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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    If we got the Jan 4 storm back, it would be a nice reminder of the timeframe our storms usually appear in. I’m one of the guilty parties, but we’ve been trying to track individual threats in the long range for a week now, lol.
  2. NorthArlington101
    Oops - one too many tonight. Happy Holidays! Nice to see the Jan 6/7 surviving.
  3. NorthArlington101
    Saw you took back the DOA post. Good to hedge! what’s really missing this run is that Jan 5-6th storm… vanished entirely. Coming to grips with the fact that this pattern’s best shot at producing will be firmly while I’m drinking a marg on the beach. Worse problems to have
  4. NorthArlington101
    18z AI Euro is .5-.7” of precip region wide for the 5th/6th. Snow to ice to snow. Best run for that period yet.
  5. NorthArlington101
    It looks strange on Pivotal - not sure what to make of that
  6. NorthArlington101
    your AI EURO friend has something along those lines for the 5th - keeps going more amped/not as great for our subforum, though
  7. NorthArlington101
  8. NorthArlington101
    This happens every year we get a good pattern... the smartest posters (not me) identify the good pattern 2-3 weeks early. one week later, the dumber posters (this is me) panic because it hasn't snowed yet it doesn't actually snow this is optional - it could actually snow this time
  9. NorthArlington101
    https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=pwat
  10. NorthArlington101
    the distribution is great, as @Eskimo Joenoted sniping me with that tweet. But as others have mentioned, the ceiling outcomes are lacking, which troubles some more than others. I love stacking small/medium events... the median being sorta close to the mean excites me. hey, you were the one who told me to check!
  11. NorthArlington101
    honestly it's nothing too special - but we'd take. Well, you all would. I'll be on vacay rage ignoring the weather. it is good seeing the median get higher, though.
  12. NorthArlington101
    I see 6/7th, 8/9th, and then cold/drier for the end of the run but door still open. Weekies keep the possibilities open throughout Jan with the snow mean for weeks 3/4 being respectable. The 4th also trended a hair better.
  13. NorthArlington101
    GEFS and GEPS are interesting though hardly slam dunks for the Jan 5-7th window. A bit of a suppression signal on the means - smarter people will probably post better analysis. GEPS pretty aggressive - GEFS less so. GEPS snow mean for Jan 5-12th:
  14. NorthArlington101
    psu would rather a snowless winter than getting nickled and dimed. Maybe he'd be okay with getting quartered and half-dollared
  15. NorthArlington101
    Don't quite fully succeed on Jan. 6 but would only take reasonable adjustments for this range. This is before a flip to rain with a less-than-ideal transfer for us. Primary goes from TN -> OH instead of TN -> offshore.
  16. NorthArlington101
    12z EURO is closer on Jan. 4, but still a ways to go to have that trend our way. Might be teeing up the @HeisyJan. 6 storm, though
  17. NorthArlington101
    The reason I know things are at least a little dire is we’ve dedicated a page of our long-range thread to that wheel, lol.
  18. NorthArlington101
    I’ve been (anecdotally) unimpressed but others, including folks I respect (e.g., Matt Lanza) have blogged about use cases where anecdotally it does very very well. It’s lost some recent fights with its parent locally… but it scores well and I personally think this is one of the stronger AI use-cases.
  19. NorthArlington101
    def agree that the track isn't ideal - just saying it is enough verbatim. Better transfer and it's much more significant, but I'd take the 3-5"er I think it shows and happily board my a flight to my tropical destination 2 days later. 850s surface
  20. NorthArlington101
    It’s definitely wintry precip on that run looking at thermals. Guess it’s plausible it flips to ice since I can’t see every layer on WxBel
  21. NorthArlington101
    EPS still says shut the door til 1/6. 1/6 has a fairly quality signal but not a lot of immediate support for the 1/9 idea. Looks cold and fairly dry at long long range.
  22. NorthArlington101
    No - that's a good storm for this area. @donsutherland1did his whole analysis - we don't get a ~6" storm in January often. Would be bummed to miss this one, but not bummed enough to not vacation. Starting to get pretty down about the chances of anything before Jan 7. May just have to take my lumps.
  23. NorthArlington101
    GFS for 1/9
  24. NorthArlington101
    ... always tough when the best posters go quiet
  25. NorthArlington101
    yeah it's like 37 when it's snowing - this might be a generous read
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