CNYWxGuy Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Even with 1 event about to get started, there is another well-advertised storm on the horizon for Thursday-Friday timeframe. Perhaps those missing out on the heavier snows Tonight / Monday will cash in with this next one even though it does appear to be a fast-mover and possibly warmer... 18z GFS... 12z ECM... 12z CMC... 18z DGEX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 i'm on board for this one. hopefully the energy plays ball. hopefully it doesnt play too much ball though, leading to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 0z GFS looks like a carbon of its 18z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The GFS is colder and suppresses the end of the week low south much more than the Euro.... The ECMWF just bring it to far north for my likening. I think this storm will be very similar to the current storm... I hope it doesn't run as far south as this one did....I would like to see 6"-8" Thursday and Friday; but I think that might be a pipedream at least looking at things right now. But we will see.....I will be thinking snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i'm on board for this one. hopefully the energy plays ball. hopefully it doesnt play too much ball though, leading to rain. Yes, both EC and TWN are calling for temps above freezing for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The GFS is colder and suppresses the end of the week low south much more than the Euro.... The ECMWF just bring it to far north for my likening. I think this storm will be very similar to the current storm... I hope it doesn't run as far south as this one did....I would like to see 6"-8" Thursday and Friday; but I think that might be a pipedream at least looking at things right now. But we will see.....I will be thinking snow this past storm was running into a PV of death. im worried about rain, but of course slight timing differences will send it out S and E as a flat wave. but if the energy is able to amplify, there is nothing to stop it from coming N and W other than a progessive, active jet. but feature wise, there is nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 this past storm was running into a PV of death. im worried about rain, but of course slight timing differences will send it out S and E as a flat wave. but if the energy is able to amplify, there is nothing to stop it from coming N and W other than a progessive, active jet. but feature wise, there is nothing. The storm is going to ride along a stalled front. So the keys are where the front stops along with how fast the primary hands off to the secondary as to who sees what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The storm is going to ride along a stalled front. So the keys are where the front stops along with how fast the primary hands off to the secondary as to who sees what. yeah good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Well if I were a betting man.... I'd go with a mess here and good event from TG to you..... Contravailing signal ...the ECM this season just hasn't been the old Dr. No all the time. I don't think you need to worry about rain up there with this event. It may ride inland over Upstate NY due to the southeast ridge etc....but I can't see it being a typical deep interior cutter. I don't think it will track north of Albany or much south of NYC...that's my window of expectation. yeah good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 well its the euro/NAM/ukie further N and W vs GFS/GEM further S and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 12z gefs and 12z ecm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Im getting tired of this cold, super dry air. Either we get snow in the next 10 days or bring on spring. Mind you a march 1993 type of storm wouldn't be so bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Im getting tired of this cold, super dry air. Either we get snow in the next 10 days or bring on spring. Mind you a march 1993 type of storm wouldn't be so bad! same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdoug Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I went with a warmer soln for this one... following the euro. One thing to watch for is the timing of the upper system coming into/out of the southwest US... models have a tendency to eject them too quickly... If we see a slower ejection then we could get into a colder/more suppressed soln closer to the gfs. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 0z NAM looks like the ECM... meanwhile the 0z GFS stays S / E... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 0z Canadian remains S / E with the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 Could be a potential red-flag to the GFS being too far S / E as it appears the Ens Mean is atleast a little bit N / W of the operational... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 0z ECM still west a good bit with a 992mb thru W PA / 988mb right thru BGM... Looks like mainly rain south of N NY with a changeover to snow in W NY / NC NY. The SLV down to about ART and points north / west look to be all snow and 6in+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 I went with a warmer soln for this one... following the euro. One thing to watch for is the timing of the upper system coming into/out of the southwest US... models have a tendency to eject them too quickly... If we see a slower ejection then we could get into a colder/more suppressed soln closer to the gfs. Stay tuned. EC tends to have issues with systems coming out of the SW in that it tends to NOT eject them out fast enough. EC ensemble mean is COLDER in the 72-96 hour period with 850 temps below 0C across upstate NY. LOW track looks to be a bit south too not quite like the GFS but close to it. UK and ECEN are actually similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 with the NAM moving towards the GFS, it seems the euro and its ensembles which were so steadfast on brigning a storm to the North Country for days, are likely to to be on thin ice?????........ ..................find out at 1pm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Well, the HPC was gung-ho for the euro yesterday for sure. It'll be interesting to see what the HPC says if the euro moves towards the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z GFS still s / e with little QPF thrown back into the cold sector for snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Can you say supression? It'll be interesting to see what the euro has to say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z Canadian looks like a hybrid solution between the 0z ECM and 12z GFS / NAM.. Verbatim, it looks like a low-end warning snow event for the southern half of Upstate, although critical thicknesses are a little iffy for all-snow in the Ern S Tier and along / east of I-88... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 Sounds like the ecm goes from kpit to kalb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 12z ECM is a QPF bomb, but still west... althought perhaps a tick s / e of 0z run. H72- 992mb over Pittsburgh H78- 988mb over Hunter Mtn H84- 984mb over extreme southeastern ME Trying to decipher how much is mix / rain vs snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 22, 2011 Author Share Posted February 22, 2011 I'll draw up a QPF map and perhaps 2 of intervals, just a minute.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 22, 2011 Share Posted February 22, 2011 euro defintely slower to amplify the wave and thus has ticked S and E. puts us on the edge of any real signficiant qpf up here after days and days of days of being in the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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