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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    EURO is a fairly big south shift. Not even good enough for CHO. Decent for RIC. From 3" to a T in CHO. brutal actually.
  2. NorthArlington101
    The FV3/RGEM/HDRPS/NAM/CMC being the northernmost models is almost a perfect throwback to December 9. I ignored them last time. Won't be doing so again. Still planning on heading back north for this one. God help me.
  3. NorthArlington101
    FV3 isn't that garbage in short range. Did better than the GFS for the Jan storm and 12/09, but that is probably mostly because it tends to snow a lot more snow and those were both positive busts for areas they hit. It almost looks like it wants to turn the Saturday storm into a coastal with that north-to-east heavy stripe.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Usual jog north and...
  5. NorthArlington101
    think this needs to be bumped again, only an hour or so later
  6. NorthArlington101
    I guess it can’t be definitely stated that there is no repetitive pattern of some kind but it just seems like saying “we’re due” is simply falling victim to the Gambler’s Fallacy. Think many people (including myself) fall victim to the “we’re due index”.
  7. NorthArlington101
    I really like my family, so not sure if 1-2” would motivate me to stay in CHO. Also there is the risk that it moves north last second and then I get double screwed. We’ll see...
  8. NorthArlington101
  9. NorthArlington101
  10. NorthArlington101
    12Z FV3 looks like a tick north as well. .25" seems to run either just south or right through DCA, per cruddy ncep maps.
  11. NorthArlington101
    If we are starting to draw a connection between the 12/09 storm earlier this year, then NOVA stands in a great spot right now. Most people don’t appreciate the final north jump that storm made because it wasn’t enough for most, but it the jackpot zone jumped 100+ miles from where the GFS had it 48 hours out. The EURO struggled too. Snow got to Mt. Vernon when it was modeled to struggle to get all that much past CHO.
  12. NorthArlington101
    WPC's present thoughts:
  13. NorthArlington101
    Saturday trending the wrong way is on me. I started making concrete plans to come back to Arlington so things shifted back to a Charlottesville jackpot. Curse is real.
  14. NorthArlington101
    FV3 a hair more north and less amped overall. No streak of 0.5" qpf like on the GFS.
  15. NorthArlington101
    yeah that's nice for central/southern VA. Jackpot runs CHO and due west. Can't discount that. Decisions, decisions... While I'm here, I'll post the 18z EURO snowmap. Saw the QPF but not sure it did an accurate job of showing what happened. Good swath of solid advisory level snow. Typical north jog and many are happy.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Dunno. It would easily be the most frustrating thing I’ve had happen to me in a winter. I’ve seen 5” while both my locations have hit 15”+. I’d say March 2013 was worse but I wasn’t as invested in the tracking at that stage. Still a rough day I won’t forget. So to answer your question, probably.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Very kind of you. Just don't let it go too far south... if I end up in the wrong place at the wrong time again my meltdown is gonna be ugly.
  18. NorthArlington101
    It's starting to look like I'm going to do obs for a snow event at home Was really bummed when nothing happened over Winter Break. Scoring a 3"+ event at home while I can sit on my couch, with my dog, looking out at the streetlight would be very exciting.
  19. NorthArlington101
    GFS is real nice. Very EURO-esque. Can almost call it consensus! ninja’d x2
  20. NorthArlington101
    I have the luxury of deciding Friday night, so tbd. I’m leaning Arlington right now, figure that even if the jackpot shifts further south it’s more likely to last minute shift north anyways. Temps also get sketchier as you go south, so it could snow in CHO and not accumulate. I’m open to other suggestions though. I’m bad luck, so it would help you guys if I was convinced to stay down here.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Probably also worth noting the control is a near mirror image of the OP. Nice to see still.
  22. NorthArlington101
    1.0" of ice for Cville... ice skates to class.
  23. NorthArlington101
    EURO is big and wintry for the Tues/Weds deal. Thump to ice situation.
  24. NorthArlington101
  25. NorthArlington101
    Thumped. It's a solid run. Jackpot is still gonna be a little south of DCA.
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