brooklynwx99

the meat of your guy’s season (and really anyone south of NYC) is like Jan 20 through Feb 20. anything before that in a strong Nino is gravy. you guys can hit your averages in 48 hours different story if you’re in New England

can we at least get to NYD before all of this? lmao

theoretically, that cutter should force a block via wave breaking. that’s what we’re hoping for anyway. regardless, we’ll see a transition back to an Aleutian Low regime as the Pacific jet gets its act together

idk. i think most people expected very little through the first week of Jan or so. the forecast myself and a colleague made for our company had a blowtorch December lmao

looks like some more NS influence for the 7th. some phasing probably going on to get LPs that strong

ok. see you then!

it literally is cold enough to snow on the 7th though. this is why your point is lost on some. it takes a week to recover from like a +5 month, and it is cold enough for the risk on the 7th

wonder why we haven’t seen any posts about this, but we’ll use the GEFS to say that the planets might have to align for it to be cold enough to snow lmao

i wouldn’t really worry about the 384 hr GEFS when the EPS and GEPS are so different. regardless, that ridge is still transient

seems like there’s something coherent across all ensembles for the 7th. GEFS perked up the southern stream. some strong members in there

southern stream is more amped. strong members in there

turns into a significant WB -NAO

seems like the GEFS just burped. EPS cranks the -NAO

not bad at all. 50/50-ish feature from the departing 1/3-4 LP, nice southern stream vort, PV in Canada, brief ridge over the southwest, and blocking over the top. looks more like the EPS and GEPS at this point, but there are differences in how they handle the TPV, which is expected at this range. either way, this looks like our first legit threat

overall synoptics aren't bad... BN heights over the 50/50 region, nice southern stream vort, blocking over the top, weak SW US ridge spike, and it's cold enough for snow pretty much everywhere as long as you're north of any LP that develops

if you're going to post the GEPS when it shows a 48 hour long transient ridge in the east, might as well post it 48 hours later when the trough slips under the block

the 00z was the most aggressive yet, so that’s surprising

@GaWx is going to like the new Weeklies. wow

surface cold air isn’t established before that system moves in… simple as that, really

you’d be surprised… look at other sub forums and some of the recent posts in this thread

can we get through the first ten days of the month before canceling the entire winter? jesus christ

SSWs often drop the cold in Europe first. that’s nothing new. we’re getting a 50mb SPV lobe over us, though, so we should see strong blocking develop later in the month as well as colder air moving east. the last three SSWs that we had gave us significant blocking, and two of them were before prolific periods (March 2018 and Feb 2021) not sure why people are acting like this is a death knell. pessimism reigns supreme, I guess. we’re also going to ignore any snow chances during the first 10 days of the month as well?

looking at NAM plots, it seems like any SSW activity may rapidly downwell and lead to blocking mid-month. there’s usually a lag as it downwells, but it seems pretty efficient here or it could just be wave breaking activity. either way, this SSW likely downwells at some point this month, and we can see significant blocking because of it

if we get an anomalous block like that, the whole pattern evolution changes up

i’m liking 1957-58 more and more… had a very warm December, especially in the northern Plains. 500mb pattern also putrid. had a SSW and a very blocky Feb as a result. this Nino also started off very east based and migrated west similar to this one