BoulderWX

I was wrong. Heavy sleet and snow right now

Back to almost all snow in Morristown. With you on the sledding. That’s the only metric I care about.

Confirming the same in Morristown. All sleet at the moment

First flakes and ice pellets started in Morristown

nothing in Morristown despite good radar returns.

Sleet is fine. But hoping nobody gets into a freezing rain situation.

Nothing at MMU yet but getting under heavier returns so hopefully breaks through.

Where are you located? I want it to be right too lol

Great map and explanation; aligned with this

Keeps reducing to talks to our area but I’ll gladly take the 4.5” verbatim

My Holly stays the course..was thinking they’d go 3-6 in their latest pacemaker URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 NJZ001-008-270900- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-251227T1500Z/ Sussex-Morris- Including the cities of Morristown and Newton 125 PM EST Fri Dec 26 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 8 inches. Local amounts up to 10 inches possible. * WHERE...Morris and Sussex Counties. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Saturday.

Might as well hold off on any more cave talk since we will have a clear answer in about 14 hours 26/3 - Mostly Cloudy

For sure. Went from 0.8 QPF to 0.4 in two HRRR Runs. as you said it will bounce around but it will be a relatively thin band of 0.8-1.0QPF IMO with a more general 0.4-0.6 for most. Mesos have much spottier precip compared to globals as I said yesterday I’ve always been more concerned about QPF than I am about too much mixing 21/7

Oh it’s in the mix of guidance, I use all of it though, not just one model which the OP does all the time. I know I’m gonna get mixing, that’s for sure - it’s just how much and I think the NAM is still clearly playing catch up

In all fairness the NAM has handled the storm terribly. I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on that. I have no dog in this fight as I’m not in NYC but I think they do very well (5+) with this setup.

This is going to be a brutal borderline to ride. I wouldn’t be surprised with 2 or 6” and were less than twelve hours out.

It was great for NYC - like 8-10 @10:1

Im Right there with you. My official call is 3.7” with a lot of sleet 19/7

12Z HRRR looks really nice for NYC metro area - and yes I know it’s the long range and the HRRR lol

17 degrees

GFS looks to Hold serve at 00z

ICON bumps north a bit - not a huge jump but noticeable

Always throw out a guess for each storm - thinking 3.7” and a decent amount of sleet. (Morristown) 27 degrees

NAM is the only model where I’d be frustrated were it to occur but the I can’t rule it out. NYC, north and east look best ATM as well as LHV

Agreed 100%