have more LES. Funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I think BUF is too high on snow amounts....I would think closer to the lower end maybe 5-6...at least up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Funny Thank you, thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 No dryslot here... Not too sure about sleet either. Profiles look quite isothermal (I haven't checked 18z data/ones yet). Ptype will be intensity driven. Also Snow to H20 ratios probably 10 to 1 even 8:1 perhaps. Agree Andy... I only have a thin sliver of sleet in my forecast. And mostly rain too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 18z gfs and nam shifted significantly toward the euro solution... my confidence is growing. I'll post more detailed potential accums later tonight. I would like to see another round of the nam and gfs first. I did in the meantime continue with T-3" on the front end of this thing and 1-3" on the backside... noting that probably the hills see the higher accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 The 18z GEFS is pretty much identical to the 12z ECM in terms of strength / placement of the LP by 1PM Friday... Low pressure over Monticello not generally good for a lasting snow event in ENY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Low pressure over Monticello not generally good for a lasting snow event in ENY Here's the skew T's for Speculator, Gloversville & Glens Falls from the 18 z NAM for Friday AM 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z NAM has initialized... lets do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z NAM has initialized... lets do this! lets push this thing south. i'd love a solution similar to the 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 ouch.. 21z SREF mean came even further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 ouch.. 21z SREF mean came even further north. Next stop... I-90. Reminds me of 'Cuse at Pittsburgh and the infamous 19-0 start to the game... Gotta find a way to stop the bleeding here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Question for the experts here. I'm a LongIslander now in Liberty NY 10 miles northwest of Monticello. Any chance of a few inches here from tomm into Friday? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z NAM is a weaker / south thus far thru H27. 18z / H33 - 1000mb over S IL 0z / H27 - 1004mb over MO Bootheel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Next stop... I-90. Reminds me of 'Cuse at Pittsburgh and the infamous 19-0 start to the game... Gotta find a way to stop the bleeding here... well, through hour 30 the 00z nam is well south of 18z so thats a start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 H36 has 996mb over far southwest PA compared to East Central OH on 18z. Moderate snows over W NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 H39... Broad 996mb over C PA. Heavy Rain from ELM-Oneonta-ALB. Moderate-to-heavy snow north/west of that line up to ART / Dacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 So far in comparing the 0z nam to the euro... they appear to be pretty close in their solutions... I would go as far as to say they are just about identical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Im about 8 miles northwest of the 0c line lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 0z NAM = W NY / NC NY / Upper HV curb-stomp. 8+ of concrete... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Question for the experts here. I'm a LongIslander now in Liberty NY 10 miles northwest of Monticello. Any chance of a few inches here from tomm into Friday? Thanks! No.....You might get a little bit of mixing later Thur night.....But it will be mostly a rain event for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Question for the experts here. I'm a LongIslander now in Liberty NY 10 miles northwest of Monticello. Any chance of a few inches here from tomm into Friday? Thanks! I have you pegged for up to an inch Thurs. evening if that... then mostly rain until the changeover Friday when you may pick up an inch maybe 2 if you're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 In the spirit of tax season let's break down SYR's total from NAM, which should be quite similar (with a few variances) up and down the thruway: At first glance SYR does great....1.00+ qpf....pretty much all snow on the profiles.....now for the deductions: -35% of total...(standard NAM deduction) -10% for a bit of mixing because there will inevitabily be SOME warm layer making it up this way and of course sun angle this time of year. -20% for potential down sloping/shadowing. - 20% for unexpected dry slot after the down sloping -10% because SYR can't have a synoptic snowfall above 3" more than once in a season.... so that leaves about 5% of the total qpf which equates to around .05...and at a sloppy 8:1 ratio, look for SYR and similar Thruway locales to dig out from a solid .4-.8" of slop. Enjoy everyone! Should be fun! j/k........mostly.......I think............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 In the spirit of tax season let's break down SYR's total from NAM, which should be quite similar (with a few variances) up and down the thruway: At first glance SYR does great....1.00+ qpf....pretty much all snow on the profiles.....now for the deductions: -35% of total...(standard NAM deduction) -10% for a bit of mixing because there will inevitabily be SOME warm layer making it up this way and of course sun angle this time of year. -20% for potential down sloping/shadowing. - 20% for unexpected dry slot after the down sloping -10% because SYR can't have a synoptic snowfall above 3" more than once in a season.... so that leaves about 5% of the total qpf which equates to around .05...and at a sloppy 8:1 ratio, look for SYR and similar Thruway locales to dig out from a solid .4-.8" of slop. Enjoy everyone! Should be fun! j/k........mostly.......I think............... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 24, 2011 Author Share Posted February 24, 2011 In the spirit of tax season let's break down SYR's total from NAM, which should be quite similar (with a few variances) up and down the thruway: At first glance SYR does great....1.00+ qpf....pretty much all snow on the profiles.....now for the deductions: -35% of total...(standard NAM deduction) -10% for a bit of mixing because there will inevitabily be SOME warm layer making it up this way and of course sun angle this time of year. -20% for potential down sloping/shadowing. - 20% for unexpected dry slot after the down sloping -10% because SYR can't have a synoptic snowfall above 3" more than once in a season.... so that leaves about 5% of the total qpf which equates to around .05...and at a sloppy 8:1 ratio, look for SYR and similar Thruway locales to dig out from a solid .4-.8" of slop. Enjoy everyone! Should be fun! j/k........mostly.......I think............... Lol, nice. Think I would change the word 'slop' to 'concrete' though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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