north pgh Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah...actually in the last two days it's moved from off the coast and a good hit for eastern pa to a hit 500 miles west...just purely amazing. Lt rain and 34 degrees here. Won't see any frozen til later this evening and then it will be way less than an inch. On to the next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah...actually in the last two days it's moved from off the coast and a good hit for eastern pa to a hit 500 miles west...just purely amazing. I think there is actually just two different waves. The one scooting east is still there. I think this one is just a little stronger than originally modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 I guess back in January, we didn't specify how much of a NW shift we wanted. Too late late now I guess. Just got back from New Castle, and it was rain all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Without that -AO and -NAO everything is way north. I feel like we'd need some help next week to keep any of those threats suppressed. The pattern right now is just crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 From JB: What about my "super storm" threat on the east coast. The models really dont show it now, but the parameters have not changed. The key is the energy in the southwest coming out in time for the northern branch to dig into. However this is more tricky than some of the other storms I have held my ground on coming further west, for the pattern which has promoted corrections west is not as clear and here is why. The trough that is coming later this upcoming week is PROGRESSING the mean long wave out of the east. The past two weeks, the mean trough has been backing up, and that is why storms have been coming further west. But this time the trough is not only progressing back into the east, but out of the east into the north atlantic, which is why the back of winter is broken next week with the major, and may I add, well touted warm up! A new trough is developing in the means in the west with a strong negative PNA for next week. The effects of that may break enough of the ridge down fast enough to force the energy needed to get out into the southern plains for the super storm type phasing to lean back... which would gum up the works. While I am not changing, and believe it will come out fast enough ( after all, its not like there havent been big storms moving up further west than the models) this is much trickier folks. But if its tricky for me, its tricky for the models, which have had a tendency of leaning energy back. Then again the current package did just that.. the storm a few days ago had the energy from the storm now stay way back, right? So its tricky , but I still like the major phasing idea Wednesday and Thursday with the monster traveling from New Orleans to Norfolk to Nantucket. After all if we look at the trend of storms, and the original snow axis and paths I have had, while further west than the models 4 days out, the snow has wound up further west than me. Even in Texas, the snow started further west with Houston to McAllen seeing only some light freezing rain ( a problem anyway there, but not the drama I had thought would occur. However once northwest of that, it fulfilled its destiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow. Looking at the radar it doesn't even look like we're going to get that little bit of snow at the tail end of this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Wow. Looking at the radar it doesn't even look like we're going to get that little bit of snow at the tail end of this one.... Nope, this one was a complete fail for snow / winter weather lovers. Looks like we have about 1 week to get something before winter take a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 It's funny you mentioned jb...I was listening to Quinn and rose and they talked about jb. They were talking about global warming and that mets like jb don't have political leanings in forecasts. Quinn went onto say jb is most always right. First off, I pooped myself because jb does forecast with bias to hype everything. He also is always wrong. To cap it off, his winter forecast was warm in the east, and wrong. It's reasons like that the people who listen to these guys are so uninformed...they spout garbage over and over and people fall for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Nope, this one was a complete fail for snow / winter weather lovers. Looks like we have about 1 week to get something before winter take a break. It's my fault. I saw that the distributor was going to run out of salt, so I loaded up. Now I'm gonna be stuck with it. Sorry, guys... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 As long as the 850's are ok, Mon/Tue could produce something. However this past week has lowered confidence in anything going foward. But let's forget about that crap for awhile, the superbowl festivities are about to get crackin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I just heard the wind blowing and looked out and there is a whiteout. It looks like a very narrow band, maybe 5 minutes or so but everything is covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 I just heard the wind blowing and looked out and there is a whiteout. It looks like a very narrow band, maybe 5 minutes or so but everything is covered. It went through here earlier too. Got another one of our quick coatings to add to the deceiving winter total! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow...nam totally disintegrates our early week threat...I don't usually say this, but bring on spring...this winter has flat out sucked..I'm sick of an inch at a time as it's just a pain in the ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Wow...nam totally disintegrates our early week threat...I don't usually say this, but bring on spring...this winter has flat out sucked..I'm sick of an inch at a time as it's just a pain in the ass. i agree. Since we weren't getting snow today I decided to take a nice 3 mile run around the neighborhood. I got half way into my run and it started pouring rain. I was soaked and it was 35 degrees. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Happy Feb 5th everyone......last year at this moment it was RIPPIN'. I think we probably had about 10" on the ground on our way to >21" I haven't given up on the mid/late week threat. But I am not going to look at it until Monday (so I say) Let's have a great one tomorrow!!! Got my blood pressure med and beers ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 HERE WE GO STEELERS, HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Nam total precip through 48 hours, maybe we can get another over performing event here? Some of this might be mixed, I have no idea, I haven't been following this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Nam total precip through 48 hours, maybe we can get another over performing event here? Some of this might be mixed, I have no idea, I haven't been following this storm... I feel the same as you. It looks like the majority falls tonight. I think we will have a mix during the day but this evening and tonight we may be in for a 1-3 event and then another 1/2 inch or so tomorrow with colder air. If the GFS comes in wetter tonight we may be looking at a nice surprise snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Per text data, 12z NAM says about .25 of what falls will be snow. The rest is some sort of mix. Looks like the mid week storm is dead. Then we get a bit of a warm-up. Looking at the GFS though, it doesn't look like a huge warm-up, or at least doesn't look to be way above average and cold air looks to be close by so I would not write winter off just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Kinda cool how the mixed precip in the river valleys shows up on radar right now. But overall I agree with all ya'll about the rest of winter. It only takes one storm with the right track to give us the win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I am getting some big wet snowflakes currently mixing in with the rain. Sitting at 37 degrees so nothing will accumulate today. I still think we may see a solid 3 inches this evening. All models are showing the heavier precip tonight and the temperature should be dropping as the low goes by. Western Kentucky has been getting good snows today and the heavier precip should move here later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I am getting some big wet snowflakes currently mixing in with the rain. Sitting at 37 degrees so nothing will accumulate today. I still think we may see a solid 3 inches this evening. All models are showing the heavier precip tonight and the temperature should be dropping as the low goes by. Western Kentucky has been getting good snows today and the heavier precip should move here later. Somebody may be in for a surprise later this evening, check out the heavy/convective precip in TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Somebody may be in for a surprise later this evening, check out the heavy/convective precip in TN NWS Pit doesn't think so. They think 1 inch for Pit and 1-4 in the ridges. They know better than I do but my gut is telling me we do better than 1 inch tonight. The ridges and Johnstown area should do much better though. I guess a lot will depend on how quickly the rain changes to snow tonight. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1208 PM EST MON FEB 7 2011 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TURNING OVER TO ALL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE MID-WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA IS BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. WITH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WITH SNOW MELTING AS IT REACHES THE GROUND. A SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH...WITH MOST ACCUMULATION FALLING IN RAIN...WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS AND MERGES INTO A COASTAL LOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLAND OF WESTERN PA AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH UPSLOPING ENHANCEMENT AND COLDER TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN RIDGES. AT THE MOMENT...WILL HOLD OFF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN RIDGES WITH FORECAST ACCUMS MARGINALLY BELOW CRITERIA. HOWEVER...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN UPSLOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY REQUIRE AN ADVISORY. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING TO KICK IN...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER 20S IN NORTH CENTRAL WV.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 NWS Pit doesn't think so. They think 1 inch for Pit and 1-4 in the ridges. They know better than I do but my gut is telling me we do better than 1 inch tonight. The ridges and Johnstown area should do much better though. I guess a lot will depend on how quickly the rain changes to snow tonight. Certainly the further east and higher up one is will make things better.... but even as far west as Murrysville-Masontown should expect 2 or 3" of wet snow. I think once east of 119 some could see up to 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The temps are starting to drop and radar is showing the rain/snow line moving southeast. Wheeling has gone over to snow. I think we will see a switch-over earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Its snowing in Bethel Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Snowing here too. I still think totals will be upper tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 All snow and coming down hard...think we bust high and get 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 And kpit agrees...wwa up for 2-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Getting some moderate wet snow now. BIG flakes coming down right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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