USCG RS

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If this does strengthen into a category 2 or a higher-end category 1 we are in very deep trouble here

Ill be honest, I believe we should be preparing for this possibility. It will not take much for this thing to strengthen to this, especially over the gulf stream. 

21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Classic emergency management paradigm. You get a disaster, there's documented shortcomings in infrastructure then nothing changes when the next event occurs. But when the next event happens, the baseline infrastructure doesn't get improved yet supports more residences, businesses, etc.

And then politicians look at us and go why didn't you prepare us for this? 

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

this is a really sensitive setup with non linear reactions to short term changes. if 18z continues the west trend then it's panic time for nyc/li

Very much appreciated, thank you. 

1 minute ago, Lava Rock said:

was our infrastructure more tolerant 30yrs ago?

Our infrastructure is horrific. Tree trimming has not been kept up with. Poles and lines are old. Trees are still ripe for destruction. 

Just now, forkyfork said:

this is my hurricane now thx

Serious question... What are your thoughts? Would be helpful for some decision making for clients/red cross. 

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah we pretty much want to hope the UKIE/higher res ideas are bunk.

Given the synoptic set up, I would think they have the right idea... Thoughts? 

15 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Gfs about 25 miles west of last run

I would like a break. 

15 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Gfs about 25 miles west of last run

I would like a break. 

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

LI/CT would be in big trouble if the stronger storm scenario plays out.

Very much so. Unfortunately, this is why I am expecting LI to take a hard hit. 

9 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I think goal post is CT/RI to Cape with more hydro related concerns vs wind. However it won’t take much wind to take down some tree after today. 
 

Interesting to track and easily could go out to see.  

TBH, I do not see anyway for this to escape. The NAO is plummeting, allowing the HP to flex West. The Northern and Southern HP are already connecting. I just do not see this being able to escape. 

This is really giving me a C LI bullseye feel. 

Enough to knock out the lights though

I haven't seen lightning like this in a long time 

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

That was quote the show in Smithtown. I was there and lake Grove for it. 

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Smithtown area has got to be getting rocked right now. Judging by radar and the fact I hear constant thunder from that thing here in Riverhead. 

That was quote the show in Smithtown. I was there and lake Grove for it. 

On 6/30/2021 at 7:17 PM, nycwinter said:

their is no rescue it's a recovery mission now..

Correct. While this is the potential for a person or two to be found alive, this is a slim possibility as well. The likelihood is that all persons missing are deceased. 

@weatherwiz @CoastalWx @Typhoon Tip or anyone else who may know... Completely OT question. Are damage survey teams made up strictly of meteorologists? 

38 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Not when there’s CG around lol

Did someone say CG? 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe NW of the city could grab a half decent event but the southerly flow usually means lights out near the coast. The way this month has been though, who knows. 

Soundings would say only the sfc goes above freezing, if at all. A good quick thump would cool the column. Plus, waters are not nearly as warm as a month ago.

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

What if he is right 

11 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

The  last few runs of the HRRR is showing the the low in the south further north . The HP to our north has moved west to being directly north of NYC at the US/ Canadian border. could possibly help with the strength with the suppression?

 

Its more about being a strung out mess than suppression here. The stronger the LP, the more it will push N, NW. It has the room at H5. 

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Classless move by Lee.  This is a tough forecast.  I'm glad no one on here calls out the NWS.  If I see a weenie do that, it won't be pretty.  

That damn nws... Nvm. 

On a more serious note, has anyone been looking at the gulf? Things exploding. I wouldn't be surprised to see those 1 inch contours shift north in real time

4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I never had a winter weather advisory for 5 to 9 inches before.

 

Guess they know something we don’t

Comes down to duration. 

Need to hit 6 inches avg in 12 hours or 8 inches average in 24. 

The average of 5-9 is 7. So it falls short as this is longer than 12 hrs. 

13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

http://www.northshorewx.com/19990225SnowTotals.html

 

I remember this as well. Yaphank was getting slammed with heavy snow and then you went 8-10 miles west and it was nothing. 

13 minutes ago, sferic said:

100% Correct

I remember Paul Kocin on the NWS explaining what went wrong later that evening.