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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    If it's coming down at 4" an hour, it'll stick more than that too, honestly. The thing is it won't. NAM overampedness aside, both seem to pop that follow-up low in a good spot to keep things going after the temps crash to around freezing and the upper levels cooperate. That's the key for anything more than the T-1" of "snow" (outside our best spots) that all the other models are willing to say could happen, I think.
  2. NorthArlington101
    If I remember the scene right... it needs to be properly notarized, not just signed!
  3. NorthArlington101
  4. NorthArlington101
    Deathbanded
  5. NorthArlington101
    Kuchera
  6. NorthArlington101
    At hr54, NAM is beating down the I-81 corridor. Widespread 3-5” verbatim
  7. NorthArlington101
    On mobile, so apologies if quality is lower.
  8. NorthArlington101
    I thought you were in it for the chase anyway… take 1-2” of digital snow and run
  9. NorthArlington101
    18z EURO seemed to hold.
  10. NorthArlington101
    GFS isn't joining the NAM party. We'll try again at 0z!
  11. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, I've noticed that its not exactly frigid. We're relying on timing and rates if anyone wants to actually measure something, especially outside our favored spots. I'd be down to see 2-3 hours of moderate snow with a slushy coating on the grass regardless though. Been a long time.
  12. NorthArlington101
    Good to know that I'm not crazy. Looking at it almost made me think we could back into something here... too bad its the NAM at 60.
  13. NorthArlington101
    3k is in. What was exciting to me was seeing better offshore development from the LP... I'm not dumb enough to think there is any chance this goes crazy, but I have to imagine a redeveloping low in our primo spot cannot hurt? I'd assume that helps to keep precip around after the cold pushes in. Also doesn't hurt that it flips to snow faster on the 3k
  14. NorthArlington101
    Uhh.. happy hour NAM doing something exciting
  15. NorthArlington101
    FWIW - EPS is a tick up. 50th Percentile Standard Mean
  16. NorthArlington101
    Temps are never good at the surface, to be clear. 850s are good - imagine everything but the surface would support scenic snow for folks who want to set their alarms for 3-4am.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Basically identical to 06z.
  18. NorthArlington101
    EURO is holding serve with a flip to flakes at the end.
  19. NorthArlington101
    I always go by best ABV for my buck, but I'm thrifty.
  20. NorthArlington101
    12z GFS. Precip cuts off faster/isn't as intense on the backside as the NAM.
  21. NorthArlington101
    I've been straying away from looking at the means of the ensembles as they are super easily skewed. WxBell as a new tool as of this year (I think?) that displays the 10th/25th/50th/75th/90th percentile of snow accums for an event based on the ens. It's not as sexy as the ens mean, but this is first flakes for most and a "legit" first event out west. And it's improving run-over-run. EURO ens not as generous, fwiw.
  22. NorthArlington101
  23. NorthArlington101
    Yeah that’s right — probably a little less, but the mean is basically useless since that one member drops a foot. This the 50th percentile. Prob more accurate sadly.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Quite the spread lol. Was hoping the individual members had like a consensus on a “T-2” event rather than a 0”-2’. Don’t think those ever work out.
  25. NorthArlington101
    GEFS also coming in improved… maybe we’ll wake up to an interesting EURO for favored zones?
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