NorthArlington101

hahaha had to stealth edit that one. She might be watching… it’s still the law student girlfriend. Whichever one of you said she’d find someone better… not yet!

Hey all, just wanted to wish ya’ll luck and apologize for any negativity that was coming from me in the days leading up to this one. We all know how much (unhealthily - for some of us - aka me) we care about snow. I let my personal moodiness with missing this one get in the way of how I’ve tried to improve myself as a poster: less snark, more objective analysis (or at least maps without an agenda). Go kill them tomorrow/Monday. Will pop in to look at some pics and share any good ones/obs I get from my girlfriend and dedicated network of snow spotters. Onwards and upwards.

Uh oh

I know I said earlier today we should axe half the models but we need to get the ECWMF folks to code a short-range EURO. That would hit the spot

@Deck Pic whoops - meant to tag @WxUSAF - but @nj2va got it handled

@stormtrackersince I banned myself from the storm thread.

It’s gonna be a slight reduction on the northern end

Take a little solace that those are 10:1 ratios - you’ll do a little better, south does a little worse

UKIE is a stubborn mfer. It nailed Hurricane Irma back in the day but otherwise I truly think it’s a JV model.

I’m making a vow - if we end up predicted as a Miller A with 8”+ by next Thursday/Friday, I’m coming back. No wishy-washy bs this time.

I can’t deal with this Jan 11 storm man. Can we delay it a few days. Please??

I think this makes DC the place to be for this one. Snow town! This storm does have serious “screw someone” energy just cause the range is wide. I’d lean Richmond than the MD/PA border. Good time to be in the middle.

There are way too many models. Need to cut the number in half, at least. Pull the plug on a few.

Ens really don’t like this one much (minus GEPS, actually!) but it’s such a complicated pattern it’s hard to put too much stock into it. Like seeing hits on the OPs.

It’s like a 3-6”er verbatim. 5-8 CVA south. I’d fly back in for this one if it pans out. Not doing this twice.

I’d just about guarantee a warning-level event. Like @Deck Pic’s 5-8”+ call. Been telling friends 7” but wouldn’t be shocked if it’d 10”. North shift, south shift, don’t think A-Town can go too wrong.

I live in DC now, but tend to camp out for snowstorms in Arlington at my parent’s still since the elevation matters. On vacay for this one though. Did set up a house cam for some pretty low-qual video footage just to check in. But if you happen to be jebwalking in that corner of the hood, would always appreciate a much better quality shot lol

Good to see you, BTW! Counting on you to be the measurement for me in North Arlington. If you get the time, take a walk up Kensington St. between Williamsburg and Harrison and snap a pic.

Doing a live test of this theory… GFS has KC at 8.7” Kuchera. Would thus expect a run somewhere in the middle of RGEM/3k

Thankfully pleasure. Imagine missing snow for a business trip. I shudder at the thought

Also I can’t wait until the Jan 6 storm is done so I can stop being a deb. Unless there is also a Jan 11-12 storm.. or an MLK day storm. I need to stop traveling

I banned myself from the Jan 6 thread but it would do people a service to remember this come Sunday - will probably be able to forecast quite a bit depending on the axis of stuff out west and the reality of the situation there. This is a storm we’ll be able to “see coming” - it’s not entirely forming out of the blue. someone with more time on their hands could probably make a line chart with forecasted snow in KC and corresponding totals in DC to see if it ends up predictive… If I wasn’t tired and sick I’d do it

N. Arl 1/3: 0.5 D.C 1/3: T + like a half-dozen tiny traces at both