USCG RS

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why? 

See what I posted to ORH above

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro had a crazy awesome 12z run...so if it ticked a hair east, it would still be a crazy awesome run, though maybe just a tick east. The GFS has never had a crazy awesome run in this whole storm anywhere NW of about PYM. I'll define "crazy awesome" as 18"+ totals.

I was referring to the Euro following the UKie correlation brother. 

With regards to the GFS, I never really have liked this model tbh. I look at it as a big picture model, however, with the finer details, it just does not have the resolution. Therefore, in a situation such as this, I tend not give it much weight. 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

No help from the Ukie...hair east of 12z run,.

I would therefore expect the Euro to follow suit...

1 minute ago, Semper911 said:

Makers Mark. Never tried High West, but I'll look for it if you recommend it.

My brother turned me onto it. I recommend the Rendezvous version if you can find it. Campfire, though, is rather spicy and this could jive depending on your palate. 

3 minutes ago, Semper911 said:

And there's no work tomorrow. And there's bourbon.

High West? 

Just now, Zeus said:

I say we release Barabbas instead. 

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

No caution flags from anyone tonight. Apparently nothing can go wrong. 

Thats it. Sunny and 58 degrees in Boston tomorrow. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Been worried about this

Yes you have. Think it comes any further west? 

Edit- We truly are close to an absolute historic storm. 

I'm pretty sure you can have an ERC delayed by 24-36 hours easily by a landfall.  Even a brief one such as a small island 

Yes sir. (It fits my theory I proposed during Irma... And with other scientific theories proposed by those much more educated than me in this field). But the physics of the HBL are easily disrupted by land. The physics which allow the convergence and eventual building of the secondary eyewall is easily messed up. As such, the ERC can be delayed, which thus can hurt the structure of the storm (to explain this post further, my theory was that ERC are a normal part of keeping a healthy and mature storm, that happen regardless of outside influences )

Every run that has had Jose hanging around off NE has had Maria further off the coast. The Euro leaves room for a NE hit based on Jose getting out of the way. The modeling suggests the more of Jose we see the less of a worry Maria will be. Doesn't mean the models are right but that's what we have to go on.

The difference with this is that she will likely be a major hurricane moving up the eastern seaboard. This presents a different scenario and with the WAR likely remaining strong, she should continue to plow to the north. She will take the path of least resistance, and though the AO looks to continue favor blocking over the mid atl and NE, I don't see it being strong enough to surpress Maria (assuming she is a major hurricane). That WAR is unrelenting. Likewise, just look at what Jose is doing and we can see that there is a good chance that if Jose can push through the AO created blocking, Maria likely will as well. Additionally, if the NAM (big if) is correct and Jose actually makes landfall, he becomes a remnant lp system, even if he is able to make the loop. This means that he will not be strong enough to create an out for Maria to escape ots. I am very concerned at this point for the EC.