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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    psu would rather a snowless winter than getting nickled and dimed. Maybe he'd be okay with getting quartered and half-dollared
  2. NorthArlington101
    Don't quite fully succeed on Jan. 6 but would only take reasonable adjustments for this range. This is before a flip to rain with a less-than-ideal transfer for us. Primary goes from TN -> OH instead of TN -> offshore.
  3. NorthArlington101
    12z EURO is closer on Jan. 4, but still a ways to go to have that trend our way. Might be teeing up the @HeisyJan. 6 storm, though
  4. NorthArlington101
    The reason I know things are at least a little dire is we’ve dedicated a page of our long-range thread to that wheel, lol.
  5. NorthArlington101
    I’ve been (anecdotally) unimpressed but others, including folks I respect (e.g., Matt Lanza) have blogged about use cases where anecdotally it does very very well. It’s lost some recent fights with its parent locally… but it scores well and I personally think this is one of the stronger AI use-cases.
  6. NorthArlington101
    def agree that the track isn't ideal - just saying it is enough verbatim. Better transfer and it's much more significant, but I'd take the 3-5"er I think it shows and happily board my a flight to my tropical destination 2 days later. 850s surface
  7. NorthArlington101
    It’s definitely wintry precip on that run looking at thermals. Guess it’s plausible it flips to ice since I can’t see every layer on WxBel
  8. NorthArlington101
    EPS still says shut the door til 1/6. 1/6 has a fairly quality signal but not a lot of immediate support for the 1/9 idea. Looks cold and fairly dry at long long range.
  9. NorthArlington101
    No - that's a good storm for this area. @donsutherland1did his whole analysis - we don't get a ~6" storm in January often. Would be bummed to miss this one, but not bummed enough to not vacation. Starting to get pretty down about the chances of anything before Jan 7. May just have to take my lumps.
  10. NorthArlington101
    GFS for 1/9
  11. NorthArlington101
    ... always tough when the best posters go quiet
  12. NorthArlington101
    yeah it's like 37 when it's snowing - this might be a generous read
  13. NorthArlington101
    I'm only interested in drought-busting snows, sorry.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Really wish the EPS would show any precip around for the 3rd-5th window but it's dry as a bone... too bad since the GFS keeps trying to show a hit somewhere in the subforum in that period.
  15. NorthArlington101
    GFS tries on Jan 2 but it’s really too warm at the surface… need to push that storm back a few days or at least overnight.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Everything looks fantastic on the ens for an active period… clear we’ve got a couple windows. All we need is the snow median on the ens to start ticking up
  17. NorthArlington101
  18. NorthArlington101
    Unfortunately this is all due to one member that shows a BECS - that’s the only snowy member for the 4th. Still plenty of time, though, ho ho ho.
  19. NorthArlington101
  20. NorthArlington101
    18z AI EURO has a modest hit Jan. 5. Little more fuel for the Jan 4-6 threat window fire.
  21. NorthArlington101
    With enough willpower, we can combine our forces and make the storm in the 4th-6th window or postpone the best pattern til mid/late January. Keep manifesting!
  22. NorthArlington101
    Doesn’t look too far off something under the hood
  23. NorthArlington101
    GEFS is all over the place wrt exact timing but says you could in theory score starting the 2nd and rolls chances through after that.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Didn’t matter much but this band was fairly under-modeled as we got closer to the event. HDRPS had one of the better performances, I think.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Little glaze of sleet on the apartment patio furniture. Not enough to whiten Gonzaga High School’s football field, but glad to finally see winter.
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