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BoulderWX

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Everything posted by BoulderWX

  1. Really hoping this is the case because as of yesterday it looked like a worst case scenario for both areas. Way too early to tell but if they can remain on the west side, that would be a saving grace. Regardless, I think it’s way more than a nuisance either way, but will be *less* devastating if the can remain on the western side.
  2. Glad to see this didn’t explode overnight but seems like it’s getting its act together this AM. prayers and best wishes for all in its path. Will be a fascinating day of tracking.
  3. Can this be close to accurate?! A few local spots of 10” of rainfall based on radar estimates. I know these can be off, but they weee very accurate for the coastal areas of North Carolina with the TS a couple weeks ago.
  4. Praying we continue to see these drops in anticipated max winds and RI, but sadly a storm of this size coming in at this trajectory is going to cause major problems whether it’s a 2/3 or 4.
  5. Yup, horrible look for TLH with the center projected to pass just to the east.
  6. Up to 70mph - we should have Hurricane Helene by the 11am advisory
  7. Honestly, this is on the Mods at this point. It’s one thing to let a few random posts go, but to allow him to continue posting, degrades any sense of meteorological posts. It’s getting embarrassing for the forum at large.
  8. Unfortunately for coastal areas, the high radar estimates are being confirmed on the ground
  9. Agree but rainfall exceeding expectations along the NC coast. Radar estimates already showing 6-11”
  10. Fair enough, there was also no data point directly before landfall so it was a bit of a gray area but your point is taken. Most of what I have seen is a forecast of cat 1 at landfall which I agree with. Certainly possible it hits cat 2 at some point in its journey but inhibiting factors as it approaches land has always capped upward potential.
  11. Yeah… I’m wondering the same since I got weenied for essentially posting facts (path shifted east and it’s 65mph currently), and then saying it looks on track to hit as a cat 1 lol. Would love to know what he took issue with.
  12. Official forecast shifts east and continues to be progged as a Cat 1 at landfall. Everything seems to be on track intensity wise. 65 mph at last update
  13. Almost all prognostications have kept this a cat 1, around 85mph. I still think it has a good shot of becoming a hurricane which would be in line with the expectation. Could be wrong, but if it reaches hurricane status it’s not a bust. just because some people speculate, doesn’t mean that’s what the official forecast was. And we all know model guidance varies widely with every storm. Most topped it out as a cat 2 and I didn’t see one official forecast going to cat 2. Highest was 100, which may end up too high, but again, not by much.
  14. Eyewall looks to be forming with some lightning strikes around the center. May not matter downstream but seems to be ahead of schedule.
  15. Circulation becoming more evident on Brownsville Radar. I think she tops out around 90mph before weakening before landfall due to some pretty strong shear
  16. Watching a great lightning storm on my porch with my son who just said “I love weather”. That’s what it’s all about.
  17. I find it best to ignore people who make generalized statements like that. Based off of nothing but emotions. Especially when one or two storms can make a winter for this region. as for right now, storms passing just south of me in morris county but hear the thunder and see the lightning
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