brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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yeah if it’s mid-Jan and we’re still staring at a torch for the next 10 days, i will be worried, but there are zero signs of that happening
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the “no changes” stuff is like easily one of the most annoying things ever. the goalposts can be moved forever since they’re never established to begin with changes in snowfall? height anomalies? the overall pattern? sun angle? geese population? can literally be anything
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and? this is later in the run as the pattern progresses
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late month is interesting. just for the sake of demonstration, I will use the 06z GFS OP from this morning we get a strong storm that’s in a marginal airmass that’s just a bit too warm for snow. however, given the weak SPV, we get in-situ -NAO blocking to form as a result, setting up a 50/50 ULL. on the Pacific side, the AK trough continues to retrograde, allowing for the PNA to spike. we end up getting a potent S/W that’s about to get trapped under the developing block with cold in place although this is an OP run, it does show a totally reasonable pattern progression that can get us from a torch to something favorable in about 7-10 days
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no changes!
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like i know it’s an OP run, but that’s a gorgeous pattern progression and the ENS are feeling it too. certainly something you wouldn’t complain about
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this is the run being complained about. you get one amped storm that leads to in-situ -NAO blocking and forms a 50/50. then, the AK trough retrogrades and pumps the PNA. S/W dives and amps. this would be a crusher verbatim
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the raising of Greenland heights over the last few ENS runs could really be a game changer. hopefully that’s legit and is a function of models feeling the weak SPV somewhat
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the evolution for the end of the month is pretty similar to the thoughts of myself, @psuhoffman and @CAPE. at first, the airmass is marginal for any larger storm after Christmas, and we get a rainstorm out of a pretty well-tracking system: however, that system then leads to wave breaking towards Greenland and the development of an in-situ -NAO. there is also retrogression of the AK trough, pumping the +PNA as a S/W amps: of course, these are OP runs at range and not really meant to be taken seriously. however, this is a reasonable pattern progression that shows how we go from an all out torch to one where we can actually see something of note
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GEFS continues to look good for Christmas week. now we have BN heights beforehand as well as AN heights poking towards Greenland
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they shouldn’t run these everyday. it’s overkill in my opinion
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this will work. what a ridge in central Canada. that'll promote HP in a good spot
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the EPS amps the trailing wave well. gets BN heights overhead from the initial wave. this could work great ridge over C Canada… should promote surface HP in a good spot too
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+10 air coming out of northern Canada is still cold enough for our intents and purposes
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large signal showing up for Christmas week… cold air will be an issue but worth tracking with a SS vort this potent. the Canadian ridge can also force transient HP downstream
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large signal showing up for Christmas week… cold air will be an issue but worth tracking with a SS vort this potent. the Canadian ridge can also force transient HP downstream
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worth noting that ENS would have a really hard time picking up on transient HP that’s forced by the Canadian ridge
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well, there’s your post-Christmas coastal signal. cold air is marginal here verbatim but still worth keeping an eye on
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that likely happens later in the winter when wavelengths shorten
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end of the month looking more and more interesting with a potent SS shortwave sneaking under anticyclonic flow in central Canada
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not sure how anyone can see these kinds of setups and not get excited about the rest of the winter. loaded southern stream showing up later in the month. wait until we get a legit -NAO to establish a 50/50 ULL and you're golden
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to be honest, I think that some of the source region stuff is a bit overrated. yes, we would prefer Canada to be cold, but that is usually not the case in El Ninos, even the prolific ones. for example, look at Feb 2010! there was +10-15C air right over SE Canada. made no difference. same with Feb 1987, Canada is torched
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“actually Nunavut is gonna be +20 so nobody cares if it’s -1 along the EC” as it’s literally snowing
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yeah, you’re probably correct there. those years usually don’t have amazing Pacific patterns
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i can pretty much guarantee that if we see a strong -NAO there could be a prolific period as long as the Pacific isn’t absolute garbage. we are seeing a strong STJ and zero indication of any persistent SE ridging
