USCG RS

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This continues to look like 1983 in a 2021 climate.  The evolution of the storm itself isn’t really close to 83 at all but that easterly inflow jet is.  

That crippled nyc and left persons stranded on highways. 

Just now, jm1220 said:

Good, an improvement from that model was all I needed to see. Would be best if the 700mb low ticked east a little more but there's time for that. 

LI may be lining up for a heck of a hit... 

I may need to get some crow to cook. 

12 minutes ago, Metsfan said:

Um lol no. I'm actually a met. 

Anthony's a met in his own mind.... 

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If you follow what the pattern supports people shouldn't be flipping out. I was always more worried about yet another situation here where we worry about mixing/dryslot vs suppressed. Not saying the mixing will really happen but too suppressed is off the table at this point. This'll be a big test for the new GFS, it's been the most bullish by far for NYC. But even these amped models seem to end up delivering a good amount for places away from the twin forks so I'll take it. 

I agree with you. I was worried about this from the get go and then doubted myself with the confluence. 

But - like I stated - I originally thought that the Coastal plain would have a hard time taking a strong hit from this. 

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Huh? The pna gets getting better and better. But I do agree that NW could do the best but the big cities will do just as well as them. I think SE of 95 could mix for a while but they too will do good

The pna continues to forecast going neutral, however, it keeps getting pushed back, and is now looking to potentially do so just after the storm. That withstanding, the negative tilt looks to hurt rather than help the Coastal plain and the amping looks to flood the Coastal plain. 

Again, I could be - and would gladly be - wrong. But just my two cents. 

Just now, jm1220 said:

The new UKMET looks a lot like the GGEM to me, so it's not on its own. 

I said this on another board. 

An interior and North hit has made the most sense to me from day one. I know I waivered with confluence... However, I don't believe this is a Coastal plain hit. The pattern hasn't supported it all winter and the Pacific is again flexing its muscles. Combined with LA Nina, I really don't see the Coastal plain taking a hard hit.

That withstanding, the big cities - and more specifically - N and W, I expect these areas to take a pretty hard hit. DC and BWI are in the game as well as they will stay west of the LP.

Just my opinion. I've eaten plenty of crow before, so I wouldn't mind eating more (sustained me through covid)

Lastly, the waters are warm. This will favor a quicker intensification and negative tilt. Likewise, if the storm stalls and the coast takes a prolonged period of easterly winds, this bodes ominously as well. 

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The flow becomes more NNE by the time the better snows get north of the city which is why I think the max benefits of that 850 easterly flow probably happen from around the city south 

Any forecast for the area? Or still too early?  

34 minutes ago, RDRY said:

The latest Ukie was well north.

The upper levels on the 00z Euro do not quite support MSLP. 

The phase is just a hair off also. I would be interested to see the ensembles and I would say that the Euro is off kilter currently. 

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Why post h5 when you can just post a snow map?

Exactly. 

19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I want just one run tonight that doesn't show a disjointed/messy/sloppy phase.  I hope it's the Euro.  

Eh. I doubt it. 

4 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Loud clap of thunder in Brentwood (LI).

That was the brightest lightning I have seen in a rather long time. I'm over in north Babylon currently. 

4 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

I don't understand. It's not about cold air wrapping around the sfc low. It's about resaturating the column and mid level lift. 

We're missing that and the mid levels torched due to winds off the ocean. 

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Mid level low 

mid level low really ruined this for the immediate tri state. Still a nice winter storm but could’ve been a lot more without sneaky warm layer 

Yeah. This is exactly what I was worried about as models began to amp and move this NW. 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While there have been areas of heavy snow the last couple of
hours, the most organized band of heavy snow has worked north
of the region. To the south, the precipitation has become more
disjointed with reports of sleet working in across the NYC metro
and Long Island. There could be some wavering the next couple
of hours as intensity varies, but it appears NYC and Long Island
will not see much more in the way of heavy snow. There could
still be an additional 6 or more inches across the Lower Hudson
Valley, interior NE NJ, and southern CT through the end of the
event. Across the NYC metro and Long Island, perhaps an
additional 1 to 3 inches. This could be pushing it, but it will
depend on how quickly the cold air can be drawn back in around
the surface low passing to the south in the morning.

Thus, the storm total snow has been adjusted downward with as
little as 3 to 5 inches across eastern Long Island, 5 to 10
inches across the NYC metro and western Long Island, and 10 to
15 inches to the north. This downward trend may have to be
continued with subsequent updates depending on the evolution of
the precipitation shield to the south and west as a strong
negatively tilted shortwave trough approaches the region.
Regional radar clearly shows back filling on the radar across
the northern Mid Atlantic region, which will pivot NE.

Gust NE to E winds will become more northerly as the low pulls
east towards daybreak, which will allow colder air to filter
back into the region, possibly changing precipitation back to
snow toward the end of the event.

NE winds could gust to 35-45 mph across much of the area overnight,
with gusts to 45-55 mph possible across far eastern Long Island.
This will result in limited visibilities, but with mainly mixed
precipitation with the strongest winds, visibilities will
generally be greater than a 1/4 mile.

OKX discussion from 2307 16 December 2020 

5 minutes ago, ChickenMan888 said:

Is that even legal? lmao

LI and S CT actually had higher rates in Feb 2013

32 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I don't think I've had thundersleet since January 26th, 2011.  

Feb 2013 had it for Suffolk County

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Are 850 temps 13C colder than water temps there?  I'm not sure they are.  It also seems to be developing in a manner its not associated with ocean effect

Clashing of the two airmasses causing frontogenesis? 

3 hours ago, wizard021 said:

I am going to be right. 

 

All hail and bow at my feet 

Is what I believe you were trying to say

14 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The curse of Doorman is upon us

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Hairy piglet

Mashed potato sundae 

Fire and ice 

1004mb low

 

Best 

Tommy E

a 1004 mb low will rain down fire and Ice while pigs fly because it is armageddon and the music is playing (the best of Tommy E) as the ship sinks. ANDDDD the mashed potato sundae is our last meal. 

See. Got it.

Just now, Rjay said:

No it wasn't.  If you reread what he said he didn't actually say anything, like usual.  

Eh, maybe I was just seeing something vague and interpreting it how I wanted to. Gets the job done though 

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

I think the GFS is out to lunch. The Nam, rgem, CMC and ukie all seem to be focusing on moving the heaviest snow further north. Looking more and more like warmer air and/or a dry slot cutting down on the totals at the coast after a good initial thump.

Watch the Euro come up with a different solution now to throw it all out of whack just when it looks like a consensus starting to form.

Yeah, what Doorman was hinting at last night and what has been a concern of mine for the past couple of days.

1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said:

Doesn’t mean diddly without knowing the thermals

With that type of HP anchored in, thats a nice hard hit for the entire sub forum. 

Just now, Rjay said:

I would say that's a pretty perfect spot for the entire subforum. 

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If anyone wants to know why those CIPS analogs don’t hold much water the top current analogs in order are 12/14/03 12/05/03 12/25/02 01/26/11 01/03/03 12/05/02.   Of that bunch none really resemble this.  You can probably combine 12/14/03 and 01/26/11 and get something that has some similarities to this but not great 

What are your thoughts for this storm?