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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    there has to be phasing with some of those EPS members, no? i find it hard to believe you could get sub-985mb members with just the southern stream
  2. brooklynwx99
    a 2 sigma block at 12 days out is a serious signal. hope we can see this hold… this is the kind of block that can take over a pattern
  3. brooklynwx99
    now THIS is nice
  4. brooklynwx99
    gotta take your chances with amped lows here. weak sauce won’t work
  5. brooklynwx99
    959 LOL there has to be phasing with some of these. only way these lows can get that deep
  6. brooklynwx99
    EPS is way more amped
  7. brooklynwx99
    people are really just saying shit at this point. and using extended weekly control members to make proclamations about the pattern. wild times we live in
  8. brooklynwx99
    what
  9. brooklynwx99
    pretty significant trend to increase blocking and a subsequent 50/50 ULL. this changes the entire synoptic setup and makes a colder coastal storm with legit confluence more likely. need to see the ensembles pick up on this
  10. brooklynwx99
    that’s likely a transient pattern though. i wouldn’t expect that to stick around like that for more than a week as the Aleutian Low develops
  11. brooklynwx99
    agreed, although the 7th is low probability it’s still worth the most focus
  12. brooklynwx99
    the meat of your guy’s season (and really anyone south of NYC) is like Jan 20 through Feb 20. anything before that in a strong Nino is gravy. you guys can hit your averages in 48 hours different story if you’re in New England
  13. brooklynwx99
    can we at least get to NYD before all of this? lmao
  14. brooklynwx99
    theoretically, that cutter should force a block via wave breaking. that’s what we’re hoping for anyway. regardless, we’ll see a transition back to an Aleutian Low regime as the Pacific jet gets its act together
  15. brooklynwx99
    idk. i think most people expected very little through the first week of Jan or so. the forecast myself and a colleague made for our company had a blowtorch December lmao
  16. brooklynwx99
    looks like some more NS influence for the 7th. some phasing probably going on to get LPs that strong
  17. brooklynwx99
    ok. see you then!
  18. brooklynwx99
    it literally is cold enough to snow on the 7th though. this is why your point is lost on some. it takes a week to recover from like a +5 month, and it is cold enough for the risk on the 7th
  19. brooklynwx99
    wonder why we haven’t seen any posts about this, but we’ll use the GEFS to say that the planets might have to align for it to be cold enough to snow lmao
  20. brooklynwx99
    i wouldn’t really worry about the 384 hr GEFS when the EPS and GEPS are so different. regardless, that ridge is still transient
  21. brooklynwx99
    seems like there’s something coherent across all ensembles for the 7th. GEFS perked up the southern stream. some strong members in there
  22. brooklynwx99
    southern stream is more amped. strong members in there
  23. brooklynwx99
    turns into a significant WB -NAO
  24. brooklynwx99
    seems like the GEFS just burped. EPS cranks the -NAO
  25. brooklynwx99
    not bad at all. 50/50-ish feature from the departing 1/3-4 LP, nice southern stream vort, PV in Canada, brief ridge over the southwest, and blocking over the top. looks more like the EPS and GEPS at this point, but there are differences in how they handle the TPV, which is expected at this range. either way, this looks like our first legit threat
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