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USCG RS

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    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    The GFS and the GGEM aren't even close to each other. The models are still pretty far apart but even the most SE/Coldest models are not showing a snowstorm for the coast so thats why I'm saying be realistic, this is at best case a front end dump scenario and the only real question is how much does the surface torch. 
    Being honest, I don't believe the surface torches. The question will become how thick a warm layer are we dealing with. Also, if this shifts further SE (still very much in the cards. Imo), the coast is very much in play. The coast is within a standard deviation shift of a good bit of snow. This is very possible, especially with the system itself not ashore yet and the HP bringing very brutal cold. We have seen many times where cold. Is significantly undermodeled. This cold is brutal. Speed and location is still being worked out.

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    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    Would an even later phase with the PV result in a further south and east LP center resulting a shift in the wind direction to more snow/sleet and less rain?
    The primary.. I highly doubt goes as far north as currently depicted. I know I keep beating this drum.. But this storm is baroclynicly driven. It's not going to just shoot north and redevelop imo. Since the temperature gradient will be pushing SE, more than likely this storm just shoots across the Cumberland Gap. This allows for colder air to truly filter in. This is why I am calling for colder / snowier conditions for the tri state.
    This is an overrunning event imp, not a phase or transfer.

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    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    in New York City Metro

    Posted

    I’ve been reading through 20 pages of posts for the last several days. What do you guys expect? Santa sliding down the chimney?
    Every model posted here on nearly every run has shown mostly rain (or worse) for the coast, a mix just N and W (or worse) and all snow well inland.
    Nobody wants to see it...but as an observer it has been plain as day for 48 hours.
    Things change...but this thread also talks about the fundamentals not being lined up to make that change happen.
    But the fundamentals would support colder currently. Are the midlevels worrisome? As depicted, yes. However - and I said this yesterday- this comes down to a baroclynic gradient. The LP slamming into such a strong HP and phasing with the PV does not make all that much synoptic sense. Therefore, without the phase , this storm will ride the baroclynic gradient. This is not an LP phasing and bombing out, nothing in the n/s would show that. Therefore this is a couple of perturbations running along a stationary front essentially. In turn it allows for a considerable overrunning event. With this in mind, the perturbation (LP) is going to take the path of least resistance. This would translate to the strongest baroclinic gradient - likely SE. This HP is rather strong and it is going to shift the gradient SE as the weekend progresses, just look at how the models have trended much flatter and further S with the initial wave.

    Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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