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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    What interests me a bit in the GEFS is a shift in our direction for the storm on the 28th. Hail Mary for sure, but a handful of interesting members.
  2. NorthArlington101
    I'm a big believer in the idea that winters will be more boom or bust going forward. Don't think it'll be close to a 50/50 split of boom/bust, maybe closer to 20/80, but enough killer years could end up causing a positive trend even if the intersnowy years suck.
  3. NorthArlington101
    Don't look at the 12z EURO if Boston snowfalls rub you the wrong way. They get slammed on the 28th.
  4. NorthArlington101
    WxBell ratios half this but beggars can’t be choosers and I’m the beggiest of the beggars
  5. NorthArlington101
    UKIE has some snow Saturday too
  6. NorthArlington101
    Temps don't look that hot and its during daylight hours, think the overnight "storm" in Feb. would end up being the winner for a good chunk of folks still. But point taken given how little we've seen
  7. NorthArlington101
    Storm impacting Baltimore is SVR warned, for some reason.
  8. NorthArlington101
    Would be the second best event of the season
  9. NorthArlington101
    I mean verbatim isn’t that a foot into the city? If we’re using snow maps let’s have fun
  10. NorthArlington101
    (Un?)fortunately the EPS looks viable to me for wintery precip past Day 9 or so. March is the new February
  11. NorthArlington101
    I’d like a 100mi shift to the SE if possible
  12. NorthArlington101
    Almost certainly… though it’s impossible to observe the counterfactual, so who knows[emoji6]
  13. NorthArlington101
    It’s a little interesting. I’m in Fishersville, but don’t think I can convince my girlfriend to take a sick day Monday (in-person work for her) relying on the GFS’s antics. Would need something else to come aboard
  14. NorthArlington101
    Atlanta has a better shot at an inch than most of us
  15. NorthArlington101
    Congrats to Georgia
  16. NorthArlington101
    Big news for Georgia
  17. NorthArlington101
    00z NAM is kind of fun. If it can’t snow here I’d be okay with it snowing in Georgia.
  18. NorthArlington101
    largely noise - highlights are probably more snow SWVA, more snow central VA/along I-81, less members that are bringing snow further north out of our subforum. probability maps for just an 1" (hey, low bar) show non-zero improvement from 06z. Generally 0-10% better
  19. NorthArlington101
    EPS matches the OP pretty darn close thru 84 - maybe 20 miles more north w/ the vort. Scanning back and forth the vort pass is decidedly stronger than previous runs but more keeps ticking south. Sigh
  20. NorthArlington101
    weenie map
  21. NorthArlington101
    it actually gets it done for western folks at 114 - 850s cooperate under the deform and surface is 34-35
  22. NorthArlington101
    It's a "more interesting" run even if it doesn't do the job, I guess. Good run for SWVA
  23. NorthArlington101
    CMC does the same thing - seems sorta clear this is our short term problem. Long-term problem is everything else wrong with the setup, but there has to be some north shift or it is truly DOA.
  24. NorthArlington101
    See you for the EURO
  25. NorthArlington101
    mostly agree - this run verbatim is spitting out some snow in SC (and not just the mountains) - think there is a path to victory with perfection and a better placed vort pass. Just way too far south
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