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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    poor psu
  2. NorthArlington101
    bouta say, I might prefer the OG GFS. I'm just choosing to believe @psuhoffman and am running with the idea that the middle is a happy place to be.
  3. NorthArlington101
  4. NorthArlington101
  5. NorthArlington101
    I agree in principle, but when you can't find at least one winner among all the GEFS members and there are a decent handful of stinkers in the 12z EPS (and now more in the 18z), I tend to align (perhaps incorrectly) with the more "consistent" guidance. I realize the GFS/GEFS has been inconsistent in why it's bad for us, but it's always bad for us.
  6. NorthArlington101
    I'm not in love with these maps, but they clearly demonstrate that the look ain't getting better. 18z 12z 00z It ain't over by any means, but it's not good.
  7. NorthArlington101
    FWIW, no idea how the GEPS performs, but it also says no and most of its members have shown nada for its past four runs. Which is interesting since the Canadian had been somewhat in on this storm. It's 00z and yesterdays 12z and 00z would be outliers among its members.
  8. NorthArlington101
    That's true... but I'm inclined to believe the GFS/GEFS and the 20% of EPS members that equally suck. I'm going for pessimism here -- trying a new strategy.
  9. NorthArlington101
    GEFS has a signal but it's not great. Could argue its #rightwherewewant it though.
  10. NorthArlington101
    This speaks for itself, lol.
  11. NorthArlington101
    Hah, we clearly disagree. I’m gonna defer to you though. I’m sure you’re better at this.
  12. NorthArlington101
    Fair enough. It’s definitely chiller than the OP. But don’t think it was an improvement over 06z, which was actually a better mean than 00z handwringing over the Control aside.
  13. NorthArlington101
    For you, probably. DCA/Balt definitely lose 850s verbatim.
  14. NorthArlington101
    This has interested me for awhile. I assume it can’t be getting worse, so does that mean, as much as we rag on it for iffy updates, the GFS is getting better? to clarify, I know it’s getting better. But EURO has seemed notably less amazing this year while the GFS/CMC hasn’t got much credit.
  15. NorthArlington101
    850s are absolutely toasted though. Probably 32 and really rather than mix. Sad.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Mixy at 129.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Regardless... still gonna be a fair bit of snow this run. DCA pummeled at 126 quadruple ninja'd
  18. NorthArlington101
    Flurries. Didn't need to wake up at 4:00am to see some snow today. Whoops.
  19. NorthArlington101
    Looks like a step towards the CMC/EURO, at least off surface maps.
  20. NorthArlington101
    Looks like a rain/snow mix IMBY. 90% rain tho. Back to bed, heh.
  21. NorthArlington101
    I’m putting my hopes into that one band. Temps are suckier than I had assumed they’d be so it would probably take rates. Regardless, radar still looks more interesting than the mesos showed.
  22. NorthArlington101
    Radar looks like a dusting for most by morning. But if it’s snowing and nobody sees it - is it virga?
  23. NorthArlington101
    I’m putting a lot of effort into #flurrywatch but the radar is busier than any of the mesos predicted. No clue if it’s virga or not but it’s enough to entertain me.
  24. NorthArlington101
    temps are good the whole time. surface starts somewhat marginal but 850s never in doubt. high ratios literally never pan out but... doesn't look like garbage.
  25. NorthArlington101
    it's late night, there are only 19 of us on here, we can pass around the good stuff.
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