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BoulderWX

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Everything posted by BoulderWX

  1. BoulderWX
    I think this would be on the extreme end of guidance but mixing to some degree looks likely along the coast and potentially further inland. Lots of time for further adjustments either way.
  2. BoulderWX
    ICON jackpots New England - what a shift verbatim.
  3. BoulderWX
    ICON showing a lot more ice this run - something to watch for sure.
  4. BoulderWX
    Anyone able to post QPF
  5. BoulderWX
    TWC now has NYC on the northern edge of their 12-18 band FWIW.
  6. BoulderWX
    an option thats on the table, but I'll take the risk for more QPF; would still be 6-10" before mixing for most of the area.
  7. BoulderWX
    GFS is a long duration dream
  8. BoulderWX
    I've tried... people like the pretty maps!
  9. BoulderWX
    7-10" isnt anything to sneeze at - I think they'd be thrilled, I would be
  10. BoulderWX
    Oh I agree. I’m totally fine with a little Mix. Give me the increased QPF and I’ll gamble with the mix line
  11. BoulderWX
    Hahah that’s what I was saying yesterday. Everyone was trying to calculate ratios and pin point certain things that just can’t be done at this time. Loved last nights runs, we still have some wiggle room in all directions to achieve a big storm - here’s hoping.
  12. BoulderWX
    Great runs overall. Trying to keep expectations low since we’ve already seen some big changes over the last couple of days. Some really nice signs last night but proceeding with caution
  13. BoulderWX
    Feel free to apply whatever ratio you think - I’m not debating anyone - just going with what has worked well for me over the last 20 years. many posters have given detailed explanations about several other factors that go into ratios, temperature is only one component.
  14. BoulderWX
    100% agree - not even worth worrying about. I’m just looking at QPF - easier for forecasting and consistency.
  15. BoulderWX
    .75 with favorable ratios would be great. I’m not buying the kuchera maps showing over 20:1 ratios but to each their own!
  16. BoulderWX
    Can you post the non kuchera version. Or just QPF?
  17. BoulderWX
    Waiting until then as well - if models stay consistent I’m definitely heading down south!
  18. BoulderWX
    correct, thus me saying big improvement?
  19. BoulderWX
    Big improvement from 12z but does skirt east before the benchmark; nice run though
  20. BoulderWX
    IF GFS is right, I'm going to see my family in NC - would be a once in a lifetime snowstorm for them verbatim
  21. BoulderWX
    I think you mean 18z an 6z (18z up next) and there’s much debate on how accurate that is. But your point about overreactions is valid lol
  22. BoulderWX
    You asked a question. Many people replied with detailed answers. At this point just go with what you think best. No need to debate it. Most of us agree it’s best to wait to figure details like snow ratio out. If you don’t want to, then just multiply what you think ratios will be X Qpf output and have a field day with it
  23. BoulderWX
    I think it's a great run and I agree ratios will be higher than 10:1 but as someone else mentioned earlier, there's more than just temps needed to ensure high ratios. I highly caution people not to ever assume more than 12:1.
  24. BoulderWX
    The thing im most excited about in terms of potential is the duration. I expect a lot of changes between now and Sunday, but if we could have it snow for even half of that time, I'd be happy - don't even care how much we get if we have snow falling for that long
  25. BoulderWX
    CMC unloading a major ice storm across NC and parts of the south - lets see if she makes the turn up the coast. edit: she definitely looks to make the turn - moderate snow into the area at 120; skirting east at 126 - mod snow still in the area
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