radarman
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Everything posted by radarman
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We picked up a 4 pack of The Reverend today, not by coincidence -
no earlier than after it happens
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Stop at Treehouse before driving his modified Panther out toward the BM?
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fronto from the initial surge looks great for the CT coast on both nam runs. Should be nice floor on the event even if the slp manifestations don't work out favorably for some. If somebody should get hit with both that'd be a sneaky jackpot candidate. I like the LI idea, though I might take another darkhorse with Newport RI.
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10% Feb 2013 60% Jan 2018 30% Jan 2015
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I held quite a bit back from the nuances of Shutesbury disco that I've been itching to unload
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You didn't grow up there you wouldn't understand
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Tend to agree because I'm hoping/thinking deformation comes west of (some) progs, but if not there's a pretty good chance we baking powder as we did in 2015.
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Maybe I'm missing something but it looks like ~.7" of QPF here and that map printing out like 20" of snow? Maybe if all .7" were under a ripping deffy band ok, but if deffy is east .7 qpf might yield 7".
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It`s possible this heavy band of snow may pivot as far west as eastern CT/RI into the Worcester Hills. Definitely seems like one forecaster is thinking Jan 2015. If deffy doesn't get past ORH take em down in the valley. I don't buy it though. Expecting 10-14" here with mostly upside.
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you'd have to pretty strongly consider watches for the east slope
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12z eps illustrated how easily a run could go haywire... most folks understood the EE rule was in play.
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the 3km nam snakes some really dry air down the valley which seems unrealistic compared to the other models. May at least partially explain the sharp cutoff.
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if they ever retire the nam I'm pulling a Jan 6th on ncep
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even if it's just a hair worse aloft, I like the earlier blossoming of the precip shield back this way.
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not saying you are wrong, but that's not a good way to communicate risk. Fortunately, I doubt anyone pays attention to those maps.
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12z overall takeaways less dragging the energy out of the sw better northern stream phasing maybe a little less confluence unclear surface structure
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give me that h5 and I'll take my chances with the surface
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I think Newport jackpotted 12/7/81. Push it back to 2031.
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Also, esp in the Berks they'll likely start snowing tomorrow night and snow off and on til Sunday with the approaching n stream dynamics and the available moisture. Hi ratio stuff too. I'm thinking 3-6" anyway even if the slp happened to go well east. Nam has been bullish on the convective processes, which we like to see.
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Gefs mean is pretty well skewed by its far east members that I think can be safely tossed. Good clustering to the west.
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What would a great event be without a nammy run like that? This is why we're here. At least me
