brooklynwx99

CPK 15" EWR 19" LGA 17" JFK 14"

relax. i just remembered from last year we all have biases, not a huge deal. i just thought it was kinda funny

did the same thing last year lmao

closer look at the ET Pacific for those two years. I'd argue that it's quite difficult to get years about 10 years apart from each other to match up that well in that domain

not really. this is apples and oranges? sure, there was more NAO blocking in 2013 and no weak +PNA, but the ET Pacific is very similar, which seems to be the main focus of most of the LR discussion. I would argue that it's much more important than something as mercurial as the NAO domain

also with 2013-14 and the PDO... not sure why this has to be stated again and again either. that year has things going for it other than just the PDO, which, by the way, isn't really congruent with that we're seeing. the PDO isn't one of the reasons why that year is being used the orientation of the SSTs (hybrid/CP Nina), the QBO, and solar are all pretty solid matches. is it a perfect year by any means? no. do I expect it to get as cold as that year? absolutely not. does it deserve to get completely tossed aside? no... analog forecasting is about mixing a bunch of years that can bring something to the table, and that year is one of them. I can see episodes of -EPO blocking showing up, just not nearly as persistently the extratropical Pacific could render the year useless, but it's never really ever that simple

the WB map is a control run... it's only showing one scenario. the TT map is an average of the last 12 forecasts. they are showing fundamentally different things. this gets rehashed every time people post a WB CFS map

yeah I think of it as more of a constructive/destructive interference indicator more than anything

it’s never quite that simple

north Pacific SSTs aren’t the main reason why it’s a useful analog. it’s a pretty good ONI match, similar ENSO SST orientation, and it’s a good solar and QBO match. no analog is perfect… I don’t expect nearly the same amount of persistent AK ridging as that year

yes, the weather never changes, obviously

the ECMWF seasonal is actually pretty solid looking at 500mb, similar to the CFS and CanSIPS with hints of AK ridging and elongated TPV into SE Canada Feb especially has the -EPO signal. seems like that will be a factor this year

if the Bomb Cyclone in Jan 2018 was closer to the coast, that would have been the widespread 24-36" event. Juno, obviously, was close as well. it's just a matter of time, really

I do think that winters are going to become almost solely boom or bust depending on which kind of cycle we're in... right now, we're in the bust cycle. true "normal" winters within 25% of average are going to be harder and harder to come by however, I'm reasonably confident that when the EC sees a favorable pattern for an extended period of time, which will happen, it's probably going to be quite the year. if we go into a +PDO regime and still can't get anything going through 2035 or so that's when I'll fully re-evaluate my expectations

yeah, I remember in the 2013-14 and 2014-15 winters when people in the West were wondering if the anomalous warm and dry winters were going to be the "new normal." how silly that sounds at this point

yes, I do not think that there will be -NAO blocking of that magnitude. out of the snowy winter scenarios, 2013-14 with poleward AK ridging makes more sense than 2010-11

2020-21 and 2010-11 are pretty good analogs... you don't have to think the winter will be as cold/snowy as those years for them to be viable they both match up well with ONI, they both have a more hybrid/basin-wide orientation rather than a EP or Modoki event, the PDO was negative (strongly so in 2010-11), and the QBO is a good match as well. solar isn't a good match, but it's not an end-all-be-all for analogs. I feel like it gets overstated a bit, if anything they have enough similarities to what we'll be seeing for them to be included. those years get evened out when you have winters like 1999-00 and 2022-23 being weighed heavily

13-14 is actually a pretty decent analog. unfortunately, so is 22-23, which was a major dud

probably going to end up as more of a hybrid event, but i agree that this doesn’t look canonically EP

this Nina is also on life support with westerly anomalies forecast across the ENSO basin to close out the month... this will halt the drop in ONI or even lead to a slight warming wouldn't be shocked if we saw a cold neutral ONI with a weak Nina RONI in the -0.5 to -0.8 range

I agree there, it is not a perfect analog by any means, but the similarities also can't be ignored. just one analog out of many, it's worth consideration I'd probably take it over the strong Ninas like 1998-99 since there's almost no way the Nina gets that strong, even with RONI

13-14 wasn't one of my top analogs, though it does have some merit... very similar with solar, and the summer pattern / temps thus far have been very similar

the CFS is probably the best case scenario for winter lovers in the east... the Aleutian ridge has much more of a poleward component and allows a bit of a +PNA to develop. I am very skeptical of any kind of prolonged +PNA with the state of the PDO, though this does echo Raindance's 2013-14 analog fairly well

I don't think we're going to see much winter success until the PDO flips, though it seems we're approaching the end of the cycle... we've been in a -PDO regime since the late 90s and these cycles usually have a 20 year lifespan

the farther south you go, the more luck is a factor as well. people don't really like to admit that since it isn't really quantifiable, but it's true