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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    My brief amateur take on the 12z GFS is that not much changed other than the timing -- was earlier and hence less impactful for Central VA. Precip actually took a slight jog north, looked kinda EURO-y but more south for most of the run until it flipped to a NC snowstorm at the end.
  2. NorthArlington101
    If nothing else this is a good way to learn about the strengths and weaknesses of the new FV3 GFS. Leans very suppressed/squashed compared to CMC/EURO/ICON at the moment.
  3. NorthArlington101
    Meh, a little bit. I recognize the unlikelihood and definitely wont be disappointed when this fades into oblivion but the window is there and the GEFS/EPS have had a decent amount of support for first flakes over the past couple of runs. We only get a dozen (maybe a couple dozen) or so shots at cold and precip a year so I’ll pay attention to a look in November if a global model has a storm in 6-7 days. Keeps me entertained.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Now that’s exactly where I want a storm. Loved that GFS run. Definitely some Central VA bias but a good step forward for all. Legit window here for everyone. Would like to see a slight shift south on the Euro or CMC. Changed the map because that old one was bugged out... 42” in NC lol.
  5. NorthArlington101
    I think this is the first winter with the fully upgraded FV3. We’ll find out, lol.
  6. NorthArlington101
    People forget that Central VA cashed out. Got a 1’ in Cville, I think even up to Fredericksburg got 5”. It’s definitely a mental game but I like seeing a suppressed look right now. Better than SNE model porn.
  7. NorthArlington101
    right where we want it
  8. NorthArlington101
    Not bad for Nov 9th. SNE made a thread already lol.
  9. NorthArlington101
    Still something there...
  10. NorthArlington101
    It’s about time! Let greater snow map spam begin.
  11. NorthArlington101
    I’m in Charlottesville for school now. Hopefully my signature is updated. I recognize my name is confusing.
  12. NorthArlington101
    Post storm wind gusts have been much more intense then actual storm, FWIW. Gotta be gusting 45-50.
  13. NorthArlington101
    18z GFS suggests flakes in the air Day 9. Actually like 13/20 GEFS members are somewhat interesting for this time of year, lol.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Super lame in Charlottesville. Hope you guys have more luck.
  15. NorthArlington101
    GEFS and EPS suggest a somewhat legitimate Day 9 threat window for sure. Something to casually keep an eye on.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Incoming for Charlottesville... let’s see if I survive the gusty winds.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Incoming for Charlottesville... let’s see if I survive the gusty winds.
  18. NorthArlington101
    Low level clouds are racing across the sky in Cville. I haven’t personally seen any sun. Probably gonna be stuck in class for the main event.
  19. NorthArlington101
    Low level clouds are racing across the sky in Cville. I haven’t personally seen any sun. Probably gonna be stuck in class for the main event.
  20. NorthArlington101
    Feel like this event deserves a thread.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Fantasy weather app snow season baby...
  22. NorthArlington101
    meh. If gusty storms and heavy rains with T&L pass over the fully outdoor lawn with a ton of kids, I don’t blame them for hypothetically cancelling. It’s not like this would just be raindrops
  23. NorthArlington101
    boo. Trick or Treating on the Lawn is one of the greatest traditions at UVA. Would suck to see weather impact it.
  24. NorthArlington101
    P015 on the 12z GEFS is a HECS, lol. I’m genuinely interested in Day 12-13 though. Enough persistence on the ensembles of snow somewhere on the EC for my attention.
  25. NorthArlington101
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