RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Honestly, unless something is completely amiss, kpit is totally out to lunch. Euro, gfs, nam, rgem, and the high red models all give us at least 4 inches. I'm going with 4-7 locally, and 6-8 in the ridges. I'm not sure what is going on either. Right now we only have a hazardous weather outlook which mentions the possibility of 1-3 inches. From all the info Iv gathered, 00z NAM, GFS, Euro, 6z NAM, GFS we look to get anywhere between .4 - .6 which would be all frozen or mostly frozen. Would say 3-6 sounds reasonable. Maybe NWS is waiting til the 12z models to make sure there is not another shift south which would take us out of the heavier snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Honestly, unless something is completely amiss, kpit is totally out to lunch. Euro, gfs, nam, rgem, and the high red models all give us at least 4 inches. I'm going with 4-7 locally, and 6-8 in the ridges. You seem to be the outlier. I watched 4 and 11 this morning and they're in the same range as PBZ, and AccuWx has their little "X.X inches of snow on the way" headline beneath the graphics on the local forecast page. Yesterday, they were at 1,(somthing), sometime last night, they bumped it up to 3.3", I think it was, and now this morning it's back to an even 2". Although HPC seems to put us in the area of 40% probability of 4"+, but gives us zero probabilty of 8+. I guess we'll know tomorrow who got it right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I see we are forecast for a high of 42 today. I have been holding at 34 since late last night and it looks like most of Ohio is slowly falling except for near Cincy and south. Is there a warm front on the way this afternoon that will boost temperatures before they fall tonight or will we have a earlier drop in temp and get the changeover earlier than expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 yea-all the local mets are seriously saying not much at all...1-2 or something....I'm not buying into the 1-2 theory yet as ive spoken to a few good sources who think more than that....not that this is the same at all...but remember how everyone was saying 3-5, 4-8 before last year's 20" wallop???..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 yea-all the local mets are seriously saying not much at all...1-2 or something....I'm not buying into the 1-2 theory yet as ive spoken to a few good sources who think more than that....not that this is the same at all...but remember how everyone was saying 3-5, 4-8 before last year's 20" wallop???..... Not as much moisture as last years storm and also much faster moving. I do however see totals going up to 3-5 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 FWIW locals are saying 2" to 4" NAM looks like it's holding at 12Z, and will probably print out 6" or 7" again...It's getting awfully close to gametime not to start taking it seriously......but.... I think it's a high bust potential scenario, and thus the conservative forecasts. We have a narrow window to get the cold air in here, and have the heaviest precipitation fall. I hate to keep beating the "this looks too progressive" drum, but we are going to have to thread the needle. I'm going 3" to 5".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 FWIW locals are saying 2" to 4" NAM looks like it's holding at 12Z, and will probably print out 6" or 7" again...It's getting awfully close to gametime not to start taking it seriously......but.... I think it's a high bust potential scenario, and thus the conservative forecasts. We have a narrow window to get the cold air in here, and have the heaviest precipitation fall. I hate to keep beating the "this looks too progressive" drum, but we are going to have to thread the needle. I'm going 3" to 5".... 3-5 certainly better than the 1-2 call!!...I'll take 4 and be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I am getting some wet snow and sleet mixing in with the light rain. My temp has been 34.3 all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I am getting some wet snow and sleet mixing in with the light rain. My temp has been 34.3 all morning. Same here, I noticed some wet flakes and sleet hitting the windshield when I got home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 You seem to be the outlier. I watched 4 and 11 this morning and they're in the same range as PBZ, and AccuWx has their little "X.X inches of snow on the way" headline beneath the graphics on the local forecast page. Yesterday, they were at 1,(somthing), sometime last night, they bumped it up to 3.3", I think it was, and now this morning it's back to an even 2". Although HPC seems to put us in the area of 40% probability of 4"+, but gives us zero probabilty of 8+. I guess we'll know tomorrow who got it right.... I guess my point was more along the lines of how does the NWS not have an advisory up at this point? I mean, every model is printing out at least 4 inches...12z NAM just printed out close to .5 inches, and with temps likely crashing, thats probably 6 inches. I'm not sure how KPIT can't have at least an advisory up? At the very least, we are going to see a good 6 hour burst of heavier snow. I really see 4-6 or 7 at the top end, and think an advisory is necessary at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Just looking at the graphics it looks like most of SWPA on the GFS will be between .5 and .75 qpf. Unless NWS thinks temps will be an issue I would be shocked to not see advisories go up shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I see we are forecast for a high of 42 today. I have been holding at 34 since late last night and it looks like most of Ohio is slowly falling except for near Cincy and south. Is there a warm front on the way this afternoon that will boost temperatures before they fall tonight or will we have a earlier drop in temp and get the changeover earlier than expected? Temperatures look to be cooling. 32 degree line is pretty close by and with winds coming in from the N I don't see us making 42 as the boundary is to our south and is not going to make it any further north than M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Just looking at the graphics it looks like most of SWPA on the GFS will be between .5 and .75 qpf. Unless NWS thinks temps will be an issue I would be shocked to not see advisories go up shortly. That could be the key.....does this stuff in the 1PM to 7 PM window fall as snow....and more importantly.... accumulating snow. Otherwise I say it's a 4"-ish type storm with most falling 7 PM to midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Nice map, large temp gradient along I-79. OT: It's golfing weather in Charleston and Huntington WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 That could be the key.....does this stuff in the 1PM to 7 PM window fall as snow....and more importantly.... accumulating snow. Otherwise I say it's a 4"-ish type storm with most falling 7 PM to midnight. I just went up a degree to 35.4. I think we will get a lot of rain before we switch over tonight. It looks like the cold air moving south is retreating and heading back north. I still think 2-4 or 3-5 will be a good call but most coming later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 21, 2011 Author Share Posted February 21, 2011 Updated NWS... FPUS51 KPBZ 211550 ZFPPBZ ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1050 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011 PAZ021-212145- ALLEGHENY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA 1050 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011 .TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 18. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING... THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1208 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-PAZ007-008-013>016-020>022-029-031-073- 075-WVZ001>004-220115- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0014.110221T2300Z-110222T1500Z/ TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH- MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-MERCER-VENANGO-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION- JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-WASHINGTON-GREENE- WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER... UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA... EAST PALESTINE...WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ... HOPEDALE...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE... MARTINS FERRY...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...BELLAIRE...BARNESVILLE... SHADYSIDE...BRIDGEPORT...SHARON...HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY... GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK... NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...CLARION... PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY... ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER... PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY...LEECHBURG... FREEPORT...APOLLO...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...DONORA... CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...WAYNESBURG... FAIRDALE...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE... MONESSEN...UNIONTOWN...CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...TORONTO... WEIRTON...WHEELING...MOUNDSVILLE 1208 PM EST MON FEB 21 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES. * TIMING...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. SNOW COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE MILE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I dont get how dennis bowman says 1-2, MAYBE 3....when the NWS has 3-5...what's he seeing?...it's been cooler here today than expected..at 38 here in Bethel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I dont get how dennis bowman says 1-2, MAYBE 3....when the NWS has 3-5...what's he seeing?...it's been cooler here today than expected..at 38 here in Bethel I think some of his info is old, because I also heard him on the radio this morning say 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I think some of his info is old, because I also heard him on the radio this morning say 1-2". Has to be old. Dennis Bowman tends to give higher amounts than the rest of the local mets. Last year's monster storm, he said 8-12 while everyone else was still saying 3-6 the morning of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 My temp has gone down a degree to 34.3. Looking at the Intellicast radar the rain/snow line is dropping thru Alleg. Co. I think when the precip starts in an hour or so we will already be getting a mix in most places. http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USPA1290&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Has to be old. Dennis Bowman tends to give higher amounts than the rest of the local mets. Last year's monster storm, he said 8-12 while everyone else was still saying 3-6 the morning of that storm. Yeah, I think alot of times those forecasts have to be made way in advance for the radio, and sometimes even for TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Updated NWS... FPUS51 KPBZ 211550 ZFPPBZ ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1050 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011 PAZ021-212145- ALLEGHENY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA 1050 AM EST MON FEB 21 2011 .TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 18. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING... THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. . My browser must be messed up, because I can't get that new forecast to show up. It's still stuck on the old forecast from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 My browser must be messed up, because I can't get that new forecast to show up. It's still stuck on the old forecast from last night. I don't think it's your browser. It must be the site, because it's doing the same thing to me. It shows the winter weather advisory at the top, but the forecast below it still shows 1-3 for tonight. Click on the mobile weather information link and get to the forecast that way. It shows the forecast that Burghblizz posted, actually updated at 12:23PM. Here's the link to the page actually..... http://mobile.weathe...warnzone=PAZ021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I am out driving in the north hills and it is sleeting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 An all too familiar site seeing the mix line going through Allegheny County right now. Temps are dropping though and the line is sinking south. I've gone down almost two degrees since noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 An all too familiar site seeing the mix line going through Allegheny County right now. Temps are dropping though and the line is sinking south. I've gone down almost two degrees since noon. Good sign. If that continues I doubt temps will be much of an issue especially for the grassy surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I don't think it's your browser. It must be the site, because it's doing the same thing to me. It shows the winter weather advisory at the top, but the forecast below it still shows 1-3 for tonight. Click on the mobile weather information link and get to the forecast that way. It shows the forecast that Burghblizz posted, actually updated at 12:23PM. Here's the link to the page actually..... http://mobile.weathe...warnzone=PAZ021 Thanks, I'll have to remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Lol, usually that pinging is a dreaded sound, this time it's not so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Was caught in this storm near Columbus yesterday, we had 1" of ice on I-70 and we counted 14 accidents and saw two happen. One was very disturbing near Zanesville we witnessed, an SUV had spun around in the passing lane and a tractor trailer looked as if it ran over top of it as it could'nt stop. The ambulance approached the scene with lights off and there was massive amounts of blood all over the crash scene and on the windshield indicating the occupant(s) were all dead. So be careful out there on highways with ice and sleet, drive slow, turn on your hazards and don't be in a rush. I bet you the people yesterday had no idea Sunday February 20th was going to be his\her last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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