NorthArlington101

it's all about getting HRDPS'd these days. but I'd count the 6" the NAM gives most of us as being NAM'd anyway

the 3k backs up the 12k... when do we start buying into a 2-4"+ storm for everyone (outside SE MD/DE)

12k NAM is more delayed than other models on the changeover and it *looked* like the heaviest stuff was headed but it slams us regardless. It actually moistened up a ton to the south... 1.5" inches of precip in 6 hours around Williamsburg. Very juicy.

The gusts are the truly nuts part. When the storm is really going off (about ~3" 10:1 in 2hrs for most of us), it's gusting 35-45mph for most of the area. Should be an exciting few hours.

All of it -- looks like a snow sounding. DCA should be all snow by just a hair after 8, verbatim, unless I'm missing a sneaky warm layer.

Ripping at 9am - temps below zero along and east of I-95.

Decent odds of a 3" snowstorm (10:1, at least) for much of the subforum, per the EPS.

Made the GIF a little early - here's the final 10:1 map.

It's slightly less impressive but still a great run.

There were many infuriating parts of last nights game, but our offensive rebounding was terrible. Caffaro (who I have a personal dislike for after sharing classes with, so I'm biased) was largely just a body in the paint. He lacked any aggressiveness and was largely useless defensively as well. Shedrick is so much better but he'll foul out in 10 minutes if he's left in the game.

WWA's have to be coming for the close burbs/DC -- somewhat surprised they aren't out yet.

Just for fun:

GFS is slower with the transition to snow and has more sleet than the models that are really slamming us. Good news is I trust the GFS the least to get those details right.

Hi-Res FV3 has had it's best run of the storm. If we are saying that the snow depth maps are bunk (thanks @psuhoffmanfor the permission to do that) then we gotta start thinking about 1-2" as the floor. Ceiling looks increasingly like WSW criteria.

I'm surprised we cared enough about football to throw batteries at you, honestly. I am definitely excited about next year, especially since we keep the best pieces from this year... once Reece Beekman learns how to shoot, it's over for the ACC. I'm also cautiously optimistic about our football team and our Heisman-quality QB. If we can get some semblance of an offensive line, our schedule looks pretty easy.

UVA utterly collapsed. What a tease it was when this team beat and then held close with Duke. Best of luck to the Hokies, I really don't hate ya'll unless you are playing us. Need more Virginia representation in March Madness this year anyway.

3k NAM with ~4 hours of 1"+ rates at DCA with 30-40mph wind gusts... really could be a fun one. I'd think the depth map is an underestimate.

EURO/HRRR have the changeover at about 8:00am.

This is the perfect kind of storm though -- one to two days of cold and snow before warmth returns. Check out this panel. How can you turn this down!

06z EURO steady from overnight, puts the heaviest snow over the metro. Image order is Kuchera/10:1/Snow Depth

Similar language even in the close burbs… man, if we can pull off a really fun windy storm, I’d have to boost my winter grade up a whole letter. “Rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet before noon, then snow, possibly mixed with sleet between noon and 3pm, then snow likely after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 44. Breezy, with a northwest wind 13 to 18 mph increasing to 19 to 24 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.”

take your pick of snow map -- I know which I'd prefer but not scoffing at the widespread 2-3"