BoulderWX

Where is here? Still nothing in Morristown despite decent radar returns

Where are you located?

Luckily it’s sleet and not freezing rain, but yeah not fun.

Mt Holly finally coming around. Slashed totals big time which is the right call - just took a while.

Wow, one can say it’s less exciting and still track. They’re not mutually exclusive. I know you’re overly sensitive MJO but maybe relax a bit.

This is becoming less exciting lol

RRFS was definitely worse

Yup. Well this has been a fun 18z suite

NAM, RRFS, NAM 3K, EURO are all single digit snowfalls for the nyc metro. It’s not just the NAM, though NAM is the least snowy of the bunch

Compare totals from 18z to 12z - this was a huge step back in accumulation. Went from 15 to 9 IMBY as an example for the drop. That’s now NAM, 3k, and RRFS with pronounced warm nose. Not a good sign

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 NJZ008>010-012>015-020-026-PAZ060-103-105-106-241100- /O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.260125T0600Z-260126T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/ Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Berks-Western Montgomery- Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks- Including the cities of New Brunswick, Long Beach Island, Perkasie, Reading, Trenton, Pottstown, Somerville, Sandy Hook, Collegeville, Flemington, Freehold, Jackson, Morrisville, Doylestown, Morristown, and Chalfont 1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 15 inches and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch.

First Call - MMU: 7-11; sleet - CPK: 6-10; sleet - SPARTA: 12-16; all snow - White Plains: 10 - 14; mostly if not all snow

hopefully it flips back or that will be a very long period of sleet - lots of QPF though

HRW look great at 12Z: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026012312&fh=60&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

Much better run - still going to be a huge drop off somewhere around central NJ

NAM will be a much better initial thump before sleet - a lot more QPF overall too

hi neighbor - I think we deal with a decent amount of mixing but still think we can see 8-10 before the change over; a couple extra hours of snow vs sleet will determine if we hit double digits IMO

NAM should give pause. I hate the model but I think it’s very good at detecting warm noses.

The NWS actually added an inch to my WSW - 12-17. Not sure what they’re looking at.

Yeah don’t like the look at all

That’s not even close to accurate so no need to debate with you

Yes I know I just think it’s wildly high based on guidance. I have no doubt the they’ll adjust downward by tomorrow.

That shows what?

No idea how mt Holly is coming up with widespread 12-18. This is going to be a great storm but those numbers state wide are insane.

Yeah another step back. Been consistent in lowering totals. But again 6-10 is still a nice storm.