NorthArlington101

On mobile so image sharing sucks but 12z EPS is clearly drier as well - looks about the same otherwise, extends push of accumulating snow maybe a bit further south.

EURO looks like it’ll hold. Almost looks like the seasonal SE MD/CVA jackpot might show this run too.

Unrelated -- FV3 Hi-Res showing that nice squall signature on the back.

I'm wondering if it's doing that thing @high risk(I believe) mentioned where conditions *might* briefly support sleet for like 5 minutes as it transitions to snow but then the model output renders it sleeting for the whole 3hr period or so.

So... exactly what I said? I'm happy to take the tradeoff of Winchester losing 3" of snow if it means the rest of us see more, but I totally understand why you wouldn't be.

This is an interesting tweet -- squalls would obviously be fun.

3k NAM has it snowing for a few hours while DCA is down into the upper 20s. That'll get us a wintry scene for a little bit, at least.

Raw snow accumulation for most of the area. 12z 06z

12k NAM is an improvement. Cautiously optimistic given that we are seeing positive trends across guidance.

Will didn't even share the weeniest map. For shame. Enjoy this one.

Buy the event or not, when the EPS is slowly trending better run after run, that's enough to suggest something might be happening, imo.

it was too much to ask for, it’s clearly worse than 00z. snow is snow, though!

CMC is also much improved — not crazy, but very different than previous runs and a step in the right direction. Would be cool to go 3/3 tonight.

00z GFS takes a step in the right direction on an event just about 4 days out and silence? Looks like it’s time for spring

Little surprised there is so little discussion with the Euro showing this:

Sort of surprised that Short Pump isn’t under a warning.

GFS shoved a lot of its chips in… To be less vague, it’s an improvement.

Haha - it would be fun on the 3k/12k for sure. For once the ground temps might actually be problematic but the rates would overcome a lot. It’d be memorable if true. 3k is ~5” in 3hrs for metro proper.

12k NAM holds serve - better for the metro actually.

Congrats on the great swimming! I wouldn't worry too much about nationals in your first year -- I considered myself lucky to make that meet by my senior year of high school! On the nerves front, I think developing a routine is pretty important. Whether that is walking up listening to music, doing the crazy slap thing, doing the same stretches behind the block, routinizing the swim and making yourself think it's like any other race might be helpful. Watching Torri Huske swim when I swam with her, she did the same thing every time, she was in her zone, doing her things. I definitely got nervous before big swims (especially when my time to get a nats cut was running out) but one of the things I loved about swimming was you pretty much just hop in the water and push yourself as hard as possible (with some race strategy). Not too much to stress over -- you should hop in, black out, swim hard, and see what the result is. Good luck!

With things looking dire, I feel pretty good about my performance again this year. Would've liked the two-peat but better to lose by going low then by going high!

I would’ve gone for the late 1910s - has the perfect pandemic/war combo. Would rather avoid the Great Depression period for a bit, lol.

CHO apparently hit 80. Love it.