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Posts posted by USCG RS
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Just now, White Gorilla said:
Has the NAM historically had hiccup runs like this with complex systems inside 48? We know that the crazy uncle often goes wild with too much qpf, but the other direction?
It has. It tends to be rather fickle due to the manner in which it was designed.
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Just now, Snow88 said:
H5 looked good. Weird run.
Here's the thing -and this is strictly my opinion- there is blocking in the Atlantic. H5 also looked significantly different from the surface projections. I would say the NAM is having issues regarding when and where to consolidate the energy. While I would not go as far as to discount it currently, I would say that I would like to see the rest of 00z suite, specifically the RGEM.
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Just now, HVSnowLover said:
NAM doesn't show a band at all anywhere, the low seems too far east and weak to have any real impact
It never consolidates the energy from what I can see. It also appears that the kicker 'kicks' or repels vs phasing a bit.
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Can I vote never?[mention=1920]SnowDemon[/mention]. Nice PM. See ya in 2020.
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Just now, Doorman said:
NIce to see you thinking the area is going to receive a nice hit.
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7 minutes ago, kingbaus said:
Euro is a no go. Looks like the nam is on it's own.
Not exactly. It is more that the Ukie and Nam had more interaction with the kicker whereas the Euro seems to only partially interact.
Remember, this particular s/w is still over 'No-Mans land' in Canada and is therefore yet to be sampled fully. This particular s/w will have a rather significant impact in regards to sensible weather near the coast, so I would be interested to see how this evolves over the next day or so.
Edit- the 'kicker' is still towards the Gulf of Alaska, not quite yet into Canada.
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16 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:
nam vs everything else so far tonight
I ain't a betting man but...
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9 minutes ago, Enigma said:
Exactly. There is a 3-6 hour window of potential snow for majority on this board. I'm thinking little to accumulation for city, especially with wet streets and temp at 34.
Given the present set up, I would agree with you that this is the correct call. That withstanding, I believe there is the potential for some surprises, especially given the energy around and the possibility of the LP closing off. Should this take place, there is the distinct possibility the tri-state area takes a hard hit IMO.
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13 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:
Unlike many people these days, I tend to defer to expertise. You've got credentials, and in legal speak, your expert opinion is given great weight...
You mean you actually listen when someone who has studied something talks about what they have studied? How could you.
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Perhaps he's just being sarcastic? Maybe. Then again, it is Tony...Or realistic!
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Just now, Snow88 said:
These storms tend to come in faster than modeled.
Tony, you have almost 40K posts. Not gonna lie, kind of impressed.
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Just now, Rjay said:
It's snow during the entire 84hr run. I had issues getting it but Geoff helped me out.
RGEM is not quite in its deadly range quite yet
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That's kind of funny... I literally retweeted this about 10 hrs ago.We never saw a first week of December storm evolution like this before.
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Tbh - assuming this track verifies - it will depend on how quickly the LP closes off. Sure we torch front end, but of we close off, we crash just as quickly and with the energy involved, these bands can add up quickly.Not when you have a borderline airmass, a warm ocean, and a low tucked in this much.
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In fact, a closed LP south of LI with such a strong HP to the N may actually deliver a pretty good shot of snow.With that track you’ll get more snow than a foot
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Yeah! Anything showing massive snow several days out is always the correct solution, just ask Twitter and Cranky, because he always backs Twitter with that stuffIt’s a lock you guys are just newbies
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Here's the thing, the reason a mandatory evacuation is ordered is to absolve the responder of the liability associated with said responder not responding when they are called. The other side of that is the fact that a person not evacuating is endangering that same responders life and it is also meant to protect the responder in that way as well.Yep, bill em. But also stop doing unconstitutional things like closing public areas during Hurricanes. You can't close a beach. You can't tell me I can't be on public land.
I don't know how these chasers actually get away with what they do. When Sandy hit, NJ beaches were essentially closed. It was illegal to be there. Which is unconstitutional to the max.
So in summary. I can be on whatever public land whenever I want, if EMS can't reach me, or bills me for services, or I die because of my stupidity; that is on me.
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First, let Josh be found first. Last I heard, he is still listed as missing.
Secondly, to do so creates several issues, mainly which that this amounts to a tax by a United States entity. The founding fathers looked at tax as the ability to kill an individual, so while there are valid points behind the desire for this, there is also legal precedent which would likely disallow this.
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8 minutes ago, Semper911 said:
200 yards? Are you sure it's that much? 2 football fields? My vis is like from the endzone to the 30yd line. 100 feet and then a wall of white.
Yeah even down here it is really coming down
Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm
in New York City Metro
Posted
How much we talking?