Rib Posted November 11, 2010 Share Posted November 11, 2010 Pretty nice week we are having except for the north winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 The EC has a decent rain event on the 16th-17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 What I find amazing about this past week so far was how the models had a very difficult time picking up the strength of that Polar disturbance, which lead to the upper low. I think that is going to be a theme for much of the winter, through the Fall model guidance, IMO, has been too weak with these disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 What I find amazing about this past week so far was how the models had a very difficult time picking up the strength of that Polar disturbance, which lead to the upper low. I think that is going to be a theme for much of the winter, through the Fall model guidance, IMO, has been too weak with these disturbances. I'm sure I'm biased, but I'd argue it was the poor handling of Tomas that contributed to model errors as much as anything else. With Tomas and its remnants constantly supplying latent heat to the east of the storm, there was extra baroclinicity for the low to work with. The short range forecasts had Tomas heading out into the open Atlantic versus becoming entrained into the low. Also, the seven dayish forecasts, which did show the entrainment of Tomas, had the low bombing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 I'm sure I'm biased, but I'd argue it was the poor handling of Tomas that contributed to model errors as much as anything else. With Tomas and its remnants constantly supplying latent heat to the east of the storm, there was extra baroclinicity for the low to work with. The short range forecasts had Tomas heading out into the open Atlantic versus becoming entrained into the low. Also, the seven dayish forecasts, which did show the entrainment of Tomas, had the low bombing out. No doubt that the handling of Tomas was part of the forecasting problem. I completely agree. However, in various model runs from the GFS to ECMWF and in between, the 500 MB vort diving into the Great Lakes and eventually towards the Mid Atlantic was far weaker on guidance than what actually transpired. This was before there was any direction interaction with the remnants of Tomas or the enhancer baroclinicity. So I guess you can say the whole situation was handled poorly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 This was before there was any direction interaction with the remnants of Tomas or the enhancer baroclinicity. I'll be quiet after this because I honestly wasn't watching the situation that closely due to travel and this is more of a general statement, but tropical systems and remnants can be 1500 mi away and still affect baroclinic systems. You don't need direct interaction to cause the baroclinic lows to deepen through warm advection processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 I'll be quiet after this because I honestly wasn't watching the situation that closely due to travel and this is more of a general statement, but tropical systems and remnants can be 1500 mi away and still affect baroclinic systems. You don't need direct interaction to cause the baroclinic lows to deepen through warm advection processes. I understand that and I'm not disputing that. Just that wasn't the only factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Blocking patterns FTW in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 A low of 25 at MJX this morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 it's a nightmare dressing for class this week It's freezing in the morning but after i'm done class it's up into the low 60s and i'm on fire. May go play some golf today...$15 bucks walking 18 at the local course here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 A low of 25 at MJX this morning.... WOW! And 41 in Elizabeth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 it's a nightmare dressing for class this week It's freezing in the morning but after i'm done class it's up into the low 60s and i'm on fire. May go play some golf today...$15 bucks walking 18 at the local course here. I know...I just brave heading out the door without a jacket in the AM because by 10/11 AM it's warm out. Beautiful day today BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 WOW! And 41 in Elizabeth! That's nothin'... 22 at SMQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryanweather Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 34.7° this morning IMBY. 35 at PNE matches up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colin Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Hi all...missed you all! I'm hoping they let me have a fresh start here, but if not I figured I'd try and get a quick post in. Can't wait for some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Hi all...missed you all! I'm hoping they let me have a fresh start here, but if not I figured I'd try and get a quick post in. Can't wait for some snow! Ugh! Anyway, hopefully I am the first to post a GFS 384 fantasy image at our new home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Ugh! Anyway, hopefully I am the first to post a GFS 384 fantasy image at our new home. Take it to the bank! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Hello. 52.9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryanweather Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Ugh! Anyway, hopefully I am the first to post a GFS 384 fantasy image at our new home. I can only see the 12Z GFS out to h228 h174 on NCEP? It should be in by now. And you posted h384. Must be my computer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 WOW! And 41 in Elizabeth! UHI effect. Just check out the obs so far today: http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMJX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 I can only see the 12Z GFS out to h228 h174 on NCEP? It should be in by now. And you posted h384. Must be my computer... NCEP is stuck at 228 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 NCEP is stuck at 228 for me. hmm, that's strange. now stuck there for me as well. Must have re run due to errors in long range LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Lows this morning, they were all over the place: TTN 37 DYL 31 PNE 35 NXX 34 WRI 33 VAY 31 SMQ 22 LOM 31 NEL 26 UKT 27 PHL 39 MJX 25 BLM 37 PTW 30 MMU 24 ABE 23 EWR 36 CDW 30 12N 26 TEB 33 NYC 45 ACY 32 ILG 32 LGA 45 MQS 43 JFK 40 RDG 27 MIV 30 MPO 27 FWN 22 LNS 27 HPN 33 FRG 40 DOV 33 AVP 26 MGJ 23 SWF 27 MUI 24 ISP 37 GED 35 ESN 32 W29 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Got down to 31 here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 12z euro still bringing the chill around the 19th.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 26 here this morning, coldest morning yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 26 here this morning, coldest morning yet. Seems like Graterford has been a few degrees colder than Spring Mount on clear nights lately. Only got down to 28 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 O/T but did anyone ever save that Wikipedia page we edited during the RetroSnowicane last year? It was in one of the old OBS threads but of course it's gone for good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 12z euro still bringing the chill around the 19th.. it has backed off big time from the 0z run and postpones the true cold air. The first one is transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Amazing wx in the poconos today! This mornings frost gave way to temps touching the 60 degree mark. Played golf and did not need more than a sweater vest. I am ready for the transition to colder wx and snow. Bring it on....ski team begins in a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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