BoulderWX
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Still going to be a nice hit for the areas I keep highlighting. Just not it’s 00z run which is to be expected that there will be run to run variances.
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CMC certainly won’t be its 00z hit. Looks flatter through 114.
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Yeah, that would be tough lol. At this point just glad there continues to be a signal for a big storm
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Not the full evolution, but the end result is very similar to what I was just saying. A good shot of a MECS storm forum wide with best snows being along the NJ coast, NYC and points East. should be a fun couple of days of tracking.
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Read what I just posted, I think the forum has a really good shot at a MECS, but not hopping on board the epic solution the Icon showed (30+ forum wide).
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I forget what storm it was, maybe BDB where I was too far west and got close to 10” while 20 miles east got at least double that. My *initial* feeling is similar to that where NYC and points east do best and this would also align if you take a compromise the current guidance. I think the entire forum has a shot at our biggest storm of the year and a good potential for a MECS for many, just need to see how it unfolds. We’re 5+ days out so things can/will obviously change, just some initial thoughts.
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I don’t think anything close to that will verify because that’s literally the perfect track and combination of factors, but that was one of the best fantasy runs in a 5.5 day window I’ve seen in a while. And I say fantasy not to discredit the possibility of a major storm, but as in that would be the perfect run for all of us.
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LOL ICON - all of NJ, NYC, and almost all of LI get thirty on kuchera maps that I can’t post for some reason. Weenie run for sure
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Will use 00z suite and 12z suites to monitor snowfall outputs for Morristown (MMU) posterity and post mortem. Using 10:1 for all for consistency. Yes I realize amounts could be higher/lower due that, but want to have one baseline. Friday Night - 00z Suite @ 10:1 ratios - MMU - CMC: 12.9” - GFS: 0” - EURO: 17” - ICON: 0.2” - UKIE: 6.4” *this post brought to you by insomnia
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Euro and CMC are both dream storms for me. If they keep the same general depiction through Monday I’ll allow myself to start getting excited. Best potential we’ve had in a long time.
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ICON at 00z looks somewhat similar to 18z GFS in that it hits Delaware and VA and coastal southern jersey with a nice storm before scooting OTS
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Gfs looks like it will go OTS after nailing Delmarva pretty good but the idea is still there.
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Big storm idea still on the table, nice. What could go wrong
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00z suite was pretty epic. Trying to only check once a day since we’re still 6 days out and don’t want to get caught up in run to run noise. At this point a storm is a possibility, that’s all I got lol
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Saturday could be the 4th time I see snow this week and potentially the largest of all of them. Regardless of them all being small, that’s pretty rare around here. I’ll take it, especially if I can get rid of all the ice before then.
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For sure. I have some really thick ice chunks on the driveway from being away so it’s really appreciated on my end.
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Saw that, up my way, I’m seeing up to an inch would be as much as last night. Snowpack is frozen solid despite there only being a couple inches on the ground.
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Hitting a brick wall just to my east and south. Looking forward to seeing the pics from the beach locations!
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Only need to look at the radar at this point. Will provide a better sense of what’s going on than hourly models that are trying to play catch up but either way the forecast is pretty straight forward for an inch or two around the metro
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31/28 - Morristown already on the northern fringe to see 1”+ and that dry air will take awhile to overcome. Any amount that whitens things up works for me.
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Sign me up for another couple of inches on top of what im currently sitting on (about 2” of snow/sleet). I’ll take things whitened up again.
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This is the first time I’m seeing these ranges from an NWS product. Maybe because they’re accounting for both storms?
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Was on the western edge yesterday and look to be on the far northern fringe *right now* but I’ve been enjoying tracking both. If I could pull off two to three for the third event in basically ten days, I’d call that a big win
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Around 2” - sleet now. About what I expected and super happy for all those in the city and LI cashing in
