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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    I don’t think we’ll ever see a WSW out of this one, even for RIC, imo. AKQ is a cautious office and you have to dismiss the 5”+ runs as outliers, especially given the reality that rain is preceding the storm and temps are cooperative enough but not frigid.
  2. NorthArlington101
    FWIW (probably fairly little), here are the latest ENS runs for our Monday threat.
  3. NorthArlington101
    Anyone know anything about the FV3 Hi-Res? Does it run off the same core/physics/whatever the term is as the current GFS? They couldn’t look more different on the surface.
  4. NorthArlington101
    I’ll take the under
  5. NorthArlington101
    Frankly adding that second map half refuted my nice post earlier: not much of a consensus within the GEFS, lol. Guess that’s what a blend is for, but hardly makes you confident in any outcome.
  6. NorthArlington101
    Mean is relatively similar to that of above but a slight tick better. For comparison…
  7. NorthArlington101
    One more post before I allow myself to enjoy my New Year's Eve and not track a storm I won't be in Virginia for: the GEFS/EPS look pretty similar. If I was setting expectations and was currently in Arlington, I'd allow myself to be hopeful but take the ensemble blend and see a pretty likely outcome. YMMV.
  8. NorthArlington101
    Almost trended towards looking like a usable piece of guidance. I remember it having a cold bias previously... it and the HDRPS surely have a constant issue with overdoing banding/QPF. Noticed it in the summer too.
  9. NorthArlington101
    Closer
  10. NorthArlington101
    For sure - if I was gambling on a northern/more amped trend, I’d take the 12z by a mile.
  11. NorthArlington101
    Honestly, EURO looks very much like the UKIE. Reminds me of the days where the UKIE would seem to be fairly predictive of its European cousin.
  12. NorthArlington101
    Making no statement on the H5/how close it is to something better: 00z actually had more snow for the DC/NOVA area than 12z. Compared to 6z, this run is pretty similar with the difference of a slightly more robust northern shield that goes thru Charlottesville and just being better organized, leading to a tighter looking/more intense snow band.
  13. NorthArlington101
    Holds rather steady from 06z. Good storm for the Tidewater.
  14. NorthArlington101
    I’ll try my hand — seeing some fairly marked differences between the GFS/CMC and EURO through hr63. Don’t think it’ll get there this time.
  15. NorthArlington101
    Good discussion between Webb/Ant. Most of it goes over my head but for the interested:
  16. NorthArlington101
    Based on snowfall maps alone, UKIE took a step in the right direction from 00z to 12z but keeps anything substantive closer to the Tidewater.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Giggling a bit toggling the last two CMC runs. Just minor adjustments from our weather models ~3 days out.
  18. NorthArlington101
    If this event somehow works out, ya’ll owe me for taking this trip to Puerto Rico. I’ll drop my Venmo and you can all send me a fiver.
  19. NorthArlington101
    12z CMC looks like a hit looking at the maps on Pivotal.
  20. NorthArlington101
    I wouldn’t get excited if I was in the tidewater, either. GFS/RGEM being the only things that show substantial accumulation is iffy, IMO. Especially how heavy it shows it and with this being a rain/snow flaky situation. Not quite sure how models resolve when the changeover occurs.
  21. NorthArlington101
    So sorry to hear that - my thoughts are with you and your family.
  22. NorthArlington101
    this do?
  23. NorthArlington101
    Slightly further SE
  24. NorthArlington101
    EURO took maybe a slightly more NW jog, I can’t see many changes at 500mb but I’m hardly a pro. Surface map.
  25. NorthArlington101
    pretty sure it’s 6:45/6:50, fwiw
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