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BoulderWX

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Everything posted by BoulderWX

  1. BoulderWX
    …and we’re off LOL Seriously though, I think we start getting the general picture within the next 24 hours, and as always specifics will be nailed down in the final 24…
  2. BoulderWX
    Light snow in Morris County right now
  3. BoulderWX
    Between snow and especially ice coverage in the Deep South and up the EC, the 12z CMC is one of the crazier D10 solutions I’ve seen.
  4. BoulderWX
    06z update: ICON and GFS are both dry with Sunday/monday wave.
  5. BoulderWX
    Im in chapel hill NC next week, I don’t hate that run lol. Clearly joking, I don’t expect anything even close…
  6. BoulderWX
    Nice write up and very much agree. I’ve been on the ‘skirting’ train for this one. The last two GFS run depict what I’m thinking to some extent. A general 1-2” with the potential for up to 4” along the coast. A few changes to the synoptic pattern could cause this to yield more (or whiff to the south completely), but I do think we see some flakes Saturday.
  7. BoulderWX
    Just another run. Nothing to deduce aside from that it has a storm on the EC. GFS has been relatively consistent *with the idea* for the past 2-3 days but consistency doesn’t equate to accuracy as we all know and even still, we’ve seen even the most aggressive model for snow blank on several runs. If we still have players on the field Wednesday then we can start dissecting run to run. Until then, enjoy the possibility.
  8. BoulderWX
    111 is pivotal on this run. Up the coast or slide out to sea along Carolina coast
  9. BoulderWX
    Sure does. Very much in line with my thoughts on a more moderate system. Thinking ceiling is a 3-6” event but hopefully most would be happy with that.
  10. BoulderWX
    If you’re looking for A GFS like solution you’re setting yourself up for disappointment not only in outcome, but with every model run between now and the weekend. If you’re good with a 3-6 or 4-8 storm, you can root for a CMC like depiction which is way more realistic than the GFS and seems like a fair middle ground as of now in this synoptic setup.
  11. BoulderWX
    Yup, same here to your east in Morristown. Should pick up that inch that many of the short range models were advertising. Nice to have things whitened up to start the week.
  12. BoulderWX
    ^17 hours ago when the mood was quite different.
  13. BoulderWX
    986 exiting Delmarva @ 159 on GFS. ahhh those were the days lol. ends up hugging the coast/staying just inland in this morning’s version of whack a mole. Just another solution at this point but good to see a storm showing up consistently on models
  14. BoulderWX
    The next week on this forum would make an incredible case study in psychology. Should be *fun* to watch.
  15. BoulderWX
    Best clown map of the season! Will only change 28 times between now and next Saturday
  16. BoulderWX
    Need to also realize that on the northern fringes there is going to be a lot of subsidence and dry air to overcome so would keep expectations in check riding the northern edge.
  17. BoulderWX
    Typical run to run noise but same idea.
  18. BoulderWX
    EURO LOL! this board is gonna need a Valium
  19. BoulderWX
    Yup - as often happens, we see the overcorrection north on the models for a couple of suites only to settle somewhere in the middle of the guidance or in this case the southern end of it.
  20. BoulderWX
    Looking at the icon at 78 and you would think for sure a good storm is coming. Confluence just eats it up. Southern NJ does really well in set tups like these. edit: and this time it wasn’t all eaten lol. Just another solution at this point.
  21. BoulderWX
    I’m not currently on board with ICON depiction but it begins to show us our envelope. Icon probably the best case scenario for this sub forum. Worst case is obviously being completely dry. verbatim, icon is a nice 3-6 event for most
  22. BoulderWX
    No point in model watching for next 36 hours - happy new years, all! also this (ducks):
  23. BoulderWX
    Would suck not get something in the next 15 days in this pattern, but stranger things have happened. Would honestly be happy with a 3-6 type event, I think the confluence is too much for anything larger at this point.
  24. BoulderWX
    Yeah, UKIE would make everyone pretty happy. Should start to have a better idea this weekend.
  25. BoulderWX
    Snow in SC/GA/NC at 225. Don’t see that too often
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