TellicoWx
Members-
Posts
2,101 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by TellicoWx
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Problem with the plumes is they are basically an "ensemble" view of the NAM (use that loosely)...and they are like any other models ensembles at close range (jump more due to not being able to get a mean spread since it is so close to the event)...and in the fact they like to really overamp members, they arent good for totals. But they are one way to see a precursor of what the upcoming NAM run may do. They are for trend purposes only. As far as the RGEM, it used to be horrible IMBY..but the last year or so it has done a remarkable job on borderline events here. The more micro climates are at play, the more I pay attention to it.- 847 replies
-
- 4
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
9z SREF looks better than the 3z...mean looks more like what the 6z Euro map did Plumes still haven't loaded- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
WAA really getting going here this morning...temps in 20s in the valley, 50s at 1500'
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
0z GFS- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
GFS runs low up thru Charlotte- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, some of those bands really add up where they cross at- 847 replies
-
- 1
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
0z RGEM- 847 replies
-
- 2
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Atleast the RGEM hasn't lost hope lol- 847 replies
-
- 1
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
One thing that is prevelant behind the front on the 3k and HRRR, is the banding MRX was talking about...3k has some intense rates under them- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Soundings from Crossville and Athens after front passes thru @45 on the NAM..has a dry nose working in around the 700mb level- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I would believe it more than a deepening LP engaging the reverse and backing up lol- 847 replies
-
- 1
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
3k NAM takes 6hrs to go from Gatlinburg to Bristol- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, just for that simple reason I would toss it lol- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Then it goes into OH, before remembering it's supposed to be in WV lol- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Before everyone cliff jumps lol...while not good, any shift in the LP generation will have big impacts on East TN. Models don't handle lee side genesis well.- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Plume for Tys, (mean not quite as bad as viewing thru 12hr mean) but is skewed due to the big ones- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
For middle/west forum folks..mean catches the front, but jumps valley due to the late low...12 hr mean- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah...looking at the mean progression, looks to be in the WV camp- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
I dropped from 50% greater than 4" to 10%...40 north is 25%...NE TN 50%- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
15z vs 21z for eastern valley (heavier amounts barely make it into NE TN)- 847 replies
-
- 2
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
1" mean only makes it to TYS- 847 replies
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
21z SREF with a big shift east with the LP..not a good run for south of 40 in the valley- 847 replies
-
- 1
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Agree, with Blue Ridge and John...overnight crew will prob issue for the typical areas (mtns/ va/ky)..tomorrow crew at the earliest for everyone else (if needed). As far as the short range models, we are still outside their greater error range..until there's a clear picture of what happens during the passage over the Rockies, H5 will still bounce around.- 847 replies
-
- 3
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Maybe John (or one of you guys can remember)...What would be a similar system (in regards to the potential banding) in the past? May give some insight into which had a better handle (Euro or GFS).- 847 replies
-
- 1
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)
-
Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)
TellicoWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Something that strikes me, is the strength of the NW flow on that RGEM map...not often you see a model have the setup to take NW flow all the way to the SC coast.- 847 replies
-
- 3
-
- cold temperatures
- snow
- (and 8 more)