WeatherNC Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Off topic..What is this "warn status" junk showing up below my profile pic? Can it be removed? That is your warn bar, as long as it is empty you are in good shape. A much deserved carryover from eastern and lets the user know whether or not they have some deficiencies as far as the mod staff is concerned. I would not put much stock into it at this point as it usually lights up, as warranted, during active periods. Still a warning though to those out there whose posts are sub-par, consistently, and identified as such. New Rules been give Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 That is your warn bar, as long as it is empty you are in good shape. A much deserved carryover from eastern and lets the user know whether or not they have some deficiencies as far as the mod staff is concerned. I would not put much stock into it at this point as it usually lights up, as warranted, during active periods. Still a warning though to those out there whose posts are sub-par, consistently, and identified as such. Not to sound to elementary schoolish, but how come nobody else has that? I rarely even post, much less stir the pot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Not to sound to elementary schoolish, but how come nobody else has that? I rarely even post, much less stir the pot. your warn status is private, as between you and the staff... As long as the bar is empty, you are in good shape, no worries! No one else can see your warn stat, except for mods and admin. Nothing to fret, just a simple formality that preserves and maintains the integrity of the board during active periods... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 your warn status is private, as between you and the staff... As long as the bar is empty, you are in good shape, no worries! No one else can see your warn stat, except for mods and admin. Nothing to fret, just a simple formality that preserves and maintains the integrity of the board during active periods... Good grief. I understand now, and totally agree w/ its use. I thought other folks could see it! Sorry. I just turned forty...maybe that's factoring in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I see you point of sounding in areas where Elevation varies greatly. But I would bet that most folks use it within the bag of tricks. Hard to pin point soundings for exact Elevations. With that said, I use the $hit out of soundings for my area (roughly around to sightly over 1,100') in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Soundings have worked for me in my area. By the way I get soundi gs from the euro now so that should come in handy this winter. Also I live in the mtns and I am not reall expecting anything other that a few flurries or light snow showers. From AccuWx pro? Those technically arent soundings if that's what you're referencing. However, it's 100% more information than we used to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 lolz..... Soundings are a good forecast tool, dont get me wrong. I just have a problem with them in elevated areas. Im sticking with my guns here, if this thread busts I will be the first one to admit it. As long as you have exact coordinates, I cant imagine they could be too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 As long as you have exact coordinates, I cant imagine they could be too bad. Yeah, I would imagine a balloon would not encounter any turbulance or sharp winds 20,000 feet above mountainous terrain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Good grief. I understand now, and totally agree w/ its use. I thought other folks could see it! Sorry. I just turned forty...maybe that's factoring in... Not to worry. I asked Lookout in just the same way about it a few years ago I expect he is still laughing, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I can't help but notice that the title of this thread is "Thanksgiving weekend snow/ice threat", but I am really failing to see much of a threat at all. Note that I am not discussing anything for December - just the coming weekend. The past several runs of the GFS, including the intermediate runs, have been modifying the cold air that is due to arrive on Thursday/Friday, depending on where you live in the Carolina's. Just a few days ago for Asheville, it progged 850mb temps near -10°C and as of the latest run, they've been warmed to only -3°C - and with minimal, if any precipitation. I definitely don't see temperatures falling 30-40 degrees as was stated in the opening post in this thread. Let's remember that the long-range GFS has always had a known bias for it's super intense cold air outbreaks, only to slowly modify them over each successive model run. There is little doubt that it will be noticeably cooler this weekend over the warmth we are experiencing now. But it won't be nearly as bad as initially forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Tepid cold chasing the moisture. Now the one around the 5th has a low in the favorable parts of Fla. Were that to verify, with some actual cold air, it might have legs If we could only figure out a way to live in the long range Goofy....we'd be sledding all the time, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 I can't help but notice that the title of this thread is "Thanksgiving weekend snow/ice threat", but I am really failing to see much of a threat at all. Note that I am not discussing anything for December - just the coming weekend. The past several runs of the GFS, including the intermediate runs, have been modifying the cold air that is due to arrive on Thursday/Friday, depending on where you live in the Carolina's. Just a few days ago for Asheville, it progged 850mb temps near -10°C and as of the latest run, they've been warmed to only -3°C - and with minimal, if any precipitation. I definitely don't see temperatures falling 30-40 degrees as was stated in the opening post in this thread. Let's remember that the long-range GFS has always had a known bias for it's super intense cold air outbreaks, only to slowly modify them over each successive model run. There is little doubt that it will be noticeably cooler this weekend over the warmth we are experiencing now. But it won't be nearly as bad as initially forecast. This Tepid cold chasing the moisture. Now the one around the 5th has a low in the favorable parts of Fla. Were that to verify, with some actual cold air, it might have legs If we could only figure out a way to live in the long range Goofy....we'd be sledding all the time, lol. T And this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 This And this Lol, well, relatively speaking...anything over 25 after the summer/fall I've endured will seem tepid T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Lol, well, relatively speaking...anything over 25 after the summer/fall I've endured will seem tepid T Remember, last year I predicted a sleetacane for you this upcoming winter. Looks now to be around the 29th of Dec. FYI, did you know in a sleetacane that most people die from the sleet surge, not the sleet itself ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 BTW, Tony, I got my web site up and running. Check out the web cam! Northern Yancey County Webcam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 BTW, Tony, I got my web site up and running. Check out the web cam! Northern Yancey County Webcam That's good :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Nashville AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 547 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010 DISCUSSION... SCT CLOUDS 4-5 WITH VERY WARM TEMPS...UP TO 75 AT BNA. BLUSTERY S-SW WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO NEAR 30KT AT TIMES. TWO BIG WEATHER SYSTEMS ON THE WAY. TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A DEEPENING LO PRES CENTER MOVING NE THRU THE GRTLKS WILL DRAG A CDFNT INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN DROP OFF ONCE RAIN SETS IN. HIGHER POPS NW 1/2 TONIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR TONIGHT AND TUE...LOWERED DURING TUE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASES FM SW TUE NIGHT AS A WMFNT MOVES N. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS W LATE. WMFNT MOVES ACROSS WED AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CHANCE CAT. ELEVATED CONVECTION. A BREAK EXPECTED WED NIGHT. THU...NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER NRN MIDWEST AND STRONG HI PRES MOVES E OUT OF ROCKIES. FRONT MOVES MOVES IN W/ HI POPS THU AND THU NITE. CHANCE OF SOME LITE WINTRY PRECIP THU NITE AND EARLY FRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 My forecast from MRX Thursday Night: Rain showers likely before 4am, then snow showers likely. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday: Rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 BTW, Tony, I got my web site up and running. Check out the web cam! Northern Yancey County Webcam Is that Powerstroke on the plow??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Is that Powerstroke on the plow??? That's SnoJoe's front driveway during last years epic 2009-2010 winter snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 I can't help but notice that the title of this thread is "Thanksgiving weekend snow/ice threat", but I am really failing to see much of a threat at all. Note that I am not discussing anything for December - just the coming weekend. The threat is there, mainly just for TN now. I definitely don't see temperatures falling 30-40 degrees as was stated in the opening post in this thread. Not saying the 18zGFS is right but it clearly shows 30 degree drops with the frontal passage in TN and MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbanddoh Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 a place to discuss the weather? I love the interwebs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 BTW, Tony, I got my web site up and running. Check out the web cam! Northern Yancey County Webcam Lol Don't be lording it over the snow/sleet challenged, traveling boy, karma follows a twisty path...and payback is a mofo. How is that dog you saved last year, by the way? You must have earned a storm or two from that! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 I'm pulling for you! Tenn. certainly gets more chances than me. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Lol Don't be lording it over the snow/sleet challenged, traveling boy, karma follows a twisty path...and payback is a mofo. How is that dog you saved last year, by the way? You must have earned a storm or two from that! T I'm not sure. They moved while we were at the beach this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 Winter WX Advisory out for west TN and part of MS URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 355 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010 ...FIRST TASTE OF WINTER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY EVENING... .AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. A SHALLOW BUT MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD LAG THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT...THEREFORE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. ABOUT A 3 HOUR BURST OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE WARM GROUND...LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS MOST PRONE TO FREEZING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATION. ARZ026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ115-MSZ001-007-TNZ001>004- 019>021-048>054-088>090-251100- /O.NEW.KMEG.WW.Y.0010.101126T0300Z-101126T0900Z/ CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS- LEE AR-PHILLIPS-PEMISCOT-DESOTO-TUNICA-LAKE-OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY- DYER-GIBSON-CARROLL-LAUDERDALE-TIPTON-HAYWOOD-CROCKETT-MADISON- CHESTER-HENDERSON-SHELBY-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JONESBORO...HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE... WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...HELENA...CARUTHERSVILLE... SOUTHAVEN...OLIVE BRANCH...TUNICA...UNION CITY...MARTIN... DRESDEN...PARIS...DYERSBURG...HUMBOLDT...MILAN...HUNTINGDON... COVINGTON...JACKSON...LEXINGTON...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN... COLLIERVILLE...MEMPHIS...MILLINGTON...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR 355 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM CST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 3 AM CST FRIDAY. * ONLY MINOR SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT COULD FREEZE BRIDGES AND SECONDARY ROADS...ALLOWING FOR MORE ROBUST ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND SLEET ON THOSE SURFACES. * RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW AND SLEET BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT THURSDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY 3 AM. * SECONDARY ROADS AND BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME QUITE SLICK THURSDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Killer man. Keep us up-to-date on it!!! Winter WX Advisory out for west TN and part of MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 What is your final report on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 26, 2010 Share Posted November 26, 2010 What is your final report on this? Checked the obs in NW TN and can't find any evidence of frozen opf, looks like a classic case of the cold front chasing precip, with most stations >5F above the mark. http://forecast.weather.gov/obslocal.php?warnzone=TNZ090&local_place=3+Miles+WSW+Toone+TN&zoneid=CST&offset=21600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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