TellicoWx

18z GFS joins the other suites in the LR not shutting the Gulf down after this weekend.

It's lose/lose cause they had to open them here..i live right beside the Tellico River here in SE TN and we went into flood stage early this morning, if the tributary dams had not been pushing what they were, we would have had numerous water rescues. We are nearing 3" already, plus the modeled 6-7 thru this weekend and we will exceed the previous guidance from a few days ago. *bad part, as has been with everything modeled this winter on all models, is the bust factor (whether its pattern recognition, snowfall, or precip). Nearly every system has busted on the high side here this winter (except the snow one lol).

First one i posted was 240...i has all the systems

Totals thru the weekend system...Euro has 2 more systems next week. 1 Mon/Mon night (for southern areas), 2 Tues night/Wed region wide. Both have heavy rainfall.

EPS looks to follow the GEFS/Euro Op in increasing totals...hate to be TVA looking at the data. Its a lose/lose situation nearly.

12z GEFS and 12z Euro Op (waiting on EPS)

As Janet has mentioned...todays 12z suite is ugly region wide (pretty much every watershed into the MS from KY to the gulf gets hammered. Was hoping the Euro would disagree with the GEFS, but not. Theme of this winter looks to roll on...rain...24-36 hr break...rinse/repeat.

Nickajack is running wide open...nearing 1 mil gallon a sec.

Only good news I see across modeling, is the timing..with the spacing of the systems it allows enough drying for TVA to keep drawing down and FFG to lessen a little, but river guidance still remains the same.

As has been the case most winter...ensemble and short range hi res is busting low here. GEFS was closer (1.1), EPS (1.0), and the 3k NAM (.8) vs reality (1.6). Not sure about other locations, but when you combine what has fallen with what is modeled on the ensembles, the 7-9 consistently shown at the start of the weekend looks on track.

River is beginning to near crest, about 1 1/2' below flood stage. Received 1.63" overnight, bringing total to 2.75".

00z increased totals some:

Just had a message from Polk Co swift water team, deployed 3 hrs ago for two people submerged in a creek..unfortunately 1 fatality.

Picked up 0.11" so far today, and the gauge is already beginning to rise. There is zero water being soaked into the ground here, everything is going straight into the river. If we get anywhere close to 2003 level on the gauge, swift water teams will be deployed.

SWS just issued for tonight from MRX: Heavy rain forecast for today and tonight... Showers leading to heavy rain across eastern Tennessee and SW North Carolina for Sunday and Sunday night. Up to an inch and a half is possible especially across the southern Tennessee valley and the Smokey Mountains with possibly heavier local amounts. Due to the saturation of the ground from previous rain events, most of the rainfall is expected to result in excessive runoff with some areas of localized flooding possible. Stream flooding, roadway flooding, ponding of low level areas and potential mud slides are all possible. Lesser amounts are expected for the central valley region and more northern areas of the forecast area, including the Cumberland plateau. Due to saturated soils and rainfall from the last 24 hours, some local flooding could occur in the northern areas of the forecast area as well.

MRX AFD: Main flooding concern starts late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Strong upper jet becomes established over the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys with strong upper divergence over the area from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The direct circulation around this jet enhances the fronto-genetic forcing over the area and intensifies the 850mb southerly jet pulling in unseasonably high moisture. PWs increase to 1.4 to 1.5 inches which is above the daily climatology maximum. Another concern is that freezing heights are quite high which are also well above the daily climatology maximum. Layer above freezing will be greater than 10kft over much of the area helping to produce high rainfall rates. End result, another round of heavy rainfall over already saturated ground/high stream flows will set the stage for the potential of serious flash flooding concerns, especially over the Plateau, central-southern Tennessee, and southwest North Carolina. Will highlight this concern in the Hazardous Weather Outlook and Hydrologic Outlook. The persistent southwest flow continues through the end of the week with the potential of additional moderate to locally heavy rains for Thursday through Saturday. Overall, a very wet pattern with flooding concerns continuing. River flooding looks to be a major problem as well from mid to late next week, possibly into the next weekend.

Picked up 1.01" overnight, with a rise of 1.2' on the Tellico River. Currently at 3' (Flood stage is 9') some of the banks start topping a little sooner. One of the interesting things was how long it took to recede, continued rising 5 hrs after the rain stopped. Normally it takes a little less than an hour for the graph to begin falling, shows how much runoff is coming down the mountain.

Where the trailing 850 low goes, so does the waa and movement in snow ice. 12z NAM and GFS came in further north into TN compared to 06z. CMC pivoted to the coast further south over C AL.

College of Dupage site does a better job taking the sleet out of the accumulation maps. Here's the 12z FV3 Kuchera:

Lol at Goofy "Aw crap I was suppose to have a storm along the coast, here let me blowup this LP near Charleston"

To me the 500 and surface don't look bad, it's at the 850 level. There is a vort that is trending further north pulling waa with it.

MRX disco for Monday evening: Per SPC discussion, there is a potential of long-lived tornado supercells with the southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee placed in an enhanced potential of severe storms.

Had a possible tornado touchdown just south of Tellico Plains in Coker Creek area. 1 structure damaged alot of trees/power poles snapped. Currently 1048 FLEC customers out of power. No injuries.

lol...06z GFS increases totals across W NC and expands precip NW across E TN

Talked to my aunt a couple hours ago, she lives just west of Houston. Had heavy snow and lost power there.