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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    thought you might find this interesting. NAM shows full coupling of the strat and tropo mid-month associated with a final significant warming, which would provide a more stable blocking pattern
  2. brooklynwx99
  3. brooklynwx99
    here is where we stand by the 14th on all ENS... seems like a push forward, if anything. all are in very strong agreement
  4. brooklynwx99
    yes, my point was that this winter has been solid elsewhere and the pattern was good in mid-Jan, just got screwed north of Trenton. I know that isn't what people want to hear, and generally, we want to be able to ascribe a reason to everything, but it's just shit luck.
  5. brooklynwx99
    I'm probably going to give it a week or so until I post again hahaha I've said where I stand and have backed it up with evidence, so we'll see where the chips fall. people are antsy, annoyed, and are looking desperately for this to find any way to fail. can I blame them, no, but it doesn't really lend itself well to an honest discussion about the way things are moving
  6. brooklynwx99
    not everyone is. look at the Mid-Atlantic. they're AN to date
  7. brooklynwx99
    you have flow coming out of AK, though, seems like the air masses are of pretty good quality
  8. brooklynwx99
    this is a strong Nino, the other two years were Ninas. this should not act like those years. also, at some point, the worm has to turn, that's usually how it goes. I can't forecast by saying "well last year sucked, so this one will" when everything is pointing in the other direction
  9. brooklynwx99
    I suppose there may be blips, but it seems to overwhelmingly favor the IO through early March. I can see how after the 10th we break, but this should be longer than a couple weeks IMO
  10. brooklynwx99
    there is so much going for this change hemispherically that i find it very hard to believe that they're wrong. nothing is impossible, i guess
  11. brooklynwx99
    for those that don't see this pattern forming or really doing anything, there should be some kind of reasoning besides "I don't feel like it's going to." TIA
  12. brooklynwx99
    why? these patterns are pretty stable once they form, and the MJO just sorta rots in the IO. IO forcing in March is cold in Ninos. I expect it to warm up by mid-month, but blocking is pesky
  13. brooklynwx99
    I don't see any signs of this really breaking down once it forms until March 10th or so. should be a solid 3-4 weeks
  14. brooklynwx99
    I don't see that at all. that Aleutian low would gradually retrograde into March persistence forecasting wouldn't work here. this isn't a stable longwave configuration over the next 10 days
  15. brooklynwx99
    this time, it looks like we do indeed have a dominant SS with a weaker NS coming over the top. this is what you want for bigger, moisture laden storms
  16. brooklynwx99
    I see what you mean, I would just wait until we get a better Aleutian low to form with + heights poking into AK, analogs should be much better by that point. that looks too overwhelming at that moment, which is probably why 1998 is the top analog lmao
  17. brooklynwx99
    I also think that a lot of the extended modeling showing a dry month for Feb are skewed by how dry the first 10 days or so are. storm track looks active once we actually get into that more favorable pattern
  18. brooklynwx99
    you do have a potent STJ undercutting, so I think it increases the odds. the mid-Jan pattern had no STJ and it still managed to produce
  19. brooklynwx99
    well yeah, they're centered when the pattern looks like this, of course the analogs are going to be pretty crappy
  20. brooklynwx99
    crazy that we keep consistently seeing split flow like this
  21. brooklynwx99
  22. brooklynwx99
    if this is looking this good and the blocking signal is strengthening around the middle of next week, I'm going all in on this. everything seems to be coming together
  23. brooklynwx99
    wave breaking in quotes like it's some voodoo term. I can't
  24. brooklynwx99
    bump
  25. brooklynwx99
    same on the EPS. we have very good agreement today
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