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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    I'm going to bed before it takes my snow away at 04z. Good luck everyone!
  2. NorthArlington101
    please
  3. NorthArlington101
    honestly, I might take it back. it oscillates back and forth. I still think the models are having trouble figuring out exactly where to place the MSLP. Not that I expect it to bail us out at this point. Anyways, these were the panels I was looking at. 00z 18z
  4. NorthArlington101
    ^ looks like it depend what maps you use. Could easily be 33 and rain or ya could call it wintry mix at 21. Lot of people on the edge. DCA doesn't even get above 33.
  5. NorthArlington101
    12z NAM took a tiny but appreciable jog east. That tiny jog will matter for someone. Probably not me.
  6. NorthArlington101
    Fine, I'll say it. The high is currently stronger than modeled. Current analysis: What was progged:
  7. NorthArlington101
    this is your way of saying you think we're gonna boom a bit without committing to it... right?
  8. NorthArlington101
    All the stations near me are down to 33. Even a couple 32 degree readings. Really think we got a shot at keeping temps lower than progged. 33/22 in N Arlington near the FFX border, ~360ft
  9. NorthArlington101
    you got a favorite site you use to see cloud cover?
  10. NorthArlington101
    Also: GEFS took a notable jog east. Does it matter? Probably not. But add it to the weenie list of things that could be taken as a good sign. 18z 12z
  11. NorthArlington101
    Just for fun... GEFS probs.
  12. NorthArlington101
  13. NorthArlington101
    Averaging the stations near me and going 35/21. Feel like it’s running a little colder than progged.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Point-and-click (and the WSW) would suggest I've got a better shot at having fun/seeing snow in Charlottesville... but I think I'm too lazy to make the drive to see maybe an extra 1-2" with a crusty top. Feel like the boom odds might be slightly better in Arlington anyways. That's what I'm telling myself, at least. Never got quite as warm today as it was supposed to -- missed the high by about 3 degrees. 38/22.
  15. NorthArlington101
  16. NorthArlington101
  17. NorthArlington101
    west. my bad. i'll edit it.
  18. NorthArlington101
  19. NorthArlington101
    EURO went even more west. Would definitely an outlier in its 6z ensembles, but not sure that matters. Still get 2" from the initial thump, even in the city. Better measure it before the rain begins to really ramp up.
  20. NorthArlington101
    Depends what you define as worth it! I'd still assume you see a 1' of snow. Should rip for awhile, at least.
  21. NorthArlington101
    I fully recognize the ensembles are not that relevant at this point, but it is odd to see them well east of the OP.
  22. NorthArlington101
    The best part of any bad run is when it brings others down with you
  23. NorthArlington101
    I suppose it's not shocking that the HDRPS is cold on the surface. Unlike the CMC though, the HDRPS only drops DCA to 27/28 tonight (the actual forecasted low). Keeps DCA below zero till the end of its run (48) tomorrow though.
  24. NorthArlington101
    yeah, it takes DCA down to 24 tonight. I'd be skeptical. That said, quite the difference in guidance. I know I'd lean towards being hurt.
  25. NorthArlington101
    man, this is something. I guess I'd lean GFS here... will be interesting to see what it looks like 8pm tomorrow.
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