NorthArlington101

I was just about to quote my own post and say it does match up with CC. Rates probably assisting. Can’t be bad news I guess

Seeing a mixed precip marker on mPING near Fair Oaks. Doubtful, but that’s not even that far from the Beltway.

GFS from the top rope

Decided to stay up for the GFS and HDRPS for some reason. HDRPS rewarded me with that beautiful band it’s had over DC for the past 4 runs. If that sticks, and other models have it, it’ll deserve some kudos.

I’m pretty good at falling back to sleep, so I plan to open the window, check radar to see what the rates look like, and then check out til 2/3am if things aren’t close by 1. Latest HRRR says dc metro will wait til at least 2, so might be a fine time. 4am looks pretty good on this run.

Getting some sleep. Thinking I’ll wake up around 1:00am and see what’s up. Hope some of you will be around with me [emoji102]

Weenie map. May the odds be ever in our favor.

3k is having about the best possible run you'd want in and around the D.C. metro... can at least pretend going into these last few hours that there upside. The 10:1 has that sweeeeet 3-6" (10:1) band in the spot several models have had it.

12k NAM looks good still. Hopefully 3k follows. Back to obs. Down to 47 in NW Arlington near the FFX border.

We're just not gonna know until it happens. Only thing I've seen that's psuedo-consistent is a good band west of I-95. I'd actually take the slightly earlier flip on the EURO as a net positive and move on.

18z EURO Kuchera. Slight bump down just due to less impressive rates overall. Beltway actually flips a bit earlier than in previous runs.

Storm is saving up all the moisture for after we flip to snow. Or maybe it's saving it for the January blizzard.

HDRPS has the band in this area as well, again. Not throwing out 10" of snow this time, but good to see.

I wouldn't be mentioning it if it was a bad run, but 18z GFS is good. Has hints of that nearly parallel snow band west of I-95. On that note, I've decided to relocate back to the family's house in NW Arlington for this one. Thinking the 360ft of elevation may matter. Good luck everyone.

Time to accept we all need to move to the mountains. Or quit our jobs and build a big lake somewhere to the west.

I’m hearing that winter is canceled. Can anyone confirm?

I think most people should see snow. Exact totals will come down to banding. Don’t expect any “real” accumulation unless you are in this area’s best spots. Good luck.

So what you are saying is we can’t go wrong [emoji6]

Not to go weenie mode, but at this point I consider the run-to-run slight bumps between the GFS/EURO totally acceptable, basically similar results. They’ve both downtrended slightly which is worth noting, but I weigh it less at this point. I care about the HRRR/RAP/3k NAM now.

Still slowly correcting towards the 90th percentile

Our current “most likely” 10:1 outcome was the 90% on the GEFS ~24 hours ago… it’s still just correcting to the truth

Any good correlation between tornadoes in the south and snow in the Mid-Atlantic?

Let’s hope they just prefer the GFS because it looks nice at 18z

I love having as many models as possible show the snowiest outcome, so it’s annoying to see any model get worse. That said, the HDRPs has had some of the most stubborn and worst fails in my recollection. Anyone remember when it gave Baltimore like 36” of snow 2 days out, maybe that was in 2021?

pulling this to banter since I've had this convo too many times in the other chat - but yeah, I'm just excited to see some maybe mod-heavy snowfall. If anything sticks that's gravy - but I wouldn't be expecting that anywhere minus the favored spots. Hope I'm wrong. I kinda like the 10:1/Kuchera maps because I can know I've watched 2-3" of snowfall. That's more than fell from the sky all last year, even if none of it remains. I live in a concrete wasteland as it stands... maybe selfish but it's gonna get ugly and slushy and brown within hours unless it's a 6"+ storm with actual winter temps. There isn't any grass stickage here.