radarman

There's been consistent storm scale rotation up there, but nothing has been able to tighten up very much.

Last shot:

wow... there goes the camera

Mesoscale Discussion 1535 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2022 Areas affected...New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479... Valid 211807Z - 212000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will continue across the western and central parts of WW 479 this afternoon. The severe threat is expected to move eastward into parts of Maine over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic imagery shows a cluster of strong to severe storms from northern New York extending eastward and southward across western New England. The strongest storms are located in west-central New England along an axis of moderate instability, with the RAP analyzing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Amid the larger cluster, a well-developed supercell is ongoing in western New Hampshire. The instability combined with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range according to the RAP, will continue to support supercell development. Supercells should be capable of wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado or two. However, the latest HRRR suggests that convective coverage will continue to rapidly increase. This will favor linear development along the instability axis. This line is expected to become increasing organized and move into western Maine within a few hours. The stronger parts of the line are expected to be associated with wind damage. ..Broyles.. 07/21/2022

from NWS chat: (2:02 PM) NWS Boston-Joe Dellicarpini: Starting to see storms form into a line from western MA into western CT. Airmass over this region is looking favorable for storms producing wind damage, although there is a relative min in downdraft CAPE. Also interesting to note that many of the composite indices show some potential for a tornado - however 0-500m SRH is fairly low (<95) and LCLs are above 1000m which are negative factors (and fairly important). Bottom line is we see increasing potential for wind damage with these storms as they head toward central MA and through northern CT in next few hours. If llv helicity were a primary limiting factor that would argue for the channeling effect of the valley to take on more importance. The LCLs could still be problematic especially to produce a strong tornado out of a discrete cell. Once the shift into linear mode occurs I'd expect them to drop but then you're more looking for a QLCS type spinup unless you got a break in the line/embedded supercell.

honestly, I think the tornado probs are a bit underdone if anything.

Either that or to sniff out the messenger shuffle

nice to have the Goes-16 1 minute data online... If you stare it long enough you might convince yourself a TCU is developing this afternoon https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=goes16-meso1&product=vis

Some of the 3km sim soundings are damned impressive early this afternoon out ahead of the line. Maybe a little vbv but we're nitpicking. Unclear if there will be a trigger initially.

If London wants to trade their 104 and dry I'm down

It's desert like out there. Cracked ground in the summer. Cactuses. Lizards.

probably about 3 degrees warmer on the low

We had some epic TCU that day at least

Heavy RN here. Again. Not a ray of sunshine all day.

6/6/10? But no... other than the meh lapse rates, this is not that. Or maybe there was a totally meh event on 6/1/10 also that I'm forgetting

Yep, few things better than drinking coffee out on the screen porch in the morning with birds chirping away. Great for the cats too, who sit transfixed by rabbits, chipmunks, etc. Too buggy in these parts for the deck. A typically windy spot on the coast might be tolerable.

Would like to see a little clearing before getting too bullish in these parts. Maybe we get a window after like 1pm?

Pretty good storm complex rolled through from NE to SW. Missed most of Tarrant Co however.

The minimalistic production of that particular song was kind of an early precursor to a lot of today's stuff that most of us old bastards don't care for.

2" of rain over the last 2 days.

Hammertime round 2 Heavy rain

It has been epic from a sensible wx standpoint no doubt.

congrats!!

LSR- "multiple trees down on railroad tracks - amtrack rail service between springfield and windsor locks shutdown per amateur radio"

KCEF 122202Z 26036G51KT 1 1/2SM +TSRA SQ BKN025 BKN037 OVC120 29/20 A2963 RMK AO2A SLP038