NorthArlington101
-
Posts
10,993 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by NorthArlington101
-
This is a nuts 24 hour mean for this range… jeez.
-
Just to get it on the record - what do you actually think happens? Always curious what you’re thinking
-
Sun is still definitely making its way through the cloud deck in Arlington, but seems to have thickened up — 37/21. If things were holding off a little longer tonight I’d chase this in Staunton for the hell of it. By the time the Survivor finale ends though (10pm) I don’t think I’d want to cross the Blue Ridge!
-
Not sure I buy it personally - temps aren’t really any colder than precious runs + heavier precip wouldn’t be particularly helpful in accretion.
-
Beet juice!
-
00z NAM not really coming in colder but the cold looks to stay entrenched a bit longer, fwiw.
-
Pretty close. One or two more nudges and maybe we could start talking about a quick thump? Maybe we can get our first NAMming of the year in a few minutes. Also - thanks for the reminder on EURO soundings on TTT. Crazy that data is free now.
-
Marginal event so every bit matters -- 18z EPS keeps nearly everyone 1-2F colder at the surface during the event timeframe. 850s are 1-2C colder -- which is a pretty big jump. Can't see 925s unfortunately.
-
We are also in LWX "first guess" range. Maybe a bit snowier than expected... considering expectations are for near-nil.
-
Verbatim, 18z EURO is nasty for the mountains and favored spots but doesn't get much into the metro. Unlike past runs, though, it transitions NMD to snow for a time -- basically jumped the trace line ~50m to the south.
-
It doesn’t take much looking at the soundings to know that map is unfortunately off base, but it’s a fairly impactful (icy) run for everyone outside of the cities/SE. It’s not horrifically far off at the mids and pretty close at the surface tho - wouldn’t take too much trending to get the ice impacts further East, as others have already said.
-
-
Anecdotally, the Canadian hi-res stuff tends to run cold and overdo precip. That said, I’m considering a pivot off from my plans to go to Deep Creek for snow (looking less likely) to head to Staunton if it looks like a serious ice storm. Supposed to head that way Friday night anyway but might arrive a day or two earlier to scout out a real ice storm, if it comes to pass.
-
Canadian ENS say it’ll be quite slick. Few flip to snow but the highlight is this panel.
-
Might’ve oversold this but we are substantially more in the game than a few runs ago. Pretty much every ensemble member at least starts as something wintry, which is a big step up from just a few runs ago.
-
Unsurprisingly, the GEFS are going to follow the OP. Some nice looking (snowier) members in the mix, can share once it runs through.
-
If it comes to it, I'll be shooting you a DM for ideas. I'm not too picky, but between my own bad decisions/poor vacation timing I haven't seen more than 8" of snow at once since 2016... I'm pretty sure.
-
Winter 2022-2023 Digital Snow Thread
NorthArlington101 replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
-
If the EURO depiction actually verified... I'd do it. Not how I intended to use the vacation fund, but a good 2' of snow in December would be pretty nice.
-
That EURO run looks like get a cabin in Deep Creek and enjoy. Been told my work is fully remote till at least the holidays so… very tempting.
-
Someone smarter than me can correct me if I’m wrong, but what I feel I’ve anecdotally noticed is that these new rounds of updates — which do presumably make the models better — have left people still trying to figure out their biases. As these upgrades get more and more regular, it’s harder and harder to observe a model’s strengths and faults. That’s my guess as to why things seem jumpy and no model seems to be killing it, but who knows. Just a theory.
-
Winter 2022-2023 Digital Snow Thread
NorthArlington101 replied to SnowenOutThere's topic in Mid Atlantic
Good news -- this falls over the course of 3 days. Bad news -- this falls over the course of 3 days. -
CMC and it’s ens are also intriguing Sun/Mon for western zones especially. As someone who enjoys the medium/short range stuff even when it’s a long shot, it’s been a decent tracking night… need something new now that Friday night continues to evaporate
-
Been noticing the ensembles tick up a few tenths (weak, I know) during that period — thanks for sharing.
-
GFS trended back toward the event existing. Snow TV for some MD folks at least. Hi-Res stuff still says *poof*.
