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TellicoWx

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Everything posted by TellicoWx

  1. TellicoWx
    12z EPS...cant ask for too much more at 5 days out
  2. TellicoWx
    12z EPS increasing totals again
  3. TellicoWx
    Not to sound too Willy Wonka, but if that NS energy were to ever speed up and fully phase, this storm could be even crazier.
  4. TellicoWx
    EPS will be interesting..previous 3 have had similar members as that OP run for TYS and slowly increasing each run. 00z had 7 members with 6"+ output.
  5. TellicoWx
    WNC mtns
  6. TellicoWx
    Think Jeff used some reverse psychology on the Euro that run (except for poor Hamilton Co) lol jk.
  7. TellicoWx
    Pushing 3' on northern plateau and a 12" in TYS.
  8. TellicoWx
    Yeah, it's still going on further frames
  9. TellicoWx
    Wow...mods can delete this if it violates anything.
  10. TellicoWx
    You guys along 40 across the state and north to KY line will also love this run.
  11. TellicoWx
    12z Euro coming in south of 00z, hammers all of the plateau.
  12. TellicoWx
    12z GEFS mean:
  13. TellicoWx
    Very interested in what the GEFS and especially the UKie did, it is usually a precursor to the Euro.
  14. TellicoWx
    Grit in SE forum said he was using the EWall 4 panel
  15. TellicoWx
    Hearing the Ukie is coming in with a big, but little late phase now in the gulf.
  16. TellicoWx
    Yeah the 12z runs out so far are taking baby steps towards what you have been discussing this morning and what was in MRX write-up with a more traditional Miller A.
  17. TellicoWx
    Ensemble trends for last 9 GEFS and 4 EPS runs. Oldest>Latest Mean Snowfall TRI: (GEFS) 3, 4, 4, 3.5, 3.5, 4, 4.5, 4.5, 6.5 (EPS) 1, 3, 5.5, 7 TYS: (GEFS) 2.5, 3.5, 3, 3.5, 3, 4, 3.5, 3, 5 (EPS) 3, 1.2, 2, 2.4 CROSS: (GEFS) 3.5, 5, 5, 4, 4.5, 5, 5, 3, 6 (EPS) 1, 3, 4, 4 The southern 1/4 of the state has generally stayed in the 1 to 1.5 range. While the OPs have been all over the place the last couple days, the ensembles have slowly been trending in the right direction for the upper half of the state.
  18. TellicoWx
    Yeah this thing is still in ensemble watch mode. Personally, an old friend of mine who was a met forever once told me 3+ days out =ensemble for upper pattern, 1-3 days = ops for the surface features, and under 1 day the meso models to fine tune things. The last 3 runs have seen the ensembles creep every slowly south and increase north of 40.
  19. TellicoWx
    0z EPS is almost identical to 12z, only change really was it increased the mean across NE TN.
  20. TellicoWx
    1" for both
  21. TellicoWx
    12z EPS mean: TRI: 6" TYS: 2" (south knox), 3.5" (north knox) Chat: 2" Cross: 4" Highest run so far for northeast TN. EPS looks almost identical to GEFS mean.
  22. TellicoWx
    12z EPS has went with a more southern solution vs previous run. Mean LP is south of PCB, FL.
  23. TellicoWx
    College of Dupage site does a better job taking the sleet out of the accumulation maps. Here's the 12z FV3 Kuchera:
  24. TellicoWx
    College of Dupage site does a better job taking the sleet out of the accumulation maps for the FV3. 12z FV3 Kuchera Acc map:
  25. TellicoWx
    Lol at Goofy "Aw crap I was suppose to have a storm along the coast, here let me blowup this LP near Charleston"
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