USCG RS

I am speaking as an emergency manager right now. Anyone who is in the path of this ice storm, you must prepare. There is the possibility of over 1" of ice somewhere and any of you in the potential path of this must be ready.

To do so I suggest 

Fill up you gas tanks.

Be prepared to be without heat, hot water and electricity for up to two weeks

Fill up on bottles water and keep it some place interior and insulated so it does not freeze.

If you lose heat.. Keep the water running to prevent frozen pipes (at least during the initial after freeze)

If the house becomes too cold, use a vehicle for heat. Run it for ten to fifteen min and warm up. Then shut off for thirty min. Continue this cycle as necessary. Ensure you are not enclosed in your garage (Carbon Monoxide kills).

Be prepared to not be able to travel for several days.

Ensure you have an adequate supply of medication.

Keep your cellular phone charged and use it sparingly when there is no electricity. You can use your vehicle to charge your phone.

Have warm clothes handy.

This is a potentially disastrous situation. Please remain vigilant, you and you alone are responsible for your safety. 

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It's just two models and not the two most reliable given the range. I would wait for the rest of the 0Z suite before determining theres been a major shift 

It says@rjay quoted me?

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Only reason and it’s probably a stupid one that I suspect this could end up moving east is the GFS which tends to overphase anytime there’s northern stream involvement isn’t really doing that more than the Euro/UKMET at all.  The southern wave as NJ pointed out I believe earlier has done what we wanted the last 36 hours but the northern stream has gone ape on the UKMET/Euro cancelling that out or even making the setup worse.  The GFS not cranking the track more NW than those two models given what they’ve trended towards deviates somewhat from what I would expect.  If those other models are getting too happy with that northern stream this could end up surprising us over the next 36 hours by moving further southeast 

I am sure there is no consensus on this yet, but has this storm's start time been moving steadily earlier? The WSW has a initiation of 12 p.m., but I wouldn't expect snow that early on LI. Are we looking at 3 p.m. or so now or am I reading things wrong?

I mean over Northern NJ.

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Why is it showing such a dry tongue with the low along the coast

2/13/2014

Please explain what you mean thanks!

Yea this seems to be moving more toward a Sat Afternoon-Sunday Morning event as opposed to a Sunday event. 

Yesterday models shifted South and then last night and this morning some came back North a bit. This is nothing more than your typical windshield wiper effect and a lot of people on here should take a break and come back tomorrow night.

Ignore the temperatures on the GFS and the Canadian. Follow the Euro and then blend in the NAM once within 48 hours.
Anyway, major positive changes regarding the track of the surface low. This opens the door for backside snows.

I would use extreme caution with the NAM, it's still flopping around wildly at H5

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It's actually above freezing almost the whole time lol

It goes from almost up to Pittsburgh South and east to Southern Maryland. Nothing could force it to travel south 

Quite possible. Need an early transfer to really get the business.

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That's too bad. You know your stuff and if you say snow I pay attention. We all make mistakes. 

No matter how many times we tell them, if they have the snow goggles on the primary could track to Buffalo and they would say all snow.

No it wouldn't.  Primary tracks too far north.  You would not avoid torched midlevels.

[mention=16501]SandySurvivor[/mention] you can't compare the effects of Michael in Georgia since it didn't make landfall there. I'm sure you saw the damage between Mexico city Beach and Panama City Florida. Michael's affects at landfall were much worse than sandy as far as destruction in the typical sense. However sandy affected a larger area and was costlier. So it depends how you define "worse". Michael was A high end cat 4 at landfall and some suggest it may be upgraded to a cat 5 in the coming years when the full analysis is completed. Not trying to downplay sandy but if it didn't occur at high tide during the moon cycle it would not have caused so much damage. 

[mention=16501]sandysurvivor[/mention] if you would like to discuss your assertion in regards to Sandy and Michael, I am willing to in here

Not a fairly strong SLP like this and certainly not that far SE. That's quite the improvement. 

Edit: I also believe the strength is due to the model honing in on the true temp gradient that will be in play here. Therefore.. Pushes it further SE and gives it a good boost of strength.

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UK is a little bit SE of where it was for the monster crush job on 1/15 at 0Z...