NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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11th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest
NorthArlington101 replied to RodneyS's topic in Mid Atlantic
made modest tweaks upwards based on good vibes - will probably regret it! -
Only checked after I posted - but the 12k NAM, FV3, and RGEM are all "in" for some snow showers. RGEM illustrates a strip that might get dusted. Most of the interested models push something W-E right across the area.
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Since I tend to just focus on the next possible chance even if the odds are bad... I've still got a slight amount of interest in snow showers/mood flakes on Sunday. This isn't the kind of event where I'd expect the ENS to succeed, but the 06z EPS ens have a handful of festive members.
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GFS with a wicked storm on the 7th-8th. Nasty snow thump to mixy ice to mostly a dryslot.
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Are we punting December in November?
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Looks like a good weekend for lake effect snow. Wish it wasn’t also Thanksgiving weekend - would be a solid chase opportunity.
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All the ens are pretty much snoozers for the next 10 days. Enjoy the cold!
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Thanks for the clarification. What I think I was trying to say, and still happy to be corrected on, was that this seems like a good spot for the pass, at least based off my memory. Definitely need stronger.
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00z GFS joins its ensembles in trying to get a coastal going Sunday, fails to get anything notable going but nice to see the OP hop on with the general idea. It looks like a pretty ideal vort pass. Just need more juice.
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Couple notable coastals, handful of members with storms in the “right where we want ‘em” range. More members than not still drawing blanks though.
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Feels like something that’ll juice up in the short-range or not at all. Long as the ghost of the wave is still a thing I’m okay with where we stand to get some flakes in the air.
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Mid-Atlantic Snow Totals Thread 2024-2025
NorthArlington101 replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
11/22 - T -
More importantly it has the Sunday clipper! Very quick hitting but I’d take a ground-whitener.
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Both the GFS and CMC suggest a clipper is a possibility next Sunday. Probably our next “real” shot with the Turkey Day shenanigans on life support.
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I don’t think it’s gonna be meaningful in either case but 00z GFS and CMC seem to be making meaningful moves towards a more AI Euro-like evolution.
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I walk or bike to work. I’m now mostly in the camp of “if it’s not gonna snow it might as well be 70.” Cold blows.
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Supposedly better in some ways, worse in others (worse resolution). They have a write up on their site: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system Either way, should in theory have some utility. It’s not a waste to look. It is firmly on an island right now, though.
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Didn’t cave at 18z, but still too warm at the surface!
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18z GFS is gonna be a day earlier than the AIFS again it looks like. Difference is very clear at ~3 days on the GFS. Again, this is mostly an exercise in my head to reference later to see if the AI is gonna do anything for us this winter, but GFS pushes the energy onshore at like hr66. It gets held back and weakened on the AIFS which lets more cold build in/suppresses things south in the long run. Note the time differences below.
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12Z EURO AIFS stays consistent with a pretty ideal track. It's just iffy surface temps. 850s tighter this go around too. Regardless of whether this threat has any legs, interesting test of whether the AIFS might be sniffing something out
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I’ll wait for my AI darling to let us down before I let the fat lady sing. Spire also has a storm… AI revolution? [emoji6]
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Ignore me! Read more, post less. [emoji6] Thought it was looking more like its AI component for a second… WxBell was releasing partial info from later in the run. Didn’t turn out as hoped.
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Dangerous prognosticating from someone who doesn’t really know what he’s doing but I think the 12z EURO is gonna be a step in the right direction for us.
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06z AI Euro shows the path to a successful Thurs/Friday. Surface is still too warm, but with the 850s I imagine this is snow. Pretty identical to its 00z run too. Slightly better timing allowing accumulations to start overnight could = success
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One may solve the other a little bit but yes, a lot needs to go right here. I know I was still sorta in yesterday but I’m feeling out this morning. All in on Dec. 5th still though.
