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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    It’s coming in slowly on WxBell but it’s a mauling for almost all of us with plenty of wiggle room SE of cities… maybe even best down there.
  2. NorthArlington101
    I'm giving this a "true, but misleading" like Snopes. If you check the next 6 hr interval (so looking at 132 at 18z), it's trended colder run over run. Can cherry pick these little shifts anyway ya really want to at range.
  3. NorthArlington101
    What I've been trying to track is the 50th percentile on the ens... so the median vs. the mean. If I remember my STAT 101 (I might not) it's a better control for outliers, both positive and negative. that said, here is the 18z. It's better than 12z in the metro, little worse out west, but it's mostly just been oscillating back and forth.
  4. NorthArlington101
    7:50ish… starting momentarily
  5. NorthArlington101
    If the storm trends badly after someone makes a thread, may the lord have mercy on that person.
  6. NorthArlington101
    I respect the snow depth map as a “worst case” scenario. With 33 and ripping… it’s not gonna have any trouble stacking up. We did fine with much much less on Dec. 10 earlier in the year.
  7. NorthArlington101
  8. NorthArlington101
    It’s a mauling
  9. NorthArlington101
    https://x.com/burgwx/status/1741867069488890044?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg
  10. NorthArlington101
    Tomer Berg said something to that effect on Twitter earlier IIRC
  11. NorthArlington101
    Sorta legit -SN in Tysons
  12. NorthArlington101
    Ah, my bad. At this range I prefer the snowiest snow map anyway
  13. NorthArlington101
    not done yet!
  14. NorthArlington101
    Pretty classic RA/SN gradient but verbatim DC is fine through 135 Surface temps not technically cooperating but upper levels are
  15. NorthArlington101
    Very light mix downtown DC
  16. NorthArlington101
    Must be a temp problem because it's naso good until you get out into the burbs. 6-8"+ your way. realize nj2 said this earlier
  17. NorthArlington101
    Just visualized what you said - don't drop below 0c 850.
  18. NorthArlington101
  19. NorthArlington101
    It may be semantics, but for a storm without "HECS" upside, I see a few HECS (my definition at least - zones of 18"+) in the GEFS.
  20. NorthArlington101
  21. NorthArlington101
    third level of blue unlocked
  22. NorthArlington101
    about how many hours out would you recommend tracking geese migrations?
  23. NorthArlington101
    Verbatim the GFS snow depth map is ugly for the cities - at least compared 10:1. Buuuutt I recall the December storm where ground temps sucked and rates + darkness overcame. If we start overnight and it's as heavy as the winning runs have been I think the max upside isn't a difficult reach. Expect 2" and some slop and most of us will probably be happy though
  24. NorthArlington101
  25. NorthArlington101
    Posting an unfinished run snowmap to scare people, smh. @ji better? Psu fringed, but I’d wager he’d come in and say the surface depiction was wrong
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