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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
NorthArlington101 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I've hopped in those replies, my personal take would be either to use and educate the public better on Severe Weather Statements or change the definition to 45mph+ (give or take) wind gusts. I don't see why winter wx can have a different scale for severe criteria but severe couldn't - though maybe it already does and I'm undereducated on the issue. -
2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
NorthArlington101 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I’m mixed on Cappucci but agree with the general argument/data here. Realize we’ve had this discussion before but I think the trend lines comparing LWX and (potentially cherry-picked, in all fairness) other offices is interesting -
Definitely didn’t get that sunset IMBY. Consider me jealous for the second time today.
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
NorthArlington101 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Radar really had me thinking this would be a memorable summer storm. Feel like I got the rug pulled out under me -
2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
NorthArlington101 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
The advertised 40-50mph winds on radar did not reach MBY. Stormy but don’t think the leaves ever felt in danger -
Ah, I made the “make a bad assumption off a cursory glance” and assumed that the map was the risk in general rather than the current risk. Thanks for the assist
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Surprised my area is the "easiest" to flood - just not many streams around here that tend to cause issues. I guess that isn't exactly what this map is getting at, but there are only a few areas in N Arlington that I think of as particularly flood-prone.
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Might’ve been some decent backyard flooding last night imby - can’t figure out what else would’ve took down the backyard fence.
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Looks like that cell will end up dropping a fairly widespread 3-5”… pretty impressive stuff
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Charlottesville is getting shellacked. Already 1-2” around there.
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This has been an interesting weather drought, at the very least.
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
NorthArlington101 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
NorthArlington101 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
First batch is optimistic... I like it. -
I'm working on a written recap of the 2012 Derecho for AccuWeather (yes, I know, hold your groans) -- if anyone wants to briefly speak/email with me about their personal recollections of the storm, reply to this or send me a DM. Would be cool to get a comment or two from you folks.
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Been pouring the last few hours - pretty wicked stuff.
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
NorthArlington101 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Saw some light flooding pictures from friends who are still in the area. -
2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
NorthArlington101 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
DC might get some relief with this next wave - loud thunder again in Arlington. -
Speaking of swimming, I've got some doubts my team get's its B-meet off tonight. Always storms when we swim this team and this afternoon looks like it won't be the exception. Unrelated to swimming, my semi-permanent return to this area is set in stone -- will be living in Clarendon for at least the next year or so. In retrospect looking at the economy, probably should have saved some money living at home, but I'll likely have more fun with my roommate for a bit before checking out my finances after a year and seeing if things are sustainable. At least I can pop in at home for the 'rents for the snowstorms where every mile away from I-95 matters.
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Are you insulting my pool! It deserves it... not a great place for a competitive meet. @SnowenOutTherehas gotten quite fast, thankfully our team has a really strong talent in the age group. Our boys managed to hold him off, but it was a close meet, lots of fun.
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
NorthArlington101 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I agree in principle - what I guess I’d then suggest is that Severe Thunderstorm Warnings scale like Winter Storm Warnings/Advisory’s based on the relative severity/hazards posed. If a 40mph storm is severe and dangerous in this area, cool, just don’t lie in the warning text. I suppose laypeople hardly read the text though anyway. -
2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
NorthArlington101 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
The only NWS critique I’d really strongly agree with is the over-warning of thunderstorms locally. Every other storm I get here is “severe,” but maybe one storm a year meets that criteria. I care about the weather and even I no longer take those warnings seriously. -
2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
NorthArlington101 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
I think they are saying a couple things... Radar dead zone. Tough to see what's going on. This for me isn't a reason not to issue a warning when a storm looks this threatening. I think they are referring to sidelobe contamination when they are talking about lack of a couplet on DBZ. Not sure I agree with that qualm either, storm has repeatedly shown a hook and again, the radar isn't super reliable. And we've got photos of wall clouds on Twitter... The SBCIN stuff is out of my comfort zone to even begin to talk about but this is what it means apparently: SBLI (Surface Based Lifted Index & Convective Inhibition) is the Lifted Index at 500-mb, based on the surface parcel, and the convective inhibition for the same parcel. These fields are meant to identify areas of surface-based CAPE and minimal convective inhibition, which suggests some threat for surface-based thunderstorms. -
2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
NorthArlington101 replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic