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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    I suppose there may be blips, but it seems to overwhelmingly favor the IO through early March. I can see how after the 10th we break, but this should be longer than a couple weeks IMO
  2. brooklynwx99
    there is so much going for this change hemispherically that i find it very hard to believe that they're wrong. nothing is impossible, i guess
  3. brooklynwx99
    for those that don't see this pattern forming or really doing anything, there should be some kind of reasoning besides "I don't feel like it's going to." TIA
  4. brooklynwx99
    why? these patterns are pretty stable once they form, and the MJO just sorta rots in the IO. IO forcing in March is cold in Ninos. I expect it to warm up by mid-month, but blocking is pesky
  5. brooklynwx99
    I don't see any signs of this really breaking down once it forms until March 10th or so. should be a solid 3-4 weeks
  6. brooklynwx99
    I don't see that at all. that Aleutian low would gradually retrograde into March persistence forecasting wouldn't work here. this isn't a stable longwave configuration over the next 10 days
  7. brooklynwx99
    this time, it looks like we do indeed have a dominant SS with a weaker NS coming over the top. this is what you want for bigger, moisture laden storms
  8. brooklynwx99
    I see what you mean, I would just wait until we get a better Aleutian low to form with + heights poking into AK, analogs should be much better by that point. that looks too overwhelming at that moment, which is probably why 1998 is the top analog lmao
  9. brooklynwx99
    I also think that a lot of the extended modeling showing a dry month for Feb are skewed by how dry the first 10 days or so are. storm track looks active once we actually get into that more favorable pattern
  10. brooklynwx99
    you do have a potent STJ undercutting, so I think it increases the odds. the mid-Jan pattern had no STJ and it still managed to produce
  11. brooklynwx99
    well yeah, they're centered when the pattern looks like this, of course the analogs are going to be pretty crappy
  12. brooklynwx99
    crazy that we keep consistently seeing split flow like this
  13. brooklynwx99
  14. brooklynwx99
    if this is looking this good and the blocking signal is strengthening around the middle of next week, I'm going all in on this. everything seems to be coming together
  15. brooklynwx99
    wave breaking in quotes like it's some voodoo term. I can't
  16. brooklynwx99
    bump
  17. brooklynwx99
    same on the EPS. we have very good agreement today
  18. brooklynwx99
    I think the coast would do fine there given the low heights extending into the N Atl with the trough axis overhead. most amplification looks to occur offshore there. also, that block is in the process of retrograding and extending westward I do think the interior is favored with the initial storm around the 14-15th, though
  19. brooklynwx99
    nothing has gotten pushed back... it's been very consistently modeled
  20. brooklynwx99
    one could argue it's actually getting pushed quicker with time, definitely no pushing back here
  21. brooklynwx99
    GEFS and GEPS both look very good for mid-month. tall WC ridge building into AK, building -NAO, split flow, and deep E US trough
  22. brooklynwx99
    what are you talking about?
  23. brooklynwx99
    it'll look better in a few days when it has the -NAO retrograding
  24. brooklynwx99
    well, this is where we're at so far today. absolutely stellar looks from the GEFS and GEPS, and everything is moving forward in time
  25. brooklynwx99
    absurd split flow
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