radarman
-
Posts
14,311 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by radarman
-
10% Feb 2013 60% Jan 2018 30% Jan 2015 -
I held quite a bit back from the nuances of Shutesbury disco that I've been itching to unload
-
You didn't grow up there you wouldn't understand
-
Tend to agree because I'm hoping/thinking deformation comes west of (some) progs, but if not there's a pretty good chance we baking powder as we did in 2015.
-
Maybe I'm missing something but it looks like ~.7" of QPF here and that map printing out like 20" of snow? Maybe if all .7" were under a ripping deffy band ok, but if deffy is east .7 qpf might yield 7".
-
It`s possible this heavy band of snow may pivot as far west as eastern CT/RI into the Worcester Hills. Definitely seems like one forecaster is thinking Jan 2015. If deffy doesn't get past ORH take em down in the valley. I don't buy it though. Expecting 10-14" here with mostly upside.
-
you'd have to pretty strongly consider watches for the east slope
-
12z eps illustrated how easily a run could go haywire... most folks understood the EE rule was in play.
-
the 3km nam snakes some really dry air down the valley which seems unrealistic compared to the other models. May at least partially explain the sharp cutoff.
-
if they ever retire the nam I'm pulling a Jan 6th on ncep
-
even if it's just a hair worse aloft, I like the earlier blossoming of the precip shield back this way.
-
not saying you are wrong, but that's not a good way to communicate risk. Fortunately, I doubt anyone pays attention to those maps.
-
12z overall takeaways less dragging the energy out of the sw better northern stream phasing maybe a little less confluence unclear surface structure
-
give me that h5 and I'll take my chances with the surface
-
I think Newport jackpotted 12/7/81. Push it back to 2031.
-
Also, esp in the Berks they'll likely start snowing tomorrow night and snow off and on til Sunday with the approaching n stream dynamics and the available moisture. Hi ratio stuff too. I'm thinking 3-6" anyway even if the slp happened to go well east. Nam has been bullish on the convective processes, which we like to see.
-
Gefs mean is pretty well skewed by its far east members that I think can be safely tossed. Good clustering to the west.
-
What would a great event be without a nammy run like that? This is why we're here. At least me
-
yeah the coastal peeps can keep it. Give me PDII, straight down.
-
Jan 2011 was quite good in the valley albeit ramping up going east. Anyway, such is our climo, we get a little cut of action to the west and to the east with the occasional planetary alignment megaband.
-
Good skating as well
