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USCG RS

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Posts posted by USCG RS

    February 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    6 hours ago, vegan_edible said:

    my condolences liberty. i'm 27 and still in shock. really holding out hope we get some good snow this year, i really need that serenity

    I'm sorry :/. I wish there was some magic phrase that could be said to make the pain dissappear or lessen, but as you know this is not how it works. What I can tell you is this - the pain dulls and as it does, the joy of their life and love eventually shines through. I have lost both my parents and while it was -and sometimes still is- heartbreaking, their memories now allow me to smile most of the time. As time passes that sharp pain subsides to an ache and then one day is eventually replaced with a small joy as you remember, realize and re-live their profound impact on your life.

    I would not wish this pain on my worst enemy, but I can promise you, it grows you in ways you never thought possible while simultaneously allowing you to enjoy their love in a way you could not before, even though they are no longer physically here to provide it. 

    • Thanks 1

    Winter Banter Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

    I’m rooting for the gates of hell to open up at the 50 yard line at kickoff. 

    In theory that would pump heights over the Western US, which could lead to a cold snap in the East as the atmosphere balances out. Combine that with the energy dumped into the atmosphere from the event and that child create a hell of a storm off the EC. 

    So.. Yeah, I'm game for that 

    • Haha 2

    January 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    49 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

    I'm not sure if I'd be more upset with another cutter or a southern slider. I'm sick and tired of cutters but getting blanked while places to the south get snow also feels pretty bad.  

    This should be the boards theme for this winter. At least for Dec 2022.

     

    January 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Just now, jm1220 said:

    If the trough axis is over the Midwest it promotes the strong SE ridge, so we get cutters. We need the Pacific to cooperate and move the West Coast ridge inland. Otherwise the general storm track will favor cutters. The big PV over Canada if that happens would just mean it gets colder in between cutters/SWFEs. 

    I agree 100%. The Pac dominates our weather more than just about anything. There is absolutely no threading the needle when the PNA will not cooperate. 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    January 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

    Torch has to be 70 or higher.  50's is still just lukewarm at best.

     

    The saving grace to this winter is heating oil. In October/November the Energy and Emergency Management community were preparing for the worst, including an inability of the average person to afford it while also being concerned about the need for rolling electric blackouts due to a lack of supply. 

    Thankfully, the rather mild winter has negated this threat for the most part. 

    2 hours ago, lee59 said:

    Storm offshore tomorrow keeps inching a little closer. Looks like eastern Long Island may get something. Southeastern New England looks to get accumulating snow.

    Yeah.. I don't think Central Suffolk and east should sleep on this 

    1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

    Is our area more vulnerable to this ridging than other parts of the world at the same latitude?

     

    I would argue in some ways yes and here's why: our area, LI especially, is directly abutting the water. All snow for us is essentially thread the needle, even in a great pattern (of course there are always exceptions). The WAR forces warm air towards the island without much to subdue it. Ie, southerly winds or pushing an LP too close to LI/SE CT/NYC is a recipe for disaster because of our proximity to the water.

    There is, of course, a flip side to this. The WAR causes a plethora of baroclynicity and this can really benefit the area when the gradient is in the right location. 

    1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

    Now if we want to talk about not looking at modeling and turning to our environment...

    One MET in the NE forum went against the models and said that since certain birds were still around it would be a warm winter. Amazingly he turned out right.

    My dad who is 82 and has seen many winters told me in December that he was not changing the oil in his snow thrower as he had a feeling it was going to be a dud winter. Has seen this before. This was back in early December.

    I am not a nature person, but makes you wonder.....

    Humans are still more intuitive than machines when they listen to themselves. For now, anyway 

    12 minutes ago, eduggs said:

    I suppose it's possible :lol: I'm in favor of anything that brings us snow.

    Raindrops and snowflakes need nuclei - usually dust particles - to crystallize around and transfer vapor into the solid phase. I believe salt particularly near coastal regions, e.g., LI, coastal SNE, are very efficient at facilitating crystallization. My guess is this would promote flurries vs. drizzle but it's possible it could allow precipitation to form below the normal crystallization zone. 

    Ya know... The USSR used to seed and play with salt for wx purposes... 

    • Like 1

    Winter Banter Thread

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    3 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

    If I'm not mistaken, the average high is around 39 for the city right now, and in July at this time about 85.  So let's say we have a 50 degree day now, that's +11, so -11 in July would be 74.

    That would be essentially a beautiful spring day. 

    • Like 1

    January 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

    You may be absolutely correct and you’re undoubtedly extremely knowledgeable. I actually really enjoy your posts despite your reputation for being a downer. 

    With that said, I do find it kind of odd that on a science forum we have posters telling the professionals here that they’re wrong (or in SnoSki’s case actually calling one “naive?”).  It is also, undoubtedly, much easier to keep calling for essentially a continuation of “warm and shitty” during a warm and shitty winter. 

    I think what becomes irksome (at least IMHO) is how you guys have a tendency to imply what you’re saying is verbatim fact and not just an interpretation or opinion. Even if you end up right, I’m still going to lend more weight to what the professional meteorologists that post here have to offer on the subject. 

    Of course it doesn’t mean they’re infallible or that you (and others) are wrong, certainly. But the point is we don’t know for certain how things are going to play out. It’s been a very complicated winter to forecast for the multitude of reasons we all know 50x over by now. 

    This is America. Expert means nothing to anyone anymore.. er... Maybe they never did? 

    • Like 1

    January 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    16 hours ago, Tatamy said:

    People out on eastern LI need to watch closely the model runs for Sunday.  Big changes right now for Cape Cod / SE Massachusetts on the GFS/CMC with the following ULL.

    100%.

    This reminds me of a storm that was to go OTS about 20 years (Maybe 23?) and clipped from about Rt. 112 East with some pretty appreciable snows. 

    January 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

     

    It'll never happen...I still say NYC gets over 20 this winter...the MJO is gonna cause something big and I've been saying that for days...you do not long term torch with an MJO wave that strong through 8-1-2 ever

    Honestly, a pattern like this -assuming it flips- leads to 1 heck of a storm many times. 

    Over abundance of warm ocean waters fuels a storm that eventually throws A LOT of moisture into a cold landmass. I know it is elementary, but some ppl need reminding we are one really strong storm away from making up most -if not all- of our seasonal average....

    • Like 2

    January 2023

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

    From a phycological perspective, I think that since we had such an epic period from 2000 through 2018 this 5 year period startng with 18/19 has shook us. We are looking for climate reasons for this change, when in actuality 2000 through 2018 was the abnormality, not the current bad stretch.

    Look at the 70, 80s and 90s, bad stretches and years were the norm. Geez I remember a February in the early 90s we're we wore short sleeves to school on day that hit 70.

    The 60s were more comparable to this century with snowfall.

    Yes global temps are rising, but in no way are March clippers, December snow with a -4AO EXTINCT.

    I wrote this elsewhere. But believe it's also relevant here:

    The physics of the realm seem to be becoming increasingly too complicated for models to understand, the farther into the future it goes. Ie, the models are beginning to have to compute so many increasing variables, it's simply overpowering them.

    It makes sense to me from a chaos point of view. The more chaos in a system, the more volatile and less predictable the outcomes become. Models are seeing increasing potential energy tied in with increasing background variables. 

    But I digress, this is not necessarily the place for this discussion. Yet I bring this up for two reasons: 

    1) Agreeing that long range modeling is grasping at straws lately. 

    2) I believe the physics of this realm tends to portray themselves early in the season. Ie, there's a reason we always predict a pattern change and rarely see it. An object in motion stays in motion until acted upon by another force. So -in the case of what I am advocating here- the seasons are sufficient to change the patterns as natural forces act to change the patterns. Yet once a season begins, that pattern tends to lock in as it take tremendous power/force to alter a seasonal pattern. Of course that does not mean that it cannot happen, however, it is much harder to break into a new pattern than most computer models, ppl, etc give it credit for. 

    As an aside, this does not mean I am canceling winter on Jan 2. That - In my opinion- would be foolish. Just laying out some thoughts. 

     

     

    • Like 2

    Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change

    in Climate Change

    Posted

    On 11/30/2022 at 2:27 AM, LibertyBell said:

    from NYC subforum

    Dimming the Sun to Cool the Planet Is a Desperate Idea, Yet We're Inching Toward It. The scientists who study solar geoengineering don’t want anyone to try it. But climate inaction is making it more likely.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/dimming-the-sun-to-cool-the-planet-is-a-desperate-idea-yet-were-inching-toward-it/amp

    Not for nothing.. Kinda proves the Matrix is Real.. 

     

     

    irj1v.png

    • Like 1

    Historic Christmas Lake Effect Blizzard

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

    Are you moving here for the snow or for work? What's most important to you conveniences, land, close to the lake?

    Long Island is getting out of hand regarding expenses and my brother owns a company in the Buffalo area. Plus, I tend to think Buffalo is going to be 1 of the next major up and coming cities in the US. 

    Regarding work, I am remote in all I do - thankfully; so all I need is High Speed Internet. Though I think Buffalo needs some help regarding their Emergency Management :poster_oops:

    We do not mind driving, however, we do not want to be completely rural either - if that makes sense. 

    I would personally prefer a place with a garage. Other than that, we regularly use the gym and we tend to eat either pasture raised or organic foods - so I am not sure if certain areas would be easier to shop (we do order alot online for delivery - so not the worst thing if nothing close). 

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